I was reading an article in the New York Times on voter turnout titled Huge Turnout Is Expected In 2020. So, which party would benefit? I found something peculiar about how age affects voter turnout. I grabbed a screenshot of it on my phone.

Voter turnout

It shows that Trump's approval was significantly lower among those who voted under 45, tied for those from 45 to 70 or so, and somewhat higher among those over 70. (I consider this reliable given how reliably partisan Trump approval is for predicting the presidential vote choice.)

I say "benefits Republicans" because of Trump's approval being higher among young nonvoters (or at least 2018 nonvoters) than voters, and young people are underrepresented especially in midterms.

Note: the article that this page is derived from is here. I am asking this because I am writing an article on the subject.

1 Answer 1


I do not think that this single image alone supports the title assertion "higher turnout benefits Republicans."

Trump stands out as a "Republican," because of his cult of personality, and the fact that he somehow cast himself as anti-establishment. So it's somewhat plausible to think he polled better among non-voters than voters. Remember that 2018 was a midterm election, and so left-wing voters were highly motivated to flip the House and/or Senate to put brakes on him.

In other words, I think this relates more to "Were Trump supporters less likely to turn out in 2018 than non-Trump supporters?"

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    Your claim that "Trump stands out as a "Republican," because of his cult of personality", is a very collective charge against millions of republicans that don't share and even dislike his personality but still hold that he did a super excellent job in office (a person unfit to be a Pastor can sometimes be a good President). Such type of bias is unfit for this platform.
    – Jacob3
    Apr 27, 2021 at 0:06
  • @jacob That's not what that means. Trumps voters don't necessarily transfer to any republican, so the title question about whether this is true about Republicans I don't believe can be extracted from a graph about Trump in 2018 Apr 27, 2021 at 3:26

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