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My question concerns congressional district VA-10, represented by Dem. Jennifer Wexton. In 2020, Wexton won reelection with a margin of 13%, underperforming Biden in the district by 6 points. According to FiveThirtyEight, her district was made 4 points more favorable to the GOP after redistricting. Considering that current generic ballot polls are around +2 GOP, there will probably be about a 6-point shift from last election (+4 Dem). Along with redistricting, there will probably be a 10-point shift in total. Since the GOP picked a strong candidate (Hung Cao), it appears that this district could potentially be competitive in November. However, why is it that every single major pundit rates this district as Safe Dem? Is it just because Biden won it with a relatively large margin?

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  • Following your math would predict a 7% margin for the Democrats. Do you consider that competitive district?
    – quarague
    Commented Jun 4, 2022 at 19:38
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    It would be 3% since 2020 lean was about D +4; also, even if it was 7%, other districts, for example RI-2, are rated likely dem even though GOP pickup chance is even less. Commented Jun 4, 2022 at 19:53

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