TL;DR
Considering all midterms since the end of WWII (i.e. 1946 onwards),
An estimated loss of 8 seats by Democrats in the House would rank as the 5th most successful midterm in terms of seat losses.
An estimated –1 to +1 Democratic seats in the Senate would rank as the 4th–7th most successful midterm in terms of seat losses.
The Democrats will likely lose the House but retain the Senate. Putting that in perspective, the President's party has won / retained control of the House in only 5 midterms and the Senate in 8 midterms (9 if you count this year's in).
Only in 5 midterms has the President's party win / retain control of a trifecta
- Bush (2002), Carter (1978), Johnson (1966), Kennedy (1962) and Truman (1950)
- The President's party has never won the House in a midterm election without also winning a trifecta.
Lastly, compared to President Biden's immediate predecessors, this is a relatively successful first midterm, especially in the House.
- –63 (Obama, 2010), –40 (Trump, 2018) and –54 (Clinton, 1994)
- with the exception of Bush who gained 6 seats in 2002
At the time of this post, the state of the election is as follows:
House
1 3 vacant House seats are assigned to the party that last held it
2 23 seats remain uncalled
Senate
| Party |
Pre-election |
Possible Outcomes3 |
Estimated change |
| Democrats |
50 |
49–51 (49 projected) |
–1 / 0 / +1 |
| Republicans |
50 |
49–51 (49 projected) |
–1 / 0 / +1 |
3 Senate election in Nevada remains uncalled and Georgia will proceed to a runoff
Assuming all the candidates win where they lead (i.e. a 221R – 214D House and an almost even Senate), this is considered to be one of the more successful midterms for the President's party in recent history.
FiveThirtyEight published an article earlier this year showing the historical performance of the President's party in midterm elections since the end of World War II (i.e. 1946 onwards).
A loss of 8 seats in the House by the Democrats would be the 5th most successful performance by the President's party in a midterm and very much on the low end of seat losses.
FiveThirtyEight also published a piece detailing the unusual circumstances that led to the success of the President's party in the 1962, 1998 and 2002 midterm House elections.
In 19 midterm elections since World War II, the president’s party lost fewer than five seats in the House once, in 1962. And they gained seats twice, in 1998 and 2002.
[ ... ]
In short, all these elections featured some sort of special circumstance: the Great Depression, the Cuban missile crisis, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the first impeachment of a president in 130 years. But such a definition is inherently fuzzy as you can potentially retrofit almost any political or news development to constitute a “special circumstance,” in the same way that almost every election gets called “the most important election of our lifetimes.”
Assuming an 8-seat loss, the Democrats would still lose the House. Putting that in historical context, it is very rare for the President's party to win / retain control of the House in a midterm election. A snapshot from Wikipedia of the same period shows that the President's party has won the House in only five midterms since the end of WWII.
- Bush (2002), Carter (1978), Johnson (1966), Kennedy (1962) and Truman (1950)
In the Senate, however, there's a mixed historical record for the President's party. Assuming there's a gain of 1 seat by the Democrats, this would be tied for the 4th most successful midterm performance in the Senate.
It is also more common for the President's party to win / retain control of the Senate in a midterm election. Using the same table from Wikipedia above, the President's party has won the Senate in nine midterms since the end of WWII.
- Trump (2018), Obama (2010), Bush (2002), Reagan (1982), Carter (1978), Johnson (1966), Kennedy (1962) and Truman (1950)
