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One thing that has been a topic lately is special elections. Special elections are held in the US to fill vacancies. They are sometimes used as events that presage midterm performances. One thing I noticed about these is that they are all over the place. An example of a flip flopping is the special elections in Wisconsin looking good for Dems and the exact opposite for the Texas 6th district special.

Do special election performances historically translate to midterm performances?

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