2

I am wondering if it is likely that Russia will delay an invasion of Ukraine until the political unrest and violence in Kazakhstan comes to end.

The way I see it is that Russia may need to send in a lot of troops to Kazakhstan to restore law and order there and accomplishing this would likely mean pulling some of its troops and military hardware away from its border with Ukraine. As far as I know, the Russian military is not large as it once was and it doesn't have the manpower necessary for fighting on two fronts at that same time.

Moreover, Russia knows that it is going to get hit with huge economic sanctions by the UN if it invades Ukraine, and it probably knows that sending troops into Kazakhstan and occupying it will not be pleasing to the West/NATO and it may get hit with severe economic sanctions to force it to get out of Kazakhstan. So, I see it being in Russia's best interests to first deal with the unrest in Kazakhstan and then focus on Ukraine at a later time.

Will Russia need to delay an invasion of Ukraine until things settle down in Kazakhstan?

5
  • 1
    Russia is sending 2500 troops. One would assume Russia can manage both operations at the same time and their heavy equipment, if any, is unlikely to be of the same nature as that needed for potential Ukraine operations. Neither are the troops - beating up protesters, a la Belarus, is a different "skillset" than fighting real opponents. Remember too: it is far from given that Russia will actually choose to send troops into territory currently under Ukrainian control. Jan 7 at 21:26
  • @ItalianPhilosophers4Monica, if you recall, the Vietnam War started with the US sending in a small number of troops during the first year but then that number just kept increasing. A similar thing may happen in Kazakhstan.
    – user57467
    Jan 7 at 22:38
  • Not really comparable. Vietnam was a guerrilla war, supported by USSR and China. Kazakhstan is more like Belarus, people fed up by their local dictator who gets propped up by Russia. There is no massive weapon influx or rebel base to fight. Or do you have info the rest of us don't? Of course, it could also evolve into something like Burma, but accounting for that possibility would make your question even more speculative than it already is. Jan 7 at 23:12
  • 2
    @user57467 -- The question is flat-out asking for a prediction of a future event, seems centered on military aspects and not political/diplomatic/government/policy, and makes several questionable presumptions just to set it up. Could use some work to reformulate it.
    – Pete W
    Jan 8 at 0:08
  • 1
    One possible rewrite could be along the lines of "does Russia have the troops to fight two interventions at the same time." The US did long follow a two wars troop requirement, might be interesting if Russian official doctrine has something similar to say and if reputable analysts believe it is enough. A different question is if the Russian involvement in Kazakhstan would be likely to trigger significant Western sanctions. My guess is not, but one could go through the various public statements. The West has to reserve some sanctions escalation potential over Ukraine, after all.
    – o.m.
    Jan 8 at 10:37