See the following Article on a widely read Indian Newspaper website (It can be translated in English using google):
China is targeting India, not Taiwan - Dainik Bhaskar

Also, this (behind paywall): India, China and Ladakh - Caravan Magazine

The former is a widely read Hindi newspaper and for it to publish (which means making public aware, in a country like India with low standards of Journalism) that there is a good possibility that China can attack India must mean something. Even newspapers in the Hindi belt, which were mostly silent on Galwan skirmish and other inclusions, now admit this.

Later is a magazine and has history of good coverage on important issues. According to them, China is already in Indian territory in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh and while India says that it's border with China is about 3500 km, China says that the border is only about 2000 km. Such is the level of difference of opinion between 2 countries.

My question is that are there any other news reports which predict/see a possibility of the same thing that for various reasons China can attack India in coming couple of years? Possible reasons include China wanting to show it's rise in strength to USA or completely bilateral reasons between India and China (like for the sake of claiming it's share in disputed territory).

Why doesn't Chinese govt. want to resort to diplomacy with India on this issue? Rounds and Rounds of military talks didn't reach any conclusion on border issue.

Edit 1: A very recent skirmish:https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/face-off-between-indian-chinese-troops-near-lac-in-arunachal-on-december-9-minor-injuries-on-both-sides-news-agency-ani-3600347

  • Warn't China and Russia just recently invited India to join the pact?
    – r13
    Commented Nov 30, 2022 at 21:34
  • 1
    Real possibility is a very low bar. I would prefer better wording like "probable" (very high chance), "improbable" (low chance but not zero) or almost impossible (chance zero or close to zero). Commented Dec 1, 2022 at 6:56
  • "India says that it's border with China is about 3500 km, China says that the border is only about 2000 km" - citation needed from a reputable source.
    – whoisit
    Commented Dec 5, 2022 at 23:23
  • @whoisit It's in this article:caravanmagazine.in/security/india-china-ladakh
    – user795826
    Commented Dec 6, 2022 at 16:06

1 Answer 1


are there any other news reports which predict/ or see a possibility of the same thing . . . that China can attack India in coming couple of years?

I am not aware of any other news reports which suggest any meaningful likelihood of anything more that minor and contained borders skirmishes between China and India in the next couple of years.

If I had to guess, I'd imagine that the news coverage discussed in the question was mostly triggered by the 60th anniversary of the conclusion of the Sino-Indian War on November 21, 1962. The authors of those articles may have emphasized the possibility of a renewed military conflict, which is certainly possible even though a major war in the area is unlikely, because "if it bleeds, it leads" as they say in the journalism trade.

The issue is long standing and has been the subject of diplomatic negotiations and occasional military clashes since 1834. According to the CIA the current actual line of control, established in the 1962 Sino-Indian War is as follows (per the Wikipedia link above):

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The modern era military clashes can be summed up as follows:

The 1962 Sino-Indian War was fought in both disputed areas. Chinese troops attacked Indian border posts in Ladakh in the west and crossed the McMahon line in the east. There was a brief border clash in 1967 in the region of Sikkim. In 1987 and in 2013, potential conflicts over the two differing Lines of Actual Control were successfully de-escalated. A conflict involving a Bhutanese-controlled area on the border between Bhutan and China was successfully de-escalated in 2017 following injuries to both Indian and Chinese troops. Multiple brawls broke out in 2020, escalating to dozens of deaths in June 2020.

The Sino-Indian War, which ended sixty years ago, lasted 32 days, and was the most severe military action. It resulted in about 2,600-4,700 soldiers killed, and 2,700 soldiers wounded combined between the two sides, and about 4,000 Indian soldiers being captured. China won and gained control of some territory in a conflict at the height of the Cold War. The decision to fight this war was related at a diplomatic and high level policy level to conflicts between India and China related to China's conquest of Tibet. It also happened at a time when the independent Indian government was much younger and less well established, and when the People's Republic of China's regime was still in its first generation of leadership, so neither party had much political inertia holding it back.

While the issue is unresolved, it is very cumbersome for both sides to clash militarily high in the Himalayas (largely above 13,000 feet of altitude) where the bulk of the border dispute exists.

India has about 225,000 troops focused on China border who deployed mostly close to the de facto border in the region. China has 90,000-120,000 troops focused on the Indian border, the majority of whom are deployed far from the Indian border but could easily double that number with nearby troops on China's Russian border in a short amount of time.

China's forces are probably have marginally more modern weapons and equipment and are probably also marginally better trained. Both countries have modest sized nuclear weapons arsenals as well.

Any major fight would be very costly to both sides and could result in serious economic sanctions against a party viewed as an aggressor by the international community.

Also, the disputed land is very thinly populated and basically useless economically. It isn't home to strategic resources or trade routes and isn't even widely used for recreational purposes like skiing. Control of the disputed territories is basically only a point of pride between the two countries, although they do happen to be the most populous countries in the world.

Diplomatic discussions have been ongoing on and off more or less continuously for sixty years with little meaningful results.

But, cooler heads have largely prevailed so far.

There are no really concrete indications that China has resolved to be more aggressive in this conflict at this time.

If anything, India may be more prone in its current administration to be bellicose at this time. But India also has done nothing to indicate that it is likely to commence a full scale conventional war in this region in the near future.

Footnote: The disputed area that was the subject of the Sino-Indian war is shown on maps of where languages are spoken as "uninhabited" with no population that speaks any predominant language.

  • China has been continually building infrastructure on its side to aid a military invasion into India. It is a fact that it has been preparing for an invasion. It has already invaded India and captured 2000+ kms of disputed territory that was in India's possession, and appears to be planning more such mini-incursions due to the weak political response by the current Modi administration in India.
    – sfxedit
    Commented Jan 20, 2023 at 19:33

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