Why disappear government Ministers and army officials? [closed]

Question

So recently two Chinese Government Ministers and a few high ranking PLA officers have gone missing.

• China's Defense minister Li Shangfu, been missing since late August. Initially said to be a health issue, now reportedly under investigation in a corruption probe into military procurement.

• The New Foreign Minister Qin Gang, disappeared from the public spotlight in July.

If the world’s best China experts can’t figure out what happened to one of the country’s most internationally recognizable officials, then imagine what else remains hidden behind the regime’s closed doors.

• Additionally in July, Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao was removed along with his deputy Liu Guangbin and a former deputy Zhang Zhenzhong.

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Previously, it's been billionaires and public figures who have gone missing.

• Alibaba billionaire Jack Ma has rarely been seen in public since he criticized China's financial regulators.
• billionaire deal maker Bao Fan, Feb 2023
• Last year international tennis star Peng Shuai disappeared after she accused a former vice-premier of sexual assault.
• 2019 China's Interpol chief Meng Hongwei disappeared A former vice-minister of public security in China
• Aug 2021, billionaire film star and pop singer Zhao Wei in effect vanished from public life in China, with her online presence erased. Her films and TV shows were also removed from popular streaming sites.
• March 2020 billionaire real estate tycoon Ren Zhiqiang disappeared after calling President Xi a clown publicly for his handling of Covid.
• Xmen movie star Fan Bingbing went missing for about a year in 2018.
• billionaire Chinese-Canadian businessman Xiao Jianhua disappeared from a luxury hotel in Hong Kong in 2017.
• billionaire Guo Guangchang, chairman of conglomerate Fosun International, which is best known in the West for owning English Premier League football club Wolverhampton Wanderers went missing in 2015.

Why disappear government Ministers and army officials? Are their disappearances more ominous than the disappearances of the public figures?

Answer 1

Why disappear government Ministers and army officials?

There are plausible reasons for doing this rather than publicly arresting or executing a government minister or army official, and in lieu of simply firing the person disappeared from their job as a Western leader might.

High on the list is that it makes it harder to mobilize opposition to the action taken when it isn't possible to definitively say who did what to the person.

There is no prison warden or prosecutor or other government official to complain to about the appropriateness of the action to seize the person, or the fairness of the seizure. The lack of someone to complain to also keeps the merits of disputes of whether the seizure of that person was rightful.

If it all goes wrong and is indefensible, the person seized can be liquidated in secret and private kidnappers or criminals can be blamed. If that person's faction comes back into power and the person seized has been treated well in the meantime, then that person can reappear as if nothing happened and the blame for the absence can be placed on an illness or injury or vacation.

This also takes the person off the political playing board so to speak, while they are disappeared, preventing them from organizing opposition to, or challenging, the regime.

This answer, of course, addresses this political tactic in general and doesn't specifically address why these particular people were disappeared at this particular time.

Answer 2

The [perceived] advantages of such an approach have been laid out in the accepted answer. I'll add here that there's some reflection of that even in official Chinese legislation, e.g. investigations by the (Xi-established) anti-corruption committee (the National Supervision Commission) are not subject to the criminal procedure code (or supervision by the Supreme Court) in the early stages.

Shanggui is a system of secret detention operated by the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) without basis in Chinese law. Communist Party members under investigation for corruption or other violation of party rules are detained for interrogation at a “designated place and a designated time” without any contact with the world outside. Detention for interrogation may not exceed three months but may be extended one time for up to an additional three months. Detainees are typically held in locations other than police stations or jails and may be tortured, beaten, or otherwise mistreated. After they confess they are typically transferred to judicial organs for prosecution. Although in theory the procuracy is separate from the Party, prosecutors often participate in shanggui interrogation.

The new [2018] law provides for liuzhi (“detention in place” or “retention in custody”), extralegal detention not only for Party members but for any “public servants” who receive a salary from the government and who are investigated for “illegal and criminal misconduct.” Investigations are to be conducted by the Supervision Commissions; if criminal conduct is found, the person is to be handed over to the Procuratorate for prosecution. This procedure, like shanggui, is not subject to China’s Criminal Procedure Law.

