4

In American politics, a tipping point state is a state that provides the first electoral vote to reach a majority. This concept can also be applied to House districts. For example in 2022's House elections, the tipping point district was New York's 17th district. What was the tipping point district in 2020's presidential election with 2022 lines, and what were the districts carried by Biden by between 0.5% and 8.5% (within 4% of the national popular vote)?

1 Answer 1

4

The Daily Kos has compiled this data as part of their Pres-by-CD project, with a spreadsheet available here. You can sort the results by margin to find the 218th most-Democratic-leaning district under the 2020 presidential results, which is Michigan's 8th district. This was won by Dan Kildee by a margin of 2 percentage points. It was previously held by fellow Democrat Elissa Slotkin, but she was redistricted to the 7th CD.

The 2022 districts which return a margin for Biden within the bounds of 0.5-8.5 percentage points when the 2020 results are mapped onto them are listed below.

District Incumbent Party Biden Trump Margin
MI-03 Hillary Scholten (D) 53.3 44.8 8.5
NV-01 Dina Titus (D) 53.2 44.7 8.5
OH-01 Greg Landsman (D) 53.5 45 8.5
IN-01 Frank Mrvan (D) 53.4 45 8.4
NY-18 Pat Ryan (D) 53.4 45 8.4
NV-04 Steven Horsford (D) 53 44.8 8.3
NY-03 George Santos (R) 53.6 45.4 8.2
IL-17 Eric Sorensen (D) 52.7 44.9 7.8
NY-22 Brandon Williams (R) 52.6 45.2 7.5
NC-01 Don Davis (D) 53.2 45.9 7.3
MN-02 Angie Craig (D) 52.5 45.4 7.2
TX-28 Henry Cuellar (D) 52.9 45.9 7
VA-07 Abigail Spanberger (D) 52.6 45.8 6.8
WA-08 Kim Schrier (D) 52 45.3 6.7
NV-03 Susie Lee (D) 52.4 45.7 6.6
NE-02 Don Bacon (R) 52.2 45.8 6.3
CA-45 Michelle Steel (R) 52.1 46 6.2
NH-01 Chris Pappas (D) 52.2 46.2 5.9
NM-02 Gabe Vasquez (D) 51.9 46.1 5.9
PA-17 Chris Deluzio (D) 52.3 46.5 5.8
CO-08 Yadira Caraveo (D) 50.8 46.3 4.6
NY-19 Marc Molinaro (R) 51.3 46.7 4.6
PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 51.8 47.2 4.6
KS-03 Sharice Davids (D) 51.2 46.7 4.5
NJ-07 Tom Kean Jr. (R) 51.1 47.3 3.9
OH-13 Emilia Sykes (D) 50.7 47.9 2.8
MI-08 Dan Kildee (D) 50.3 48.2 2
CA-40 Young Kim (R) 49.9 48 1.9
VA-02 Jen Kiggans (R) 50.1 48.2 1.9
NC-13 Wiley Nickel (D) 50.1 48.4 1.7
AZ-01 David Schweikert (R) 50.1 48.6 1.5
PA-07 Susan Wild (D) 49.7 49.1 0.6
MI-07 Elissa Slotkin (D) 49.4 48.9 0.5

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .