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I am running for Senate in NJ in 2024 and I believe my voting bloc is merely a plural majority of all eligible voters but maybe not a majority (and probably not current voters, btw).
If this is the case, would I lose if abstaining votes aren’t counted, not even for reconciliation powers of the certified winner?
Since New Jersey current uses a plurality voting/first past the post voting system for the office of US Senator, then the question of how a ranked choice voting/instant runoff tabulated election would work would depend on the precise wording of the bill modifying the relevant election law, and on the advice given to election officals on how to implement it. Looking at preferential systems around the the world however, the two most common methods either:
As an example, a voter who only picked a second choice candidate and no first choice would be counted under the first system, but not the second. The alternative of declaring such a ballot invalid is possible, but much rarer. Taking a specific US example, Alaska's RCV scheme allows for the kind of "bullet voting" you ask about, (and allows for a single missed preference, but not skips of 2 or more).
As a note, if you are coming from outside the main two US parties, it might be worth considering educating your potential voters about the voting system they will use. If an RCV system is implemented, you should also consider entering into an electoral pact with any other candidate with policies close to yours. Such a Minor Party Alliance achieved the election of Ricky Muir of the Australian Enthusiast Party to the Australian Senate.
To answer "Would ranked choice voting force single issue voters to vote for more than one candidate or not be counted?"
If enough people have you as number 1 you win. In the case where you do not end up winning, people who put you at #1 with no other votes, do count until you are eliminated. Then, by definition, anyone who indicated no second choice is silent on the rest of the field.
You're asking about voter intentionality which is impossible to predict in any certain terms. If we know how voters would behave then we'd be able to hack democracy a long time ago.
If your question is: "How do I maximzie my chances of winning in IRV?" then that's at least answerable.
Taking examples from Australia's lower house election, it is very common for a candidate to only receive a plurality - but not majority - of votes on the first round. To maximize their chances of winning on subsequent rounds of counting, they have to persuade voters who did not vote for them to rank them on 2nd place.
To answer your question, your chance is already not bad if you know you have a plurality of votes secured on 1st round. Your task then is to understand where are you going to get the extra votes to push you over the majority threshold. In another word, among the candidates who will be eliminated after the first round, which one are you going to appeal to so that their supporters will rank you as 2nd on the ballot.
Not sure what you mean by "if abstaining votes aren’t counted" since abstaintion votes are never counted.
