What was the median difference between governor and Senate results in 2022?

Question

I am curious about what the effect of split-ticket voting is/was in 2022. There appears to have been a decent amount of it when Warnock put the Senate election into a runoff and Brian Kemp won almost by double digits. One way to measure it is the median gap between governor versus senator.

What is the median gap between the governor and Senator in two-party percentage point margin in every state that had both a Senate and governor seat up in 2022? (Note: states that aren't reporting most of their results such as California should be factored into this because difference in margin tends to mostly hold even if margins and/or outcomes overall change.)

Answer 1

ABC News has quite a nice dashboard which makes this figure fairly easy to calculate. The median gap between the senate and the gubernatorial results is 2.43 percentage points in favor of the republican candidate. The largest gap was in Vermont, where Democrat Peter Welch won 68% of the Senate vote, with his Republican opponent winning 28%. In the Gubernatorial race, 71% of votes were case for the Republican incumbent Phil Scott, with 24% going to his Democrat opponent Brenda Siegel.

State	2-party Dem. Sen.	2-party Rep. Sen.	2-party Dem. Gov.	2-party Rep. Gov.	Gap
Vt.	70.83%	29.17%	25.26%	74.74%	91.14
N.H.	55.10%	44.90%	42.42%	57.58%	25.36
Hawaii	73.20%	26.80%	63.00%	37.00%	20.39
Ohio	47.00%	53.00%	37.00%	63.00%	20.00
Idaho	32.58%	67.42%	25.00%	75.00%	15.17
Ore.	57.73%	42.27%	51.65%	48.35%	12.17
N.Y.	56.57%	43.43%	53.00%	47.00%	7.13
Ga.	50.00%	50.00%	46.46%	53.54%	7.07
Iowa	44.00%	56.00%	40.82%	59.18%	6.37
Ariz.	52.58%	47.42%	50.00%	50.00%	5.15
Nev.	49.48%	50.52%	47.92%	52.08%	3.14
Conn.	58.00%	42.00%	56.57%	43.43%	2.87
Ala.	31.63%	68.37%	30.21%	69.79%	2.85
Fla.	41.41%	58.59%	40.40%	59.60%	2.02
Calif.	59.00%	41.00%	58.00%	42.00%	2.00
Ill.	56.57%	43.43%	55.67%	44.33%	1.79
Md.	61.00%	39.00%	61.86%	38.14%	-1.71
Wis.	49.49%	50.51%	51.52%	48.48%	-4.04
Colo.	55.67%	44.33%	58.16%	41.84%	-4.99
S.C.	38.00%	62.00%	41.41%	58.59%	-6.83
Ark.	31.96%	68.04%	35.71%	64.29%	-7.51
Pa.	52.04%	47.96%	57.14%	42.86%	-10.20
Okla	34.38%	65.63%	43.30%	56.70%	-17.85
S.D.	27.08%	72.92%	36.08%	63.92%	-18.00
Alaska	18.52%	81.48%	30.67%	69.33%	-24.30
Kan.	38.14%	61.86%	50.52%	49.48%	-24.74

Bear in mind that several states have not finished reporting yet so these figures are subject to change - I'll update once results have been completed. In particular, Illinois, Colarado, Nevada, Arizona, Maryland, Alaska & California have all reported fewer than 90% of their votes.