Are there military arguments why Ukraine would blow up the Kakhovka dam?

Question

Today the Dniepro river dam at Kakhovka was breached. It is not obvious which side is responsible. While the Ukrainina side blames the Russians, the Russian side, obviously, blames the Ukrainians. So far the arguments I have heard for the Russian position are

• a comment that Ukraine had shelled the area at the dam before,
• allegation that Ukraine wants to harm the Russian-held Crimea, as part of it is supplied with water from the reservoir.

What other possible reasons are there, and what have commentators and politicians on the Russian side told so far about the alleged reasons of Ukraine blowing up the dam?

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The reason I am asking this question is a very personal deficit. I am able to read media in English and German, but not in Russian. In order to build an opinion, I'd like to understand and compare the arguments of both sides. But what I find so far is that the media I read take a lot of time to cite pro-Ukrainian positions, while the Russian arguments seem to show up in quite short sentences.

This lead me to ask you if there were arguments offered that were missing in my personal selection of media, or that did not appear to me while thinking about it. There is a one-sidedness to my question in that I feel I have heard sufficiently from one side, but not the other.

But please, do not take this as promoting a certain view of events. Evaluating the arguments should not be done here.

Answer 1

According to the official Russian government sources, the military arguments why Ukraine blew up the Kakhovka dam are as follows:

1. It serves to deprive Crimea of water.
2. It serves to relocate Ukrainian troops to the attack positions away from the Kherson region.
3. It is connected to the unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Making sense of these goals, especially of goals 2 and 3 together, is left as an exercise to the reader.

References:

Одна из целей подрыва киевским режимом Каховской ГЭС связана с тем, чтобы лишить Крым воды, заявил пресс-секретарь президента России Дмитрий Песков. Министр обороны России Сергей Шойгу заявил, что Киевский режим подорвал Каховскую ГЭС, чтобы перебросить войска в район своих наступательных действий с херсонского направления, ослабив там свои позиции. По словам министра, Киев совершил теракт, подорвав Каховскую ГЭС, это привело к затоплению значительных территорий.

МИД России назвал подрыв Каховской ГЭС террористическим актом - РИА Новости, 06.06.2023

One of the goals of blowing up by the Kyiv regime by the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant is connected to depriving Crimea of water, said Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of Russia. Minister of Defence of Russia Sergei Shoigu said that the Kyiv regime blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in order to relocate the troops into the region of its attack from the Kherson direction, weakening its positions there. According to the Minister, Kyiv carried out the terrorist act by having blown up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, and this caused flooding of substantial territories.

MoD of Russia called the breach of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant a terrorist act - RIA News, 06.06.2023

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Песков заявил, что диверсию на Каховской ГЭС совершила Украина. По его словам, она связана с неудачным контрнаступлением Киева. [...] Министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу отметил, что цель подрыва Киевом Каховской ГЭС заключается в переброске подразделений ВСУ с херсонского направления в район наступления.

Что известно о прорыве Каховской ГЭС - ТАСС, 06.06.2023

[Dmitry] Peskov [Press Secretary of the President of Russia] said that the diversion at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant was carried out by Ukraine. According to him, it [the divsersion] was connected to the unsuccessful counteroffensive by Kyiv. [...] Minister of Defense of RF Sergei Shoigu said that the goal of Kyiv's blowing up of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant consists of relocation of Ukrainian Army units from the Kherson direction to the region of the attack.

What is known about the breach of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant - TASS, 06.06.2023

Answer 2

I haven't seen official explanations, but here is an explanation by Igor Strelkov, a prominent Russian military blogger and former minister of defense in the Donetsk People's Republic (my translation):

On the situation with the blowing up of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. So far, briefly (information from the field has not yet reached, as of yesterday - everything was very calm, no one expected anything).

1. The blowing up clearly was pre-planned, purposeful and has an important place in the enemy's offensive plans.

2. So far, the following main goals seem to be:

• "wash away" our troops from the left bank of the Dnieper below Novaya Kakhovka. That includes all defensive structures, all minefields will be "washed away", all field ammunition depots will be flooded, all property which the army won't have time to evacuate will be completely or partially destroyed (and there will be a lot of this, unfortunately);

• to create conditions for capturing of the Kinburn Spit (which will also be partially flooded and turned into an island by flooding). If the enemy succeeds in capturing the Kinburn Spit now, he will unblock the Ochakov port and the mouth of the Dnieper. It will be extremely difficult to recapture the spit (in the current conditions, it will be nearly impossible);

• create a threat (in a week or two) of crossing the Dnieper in a wide area above Novaya Kakhovka - after a very significant decrease in the level of the reservoir and the same narrowing of the current water barrier. Whether they plan to cross or not is unpredictable, but the command of Russian Armed Forces will have to transfer additional Ukranian army to this sector for sure (otherwise they will definitely cross and create a bridgehead).

Original text in Russian

Strelkov also claims in the following posts, that apart from this, another advantage for Ukraine will be that the Russian Federation will now be burdened with disaster relief possibly affecting 30-50 thousand embittered refugees who may have partially or wholly lost their property as a result of the flooding. For the 10-20 thousand that will be affected on the Ukranian side, it also provides ammunition to the Ukranian for further propaganda that "the evil Muscovites blew up the hydroelectric dam."

Answer 3

The territory controlled by Russia is more affected by the destruction up the Kakhovka dam. Even the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar confirms that:

The explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP led to the flooding of the positions of the Russian military – the Ministry of Defense

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar reported that the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP caused the flooding of the positions of Russian military units. This is reported by Ukrinform.

"The positions of Russian military units were flooded, which could lead to a large–scale washing away of Russian minefields and their detonation in a chaotic manner," Malyar wrote.

(She mentioned this while explicitly blaming Russia for blowing up the Kakhovka dam).

Russian media outlet Pravda also outlines some reasons in favour of Kiev being behind the act, in its article Destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP dam: versions, causes, consequences:

The reasons for Kiev may be as follows:

• Create a media channel for further sanctions against the Russian Federation and NATO's assistance to the Armed Forces. The visit of the British Foreign Minister James Cleverley to Ukraine, which ended yesterday, falls into this context ... the adviser to the head of the office of the president, Daria Zarivna, noted that "the undermining of the Kakhovskaya HPP is fraught with a sharp desalination of the Black Sea." The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, stressed that he was shocked by the attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP, blamed Russia for it and called the incident a "war crime".

• Stop the Russian counterattack in the Kherson region;

• Flood the Russian defenses and advance themselves when the Dnieper becomes shallow — upstream.

• Deprive Crimea of water in summer;

• shift the focus from the failed counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on June 4-5.

It is doubtful that the Russian army decided to drown itself and at the same time leave the NPP and Crimea without water. Again, the river level downstream should recover soon, so if this interferes with the APU offensive, it will be temporary.

Also one of the versions for the collapse of the spans of the Kakhovskaya HPP blames Ukraine indirectly. This version claims that it collapsed itself, as it was previously half-destroyed by the bombing of the APU, when the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were in Kherson. The spans simply could not stand it — the resistance of the materials reached the limit .