While the speech itself is certainly full of material that expresses Trump's anger about the election, it hardly ever directly addresses the crowd.
There are a few places where he does talk to and about the crowd though.
One is near the beginning:
Now it is up to Congress to confront this egregious assault on our democracy.
After this, we’re going to walk down and I’ll be there with you.
We’re going to walk down.
We’re going to walk down any one you want, but I think right here.
We’re going walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators, and congressmen and women.
We’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them because you’ll never take back our country with weakness.
You have to show strength, and you have to be strong.
We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated, lawfully slated.
I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.
Today we will see whether Republicans stand strong for integrity of our elections, but whether or not they stand strong for our country, our country.
And his speech ends with:
So we’re going to, we’re going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue, I love Pennsylvania Avenue, and we’re going to the Capitol and we’re going to try and give … The Democrats are hopeless.
They’re never voting for anything, not even one vote.
But we’re going to try and give our Republicans, the weak ones, because the strong ones don’t need any of our help, we’re going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.
So let’s walk down Pennsylvania Avenue.
I want to thank you all.
God bless you and God bless America.
Thank you all for being here, this is incredible.
Thank you very much.
Yes, he does ask the crowd to march to the Capitol, but what he says is: "marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard".
I can't interpret this as anything other than asking the crowd to give a visible show of support for those Republican congressmen that want to vote against the election results, but perhaps don't yet have the courage to do it.
I can easily believe that Trump truly thought that with a visible enough show of support those fence-sitting Republicans would gain enough nerve to cast their votes correctly.
So any violence would only defeat his stated goal.
So no, in terms of explicit messages to the crowd, the speech itself doesn't contain any explicit call for violence or other illegal activity.
Some parts of the speech have been interpreted differently though.
… most people would stand there at 9:00 in the evening and say, "I want to thank you very much," and they go off to some other life, but I said, "Something’s wrong here. Something’s really wrong. Can’t have happened." And we fight. We fight like Hell and if you don’t fight like Hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.
Trump says this near the end of the speech.
His "if you don’t fight like Hell" appears to be telling people to fight, but such an interpretation ignores the context.
He is talking about himself mostly (no surprise), and how even when it looks like he's lost, he doesn't simply accept defeat.
He knows he should have won, so he knows that something wrong happened, so he fights it.
But this fight is a legal fight, not a physical one.
Trump is far from articulate.
Had he used a literate speechwriter, or even allowed his speech to be edited, his use of "you" in this statement would have been much better rendered as "one", making it much more obvious that he is stating a general principle and not giving an order.
He is not saying "you the audience" here, but "you the ideal person".
We (Trump and his team) fight (the legal battle) like Hell, because if one doesn’t fight like Hell, we’re not going to have a country anymore
Trump is narcissic enough that one can easily believe that he really does think it was impossible for him to lose.
And Trump is delusional enough that one can easily believe that he really does think that those Republicans that also know there was fraud, but don't yet have the courage to publicly state it, will be motivated by the large show of support, and motivated enough that they will actually vote in his favour.
So again, no, the speech itself still doesn't contain any explicit call for violence or other illegal activity.
One must also remember that words can convey far more than what they literally say.
- It's possible that there were "dog whistle" phrases unknown to anyone not in the crowd.
- It's possible that emphasis on certain words and phrases sent subliminal messages to the crowd.
It's possible, but there hasn't been much supporting evidence of this.
Given a choice between Trump being:
- smart enough to write a speech containing secret messages that no one has been able to detect.
- delusional enough to believe the crowd could actually sway the legal process in Congress.
I'd say that most people would choose the latter.
By itself, the speech doesn't call for insurrection and violence.
However, the speech did:
- make the crowd very emotional and angry.
- send them to the Capitol.
- make them expect that something would happen.
And, when the effects of the inflammatory speeches of other Trump supporting politicians are taken into account, the speech did incite insurrection and violence, even if that isn't what Trump had intended.
And Trump's subsequent actions certainly don't indicate that he was disappointed with the riot that ensued, but again, that could simply because he interpreted it as a show of how much everyone loves him, which is surely more important to him than property damage and a few deaths.