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The recent question Is the UK going to abandon asylum for refugees? reminded me of the BBC's April 14, 2022 One-way ticket to Rwanda for some UK asylum seekers.

A lot has happened since then.

Question: What is the current state of the plan to send those seeking asylum in the UK to Rwanda? Is there a timeframe for when the first deportations will take place?

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  • @Trilarion I think it's a decent question that no longer calls for speculation with the edit
    – CDJB
    Commented Dec 15, 2022 at 22:31
  • @CDJB The edit made it ontopic but not necessarily very interesting. The edit should motivate more why it's asking for the current state? What exactly has changed? Commented Dec 15, 2022 at 22:35
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    But at the time I close voted the question wasn't on topic. The question was significantly edited afterwards. I already commented on that edit. Commented Dec 16, 2022 at 4:57
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    Just as a comment - one could, maybe see this working out for the UK and the receiving country if there was adequate funding and the receiving country benefited from newcomers - say a sparsely populated area. Maybe - it smells off, but maybe. But Rwanda specifically is a) very densely populated - 470 sq/km, b) has a semi?-totalitarian government and c) to put it very mildly, a history of ethnic violence. That the UK govt chose it, of all places for this dubious scheme beggars belief. It is almost as if it is merely theater, a show and they expected it to be blocked. Commented Dec 16, 2022 at 8:24
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    "apparently the close vote has been "invalidated" whatever that means." That means that the one user who close voted retracted his close vote, probably because the question has been improved in the mean time. This is actually rare though because people seldom come back to question that already interacted with. But it's good practice. Commented Dec 16, 2022 at 10:41

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It's impossible to say when, or indeed whether, any deportations under this plan will take place.

Currently, the plan has been blocked by an interim measure granted by the European Court of Human Rights in the case of N.S.K. v. the United Kingdom, which directed the Government to wait until three weeks after the conclusion of the domestic judicial review process to deport the applicant to Rwanda. Once this measure was granted, the other potential deportees also filed similar appeals, and the Government was forced to drop their removal orders for the time being.

The High Court is apparently preparing to deliver its judgement on the aforementioned judicial review imminently - but whatever the result, it's likely that the case will be sent to the Supreme Court on appeal.

Even if the Government is successful in this review, and the court's judgement is not appealed, the timeframe for the departure of the first group of asylum seekers is unclear. Omar Daair, the British High Commissioner to Rwanda was asked just this question at a press conference on Wednesday:

I can't yet fully predict the timeline of when that might be, until we are informed of the verdict on Monday.

Of course, Parliament also remains sovereign, and could pass primary legislation to overrule the courts or withdraw from the ECHR altogether, meaning flights could begin immediately.

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