Control of legislative chambers is split between parties now in two states — Minnesota and Virginia — compared with 15 states 30 years ago.

Quoted from first NY Times article below

From this NY Times article, to this one, in the Washington Post, and in The Atlantic, it seems obvious that states are more heavily progressive or conservative, with fewer truly "purple" states.

One take comes from thisBBC article quoting Republican Senator Josh Hawley

I would predict that the effect is going to be that more and more red states are going to become more red, purple states are going to become red, and blue states are going to get a lot bluer [...] And I would look for Republicans as a result of this extend their strength in the Electoral College. And that's very good news.

One can assume there has been a liberal/progressive congressman(-woman) who has spun the scenario to their benefit as well, but I've yet to find a source to include here (open to suggestions). One related note, that could potentially be extrapolated to show a net benefit to progressive's is found here. While not directly stating that, it suggests a benefit of polarization is engagement, which has, in U.S. history, benefited progressives.

Regardless of Senator Hawley's correctness, and assumptions based on turnout and engagement, what impact do more polarized states have on the United States Federal Government?

  • Like your immediately preceding question, this is asking us to predict the future. Hawley starts out from one assumption and spins it into a narrative that suits him. Another possibility is that some of the +/-40% pro-choice minorities leave the reds, making them redder, but without much influx, losing electoral college votes by next census: we don't know and we won't until it happens. We also don't know how people will react to losing their abortion rights as opposed to taking them away from others. VTC Jul 8, 2022 at 17:25
  • @ItalianPhilosophers4Monica I did base this on an assumption, but the assumption is that at some point in history there has existed either another democratic republic meeting these conditions, or the US itself has in the past met these conditions of higher polarization than 30-50 years ago. It is an assumption, however if I knew with certainty of either cases existence I would be able to easily research myself. Since I don't know, I instead pose a question. If a democratic republic with highly polarized but homogenous-within-themselves-regions has never existed, great frame challenge.
    – TCooper
    Jul 8, 2022 at 19:42
  • Well, 2 things: has never existed, is kind of a red herring. Nation states are not massive data sets allowing us to say with certainty when X happens Y is the outcome 70% of the time. There just aren't that many federal states and even if there were, outcomes are not necessarily the same as if you found a good match, 70 years back. Second, you can start out with an assumption of an effect (migration between blues and reds) and not know the outcome of that migration at the federal level. So, no, extremely interesting question, no doubt, but too early to tell. Jul 8, 2022 at 20:55
  • I suggest changing the question a wee bit to be about how polarization has affected it in the past. Hawley seems to be essentially extrapolating from that. I.e. to make the Q a bit less speculative, make it about whether polarization was good for R insofar. As with cause-effect relationships in hindsight that may also not be answerable "beyond a reasonable doubt", but it is a fair question insofar as whether that association can be plausibly inferred because its existence is seemingly used to shape political strategy, so whether it's plausible or just nuts is an ok question in this case. Jul 8, 2022 at 22:04
  • 1
    @Fizz I think many consider the current state of American politics to be unprecedented, so there isn't really much to extrapolate from. Much of political science is based on assumptions and educated guessing, since we can't really do controlled experiments.
    – Barmar
    Aug 3, 2022 at 22:26


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