American government is trying to stop the war that the Russian regime is planning in Ukraine.
The US population and political campaign donors do not need a war. A war would negatively impact the financial markets, as evidenced by the drops in major stock market indices immediately after the tensions and uncertainty associated with the conflict increased. A war in Europe would be a humanitarian catastrophe (refugees, etc) for Europe and will adversely affect the markets and drive up inflation. With an exception of the weapons manufacturers, trade would be negatively affected. Assuming that political corruption depends linearly on the market cap of the entities that carry out the corruption, we can rule out the major political donors of the US as the factor that increases the likelihood of war.
By announcing the Russian FSB military plans in real time, by making the intel public, the US is depriving Russia of the critical element of surprise. By laying bare the plans of false flag attacks in front of the entire world, the value of such staged attacks is reduced. The only remaining value is to preach to the converted, that is, to that part of the media audience that has already accepted that Ukraine is the aggressor no matter what evidence is presented to the contrary. On the other hand, roughly half of Russians believe that the West and Ukraine are the aggressors in the conflict, which is about 10-fold higher that those that believe that Russia is the aggressor. So announcing the plans of the FSB military arm is definitely not a panacea for this conflict.
If Gleiwitz was announced similarly, maybe WWII would have been delayed. Same goes for WWIII.
Announcing new sanctions on Thursday, President Joe Biden cited his administration’s moves to warn of what it knew of Putin’s intentions.
“We shared declassified evidence about Russia’s plans and false pretext so that there could be no confusion or cover-up about what Putin’s doing,” he said. “Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war. And now he and his country will bear the consequences.”
Sen. Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, noted several results of the public campaign: weakening any potential move by Putin to create a “false-flag” operation to justify war, undercutting any potential coup in Kyiv that might have appeared to be led by Ukrainians, and unifying allies who quickly denounced Putin’s aggression this week and backed tough sanctions.
“The intelligence community usually doesn’t like to share information; they want to hold it close,” Warner said in an interview. “What they’ve done is push the Russian timeline back. They’ve also, I think, allowed us to build this coalition that is virtually unprecedented.”
Ohio Rep. Mike Turner, the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, said the Biden administration’s declassifying of information was “incredibly important.”
“This has both impacted the international community’s view of Putin and has slowed his actions,” Turner said. “The goal in releasing intelligence is to permit Ukraine to plan, and any delay in Putin’s actions helped Ukraine in the planning to defend itself.”
U.S. intel accurately predicted Russia’s invasion plans. Did it matter? February 25, 2022: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/us-intel-predicted-russias-invasion-plans-did-it-matter.html