Now, of course, it's less than clear [in practice] how much the recently officialized disappearance procedure has supplanted the extra-legal one.

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N.B. Torture appears pretty common in the new/revamped liuzhi system, as it was in the older shanggui. Also, the "exceptions" to notify the relatives are apparently applied systematically in all such forms of detention in China:

Upon apprehension, the family, as with RSDL [‘Residential Surveillance at a Designated Location’], shall be notified, however, there are exceptions to this rule. If the entity responsible for the detention feels notification of family could somehow undermine their investigation, it may choose to not notify. Regardless, the whereabouts of the target need not be disclosed. With RSDL, for which there is more data, it is known that these exceptions are applied systematically.

Also, these methods (torture and cut of contacts) are both basically aimed at extracting confessions, particularly because

Jiang Mingan, a Peking University law professor, elaborated further: corruption cases are "heavily dependent on the suspect's confession. (...) If he (the suspect) remains silent under the advice of a lawyer, it would be very hard to crack the case".

Unlike in many Western systems, confession extracted under torture is then acceptable [in practice] to Chinese prosecutors. The NSC passes results of their investigations to the latter.

Answer 3

A brutal result in chinese government internal power struggles.

Although in recent years president Xi has a strong grip on the "loyalty" of the party. He merely united the party under one flag. Yet it doesn't mean internal fight won't exist. Different politician can use Xi's word to attack its political opponent and its related financial supporter. And apparently Xi has his mood change all the time to change people all the time.

Don't think it is any external power that make these people disappear.

Xi has shown his determination at cutting loose from the external realm since the covid locked down. Xi simply don't care about external affair as long as his "order" is persistent. So the possiblity of external affair influencing the official decision at human resources is as low as Xi willing to give up the trade war or the claim on taiwan province.

Answer 4

It was traditional for a "disappearance" to imply a killing - a permanent disappearance.

But Jack Ma hasn't disappeared at all, and seems to have settled into a foreign teaching role: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/19/tech/jack-ma-teaching-japan-university-of-tokyo-intl-hnk/index.html

These seem to be simple cases of wrongdoing or political meddling where people step back from the media spotlight, rather than actual disappearances.

Answer 5

I found this analysis piece in Foreign Policy Journal. It links the "reshuffling" of leadership to an overall strategy by President Xi to remain in power through coming civil protests and political pressures due to economic troubles currently rippling through the Chinese economy.

Sept 7, 2023

Xi Prepares to Eat Economic Bitterness

To withstand threats from China’s economic troubles, Xi stays focused on security.

...

As much as China remains a tightly controlled society, there are indicators—many of them nuanced or easily suppressed—that could signal Xi’s hold is starting to weaken. One such signal could be elite public dissent in the shape of criticism from high-ranking officials, retired party officials, or influential business figures. Shifting or intensifying propaganda could also provide clues. An increase in nationalist messaging, for instance, could represent an attempt to rally the public around a common cause to distract from domestic issues. Similarly, a surge in internet censorship might indicate growing concerns about public sentiment or the spread of information deemed threatening to the regime.

While large-scale protests in major cities could be significant, even small, localized protests or strikes could be telling. A heavy-handed approach to these incidents might suggest heightened regime anxiety. Other potential indicators could include significant boosts in internal security spending, signaling concerns about maintaining stability, as well as abrupt policy changes, leadership reshuffles, and unexpected delays in policy implementation, any of which could hint at dissent within the CCP’s ranks about China’s economic direction. Finally, domestic displays of military might could reflect underlying authoritarian insecurities and fears of threats to the regime.

So looking for new unprecedented displays of military might.

Sept 18, 2023

• China flies 103 military planes toward Taiwan in a new high in activity the island calls harassment

Looking for increased investment in internal security.

• China's return to global stage checked by national security focus

May 2023, China's increasing focus on its own security and intensifying rivalry with the United States threatens to turn its re-engagement with the world after years of COVID curbs into a new era of isolation from the West, analysts say.

Since casting off pandemic controls that effectively shut its borders since 2020, Beijing has in recent months embarked on a series of seemingly contradictory diplomatic and business steps that have left many observers questioning its motives.

• China’s Expanded Anti-Espionage Law Threatens Business Consultants and Advisers