A lot of people talk about blue counties and red states and counties. But I want to know how consistently blue or red different counties are. This is especially relevant given how different governor elections can deviate from partisanship dramatically given the right candidate (look at Massachusetts for example).
Since 2016, which counties have consistently gone blue or gone red in statewide races as of May 2022? In other words, which counties were always won by Democrats or Republicans at every level starting on November 8 2016?
- We don't mean every single election. Just statewide elections where county results are available. For example, if a Democrat won a county office in a coal county in southern West Virginia, this doesn't count as a Democratic win but if Manchin won it in 2018, it would count as such and therefore void it from either party's no win list since Trump won every county in West Virginia in 2016. Statewide elections must be at large; winning a county in a House election doesn't count here. Statewide specials do count. For example if Doug Jones won a Trump +20 county in Alabama that every other Democrat lost, that county would be eliminated.
- I chose 2016 because it seems to be an inflection point in the rise of straight ticket voting in large part since 0 states split their vote and 2020 had even higher correlation in vote share for President and Senate despite one outlier in the outcome (Maine). There are likely 0 counties where one party has won every single statewide race in that county.