Many international sanctions have been announced against Russia after invading Ukraine in Feb. 2022. Why would these sanctions work, while the sanctions against Russia after the Crimea crisis in 2014 had little to no effect to the outcome of the Crimea crisis and Russia?
asked Feb 24, 2022 at 23:32
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14They won't work. But what else are you going to do?– AllureFeb 24, 2022 at 23:48
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They are different sanctions. Why should they both not work? Maybe you want to ask if sanctions ever have changed anything?– NoDataDumpNoContributionFeb 25, 2022 at 6:24
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1 Answer
By now, it is obvious that the 2022 sanctions against Russia are having multiple negative effects on specific individuals (oligarchs, Russian ruling elite) and on the economy of the Russian Federation as a whole. The 2014-2015 sanctions are widely viewed as too little, too late, thus not effective as a punishment and a deterrent.
REFERENCES:
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, April 5 (Reuters)
[...]
"What they're basically tying to do is force their hand and put even more pressure on (to deplete) foreign-currency reserves back home," said David Wolber, a sanctions lawyer at Gibson Dunn in Hong Kong."If they have to do that, obviously that takes away from Russia's ability to use those dollars for other activities, in essence to fund the war."
It may also put pressure on Russian demands to be paid roubles for gas by European customers, he added.
Russia was last allowed to make a $447 million coupon payment on a 2030 sovereign dollar bond, due last Thursday, which was at least the fifth such payment since the war began.
If Russia fails to make any of its upcoming bond payments within their pre-defined timeframes, or pays in roubles where dollars, euros or another currency is specified, it will constitute a default. read more
While Russia is not able to access international borrowing markets due to sanctions, a default would prohibit it from accessing those markets until creditors are fully repaid and any legal cases stemming from the default are settled.
U.S. stops Russian bond payments, raising risk of default. By Megan Davies and Alexandra Alper. Apil 5, 2022: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-cracks-down-russian-debt-payments-latest-sovereign-payments-halted-2022-04-05/
Moreover, the Russian ruble and Russian equities witnessed a sharp fall...
See very informative figures
Ira Kalish: How sanctions impact Russia and the global economy, 15 March 2022. Deloitte Insights: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-impact-of-sanctions-on-russia.html
With the ruble seesawing in value against the dollar and many educated Russians reportedly fleeing the nation, Russia's economy is facing a contraction unlike any it's ever seen before. "The current crisis will wipe out 15 years of economic development," the Institute of International Finance said in a report.
Here's how Western sanctions are pummeling Russia's economy. By Irina Ivanova. April 6, 2022. CBS News: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sanctions-russia-economy-effect/
LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - Russia faces its first sovereign external default in over a century after it made arrangements to make an international bond repayment in roubles earlier this week, even though the payment was due in U.S. dollars.
S&P on Saturday lowered the country's foreign currency ratings to "selective default" on increased risks that Moscow will not be able and willing to honour its commitments to foreign debtholders. read more
Russia has not defaulted on its external debt since the aftermath of its 1917 revolution, but its bonds have now emerged as a flashpoint in its economic tussle with Western countries. A default was unimaginable until recently, with Russia rated as investment grade in the run up to its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special military operation".
Reuters: Explainer: Clock ticks down towards a Russian default. April 9, 2022: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/clock-ticks-down-towards-russian-default-2022-04-08/
answered Apr 7, 2022 at 14:18
