How much influence do the Saudis actually have over the USA, and why?

Question

Several years back, I read somewhere that a Saudi prince was living just beside the home of the Bush family.

Saudis were involved in the 9/11 terrorist attack, and the US government was unable try the Saudi government.

Jamal Khashoggi's murder was also swept under the carpet.

A few years ago, Saudis were boycotting Canada over a Saudi citizen being given asylum by Canada. No Western country was able to say a word over this action.

So, how much influence do the Saudis actually have over the USA, and why?

Answer 1

Most countries try to influence each other.

That can be in the form of public and private diplomacy of the embassy and consulates, talking to parliaments, governments, and the public. It can be in the form of public diplomacy from the home country, writing press releases designed to affect a target population in a certain way. (Compare the Ukrainian president, quoting Churchill to the Brits, talking about walls to the Germans, etc.) It can be by hiring public relations companies at home or abroad.

That is generally considered legitimate, at least if public statements disclose their origin.

Some countries try to pressure each other.

That depends on what levers those countries have. They might raise tariffs, or promise to lower them. They might give favorable or unfavorable prices for exports like oil, or refuse to sell at all. (Compare how Russia deals with their gas contracts right now.) They might provide financial guarantees to encourage trade.

That is sometimes considered legitimate. Breaking contracts is not OK, offering favorable contracts to some might fall under trade agreements a country might have signed, but generally offering good deals to friendly countries is permitted.

As to the specific case:

• Saudi Arabia has oil, and it can influence other countries with oil.
  The US has their own sources, but they are still affected by changes in global market prices and supplies. That alone makes Saudi Arabia more influential than, say, Namibia.
• Saudi Arabia has money.
  Having money to spend and invest is always a better position than asking for handouts.
• Saudi Arabia is opposed to Iran.
  For historical reasons, the US is opposed to Iran. So is the American ally, Israel. Saudi Arabia is one of the Arab countries that may put their hostility towards Iran over their hostility towards Israel.
• Relations become a habit.
  Even if objectively speaking, Saudi Arabia is not an obvious ally for the US, it has been an ally for a long time. Changing that would mean overturning established policies in both countries.

That being said, I believe that your question overstates the situation. I believe that the US government does find it convenient to work with and through Saudi Arabia, which shields Saudi Arabia from some but not all backlash their actions would otherwise bring. They are not as influential in Washington as the Canadians, or the UK, for instance.

Answer 2

It's a mix of factors, some of which are getting weaker as time goes on:

• Saudi Arabia is not only the largest oil producer, it is the producer with the largest capacity to increase production very quickly, at low cost. Which can be used to either bail out the US or pressure other OPEC countries. This makes it a key ally when there is an oil price spike. Exhibit #1 on diminishing influence: Biden's call on Saudi to increase production went unanswered and the US produces much more oil domestically than before. With global warming, oil will also lose traction.

• Saudi Arabia is, by far, the biggest buyer of US arms.

• Saudi Arabia is anti-Iran for religious and regional power reasons. Saudi sees itself as the leader of the Muslim Sunnis and Iran is the leader of the Shias. Anyone disliking Iran is automatically thumbs up in US books. Then again, the ongoing mess in Yemen shows the limits of Saudi hard power.

• Before the fall of the USSR, Saudi used to be one of the more West-oriented countries, in an area with a fair bit of Pan-Arab nationalism of the Socialist variety (Lybia, Iraq, Syria, Egypt pre-1980s...). This also made them a reliable anti-Communist bulwark when that mattered more. The Afgha Mujahideen for example were 50%/50% funded by the US and Saudi money. Exhibit #2: this doesn't matter near as much as before.

• Saudi used to have a lot of disposable income. Money talks. But with a growing population, occasionally stagnating oil prices and a non-diversified economy, they seem like they have less to throw around.

• Prior to 9/11, Saudi Arabia seemed like a conduit to influence the Arab world due to their money and prestige. Past 9/11 it is becoming more apparent that their influence can be fairly pernicious. Without the influence of Saudi-sponsored Wahhabism, Islam would be very different faith to the rest of the world. Ditto Afghanistan: Saudi sponsorship, used for both monetary and deniability reasons, routed through Pakistan, tended to reward the more religiously doctrinaire rebels, rather than the most effective militarily. Past 9/11, this is another thing that is being re-examined: Saudi's role, at least in the past, in promoting extremism, is wider knowledge. Note that, from 2006-ish on, the Saudi government cracked down fairly hard on its Wahhabi extremists: they tended to fatwa the royals themselves.

  • Saudi also led the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 towards Israel in 2002. But while it was groundbreaking, Israel also chose to ignore it, making that offer somewhat moot. As of this answer, Saudi has still not normalized relations with Israel, unlike some other Arab countries.

• Saudi's treatment of women and minorities was always a rather well-known "secret" in the past. It was easy to read up about it, but rarely front page. With the advent of the internet, the occasional uncomplimentary article about teenage protesters on death row, women being forbidden to drive or to travel alone tends to receive much more frequent coverage. And, well, there is always that "regrettable incident" with Khashoggi.

To conclude: the US government always seemed to be rather fonder of the Saudis than the US public was, but the usefulness of Saudi Arabia could be waning. Ongoing US-Iran tensions counterbalance that somewhat.