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Inspired by the question How can we estimate the real support of the war among Russian citizens? and discussion therein.

Is there an estimate how many Ukrainians (on Ukrainian-controlled territory, anyway) would support, or demand, an immediate ceasefire and peace talks based on present zones of control? Based on the rational argument of preventing more deaths, or "a principled position to stop the war as immoral and/or too self-destructive accepting the current and potential future costs"?

This may obviously be hard to get since Ukraine has actual martial law in place to conduct the defensive war, and the consensus in Ukrainian state seems to be that the war has to go on, so people voicing opposite position may be seen as trying to sabotage these efforts. So the preference would be to independent sources, ideally ones with base of operation outside Ukraine.

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    The question seems to be based on the assumption that Ukraine is as unfree as Russia. Do you have sources to back that assumption?
    – o.m.
    Dec 27, 2022 at 13:50
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    @o.m. Ukraine is fighting an existential war in the state of emergency. Under emergency laws, you can't use many of the freedoms even if you had them before; such as electing a new government or arguing that maybe the efforts it take to fight such a war are better spent elsewhere.
    – alamar
    Dec 27, 2022 at 14:11
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    "a principled position to stop the war as immoral". Offensive war is immoral. Defending oneself is justified. Letting your children be abducted, your women raped and your civilians muredered is immoral. Dec 27, 2022 at 15:41
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    I feel this question is suitable here only if you can provide sources of polling data done in Ukraine, and then seek our opinion on it. Otherwise, your question is indeed a duplicate of politics.stackexchange.com/q/74956/45056 and you should refer to that. If you are not satisfied with the answer ask in the comment there for more clarifications.
    – sfxedit
    Dec 27, 2022 at 17:28
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1 Answer 1

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The most recent poll results conducted by Gallup (a widely known, independent organization not based in Ukraine) are below. They indicate that the majority of Ukrainians want to fight to liberate all of the territory of Ukraine from the Russian invaders.

A clear majority -- 70% of all Ukrainians interviewed in early September -- say their country should continue fighting until it wins the war with Russia. Just over one in four (26%) favor negotiating to end it as soon as possible. [...]

Ukrainians who said their country should fight on until victory were asked a follow-up question about what would have to happen for Ukraine to declare victory. About nine in 10 (91%) said that victory would entail Ukrainian forces retaking all territory that Russia has seized since 2014, including Crimea.

Ukrainians' Views on the Future of the War With Russia

Ukrainians' Definition of Victory in the War With Russia

RJ Reinhart, "Ukrainians Support Fighting Until Victory", October 18, 2022: https://news.gallup.com/poll/403133/ukrainians-support-fighting-until-victory.aspx


The above results agree with the results of another recent poll, this one conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (based in Ukraine), below.

A new nationwide poll released this week underlined the current mood of defiance across the country. Conducted on October 21-23 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the survey found that 86% of respondents supported the continuation of Ukraine’s military counteroffensive and rejected negotiations despite Russia’s escalating airstrikes against civilian targets.

Peter Dickinson, "Poll: 86% of Ukrainians want to fight on despite Russian terror bombing", October 25, 2022: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-defiant-as-putins-terror-bombing-plunges-cities-into-darkness/

Dickinson cites the original poll results, in Ukrainian (translation mine):

Despite the Russian shelling, which destroys infrastructure and takes lives, 86% of respondents answered that the armed fight should still continue, even if the shelling continues. In particular, among them, 71% completely agree with this opinion (the remaining 16% rather agree).

By comparison, only 10% of respondents answered that it is necessary to proceed to negotiations to stop the shelling as soon as possible, even if that means making concessions to Russia.

Anton Hrushetskyy, "Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities: continuation of armed fight or a shift to negotiations", October 24, 2022: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1151

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    It's a bit odd to see 26% for negotiations asap and also 90% for retaking Crimea. While one can understand wanting to get Crimea back, Russia is nowhere near beaten enough to negotiate on any basis of restituting Crimea. Dec 28, 2022 at 1:15
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    @ItalianPhilosophers4Monica (a) To clarify the reported percentages, 26% of the total respondents were for negotiations asap, and 70% of the total respondents were for continuation of fighting until victory. Out of these 70%, 91% were for retaking all Ukrainian territory including Crimea (which makes it 70% * 91% = 64% of the total respondents). (b) I agree that Russia is not willing to negotiate on Crimea now. But it is possible for Ukraine to simply kick the Russian invaders out of Crimea in the same fashion it kicked them out of Kyiv oblast, Kharkiv oblast, as well as Kherson. Dec 28, 2022 at 14:57

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