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Looking at the 2021 mayoral election, I have seen more shut-out precincts in the NYC mayoral primary than in other elections in this city. I understand there are caveats to talking about the shut out precincts in a primary for electing/nominating a candidate that has no realistic chance of winning, but the NYC Democratic mayoral primary likely has in the neighborhood of 950 thousand votes.

I am curious about how these shut-out precincts behaved in the 2021 Democratic primary (total votes cast), and the 2020 presidential election (excluding 3rd party votes). I will add the additional requirement that a shut-out area needs to have more than 50 votes in the Democratic primary, because of the small numbers fallacy starts to become an issue at numbers that are smaller than that. More than 50 votes effectively implies less than 2% of the votes would go to the Republicans if there were an arbitrary number of votes cast in a given hypothetical area. Most areas of NYC did not hit this mark in 2020 though many did in 2016.

If possible, I want more detailed statistical data on the vote share in the 2020 race and primary votes cast.

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  • The reason I am asking a lot of questions about voting districts with no votes cast one way is because I research demographics of US elections. Jun 30 at 18:15
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According to the election-night results from the New York Board of Elections, of the 5,901 districts that voted in 2021's Republican mayoral primaries, there were 1,311 'shut-out' districts in which no votes were cast. 805 of these cast fifty votes or more in the corresponding Democratic primary.

In total, 123,710 votes were cast in these districts in the Democratic primary - meaning the average district cast 153.7 votes. The vote-share in these districts in the Democratic primary is shown in the pie chart below.

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604 districts were won by Eric Adams, 161 by Maya Wiley, 37 by Kathryn Garcia, and 3 by Andrew Yang. These are shown below, using election district shapefiles from nyc.gov.

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We can also examine these 805 districts in the 2020 presidential election using data from vote.nyc.

The average two-party vote was 91.9% Biden, 8.1% Trump. The 5th percentile was 82.4% Biden, 25th percentile 88.9%, 50th percentile 93.4%, 75th percentile 96.0%, 95th percentile 97.8%. The highest Democratic vote share in terms of percentage was in Assembly District 57 Electoral District 58, which had 560 votes for Biden, and just 3 for Trump. The highest Republican vote share was in AD 50 ED 78, with 411 votes for Trump against 38 for Biden.

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The total number of votes cast for the two main parties in the 2021 Republican mayoral primary shut-out districts in the 2020 general election was 404,827; 374,010 for Biden, 30,817 for Trump.

enter image description here

The code and scraped/sanitised data used in this answer can be found on GitHub should you feel like computing more stats yourself.

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  • For your Democratic primary votes, I assume you're only looking at first-picks here? You should also note that the numbers here currently exclud 126,000 absentee ballots
    – divibisan
    Jun 30 at 23:26
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    @divibisan yes, the election-night results are all that have been released so far. I'll note that in the answer.
    – CDJB
    Jun 30 at 23:27

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