Last year the Ethiopian army quickly overran the capital of Tigray (Mekelle) and drove the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) into the mountains, caves, forests etc., seemingly turning the conflict into a guerilla campaign. But in a fairly stunning comeback, the TDF retook Mekelle this summer.
I'm having a hard time understanding how/if this was possible without outside help to the TDF. They were known as having better trained forced than the Ethiopian army, but they were basically surrounded by enemies, because Eritrea was allied with the Ethiopian government in this fight (albeit the Ethiopian government disclaim Eritrean soldiers took part, although the TDF says otherwise). Furthermore Tigray has only like 6% of the population of Ethiopia.
I cannot find any info on who might have helped the TDF, and it seems pretty hard to believe they could have made this comeback all on their own. Insurgencies hardly ever win without a "safe haven" and/or help from neighboring countries or at least some foreign help. So is there at least informed speculation on who is helping the TDF?