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I don’t think it’s controversial to say that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed this summer, with Russia gaining territory in the eastern part of the frontlines. Have there been any reliable polls in Ukraine after September 1st on what Ukrainians would like to be done moving forward?

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    "this summer, Russia gaining territory in the eastern part of the frontlines" where and when? I'm not aware of significant Russian gains since Bakhmut, which was over by the summer. "On 20 May 2023, Bakhmut had been mostly captured by Russian forces," -- wikipedia Commented Oct 26, 2023 at 20:04
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    If you look at the large bar graph (in the piece you linked) most of the territory since April has been gained by Ukraine, so I'm DV you for rather misleading statements. Commented Oct 26, 2023 at 20:19
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    I'm confused, how does territory gained in Russia's winter offensive, starting January, concern territory gained since Ukraine's summer offensive, starting July? How is the territory count even all that relevant to this Q? Frankly, if people are assessing this war based on counting dozens of square kms they are missing the point (and, yes, that includes Ukraine which is rather fond of doing so). Question is just a well without this needless nitpicking. Commented Oct 26, 2023 at 20:25
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    I wonder what the purpose of such a poll would be. The options seem to be: 1) Let Putin's army brutally murder them, or 2) Don't let Putin's army brutally murder them. It's pretty clear by now that concessions like territory do not stop Putin's army, so they're not even worth considering. Commented Oct 27, 2023 at 11:24
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    The body of the question, in conjunction with the comments, its clear that this question is not being asked in good faith. You're promoting the futility of fighting against Russia, which is one of their propaganda goals of exhausting support for Ukraine. Please, be clear with what you're trying to compare as well. If you're talking for Jan 1st, talk about the year, not the Summer. If you're talking the Summer counter-offensive, leave out events before it. Remove opinion or add citations to support them. There is more than one way to measure success than land exchanges.
    – David S
    Commented Oct 27, 2023 at 18:10

1 Answer 1

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The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted a telephone survey between 29 September and 9 October 2023 involving 1,010 respondents living in Ukraine.

The key results are as follows.

DYNAMICS OF READINESS FOR TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS TO END THE WAR AS SOON AS POSSIBLE: RESULTS OF A TELEPHONE SURVEY CONDUCTED FROM SEPTEMBER 29 TO OCTOBER 9, 2023

Readiness for territorial concessions

Since May 2022, KIIS in its own surveys regularly asks question about the population's readiness for territorial concessions in order to achieve peace and preserve independence as soon as possible. Now, in September-October 2023, we asked this question again to assess the dynamics of public moods, which allows, in particular, to understand how the views of the population have changed over the summer of 2023.

Graph 1 shows the respondents' answers. As can be seen, compared to May 2023, the share of those who are ready to agree to territorial concessions to achieve peace and preserve the independence of Ukraine has increased from 10% to 14%. Together with this the absolute majority of the population - 80% (in May 2023 - 84%) - remains confident that no territorial concessions are acceptable, even if this means that the war will last longer and there will be other threats.

enter image description here

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

In early October 2023, KIIS completed its own regular survey and we are processing the results, in particular, analyzing the dynamics of public moods compared to the last surveys (conducted until the summer of 2023). In the coming weeks, KIIS will publish various results.

There are certain alarming trends in public moods that require separate attention and analysis. However, we consider the basic readiness of Ukrainians for territorial concessions to be fundamental, which more integrally reflects Ukrainians' sense of the current situation in the country and their own well-being. Therefore, we are opening a series of our publications with this question.

Perhaps there will be supporters of the "theory of treason" who will interpret the growth of readiness for territorial concessions as extremely pessimistic. However, we emphasize that context is important for interpretation. About 4 difficult months passed between the current survey and the previous one, with bloody battles and devastating shelling (and, in addition, with internal political tension due to corruption issues and with difficulties in relations with foreign friends). Most likely, many Ukrainians had more optimistic expectations for the beginning of autumn 2023 before the beginning of summer.

However, despite all these factors, the absolute majority of Ukrainians do not lose heart and retain confidence in the importance of continuing the fight against the enemy.

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    Under optimal polling conditions, with the typical 2-3 percentage point 95% confidence intervals, the difference between 10% and 14% would likely not be significant. Given the polling issues in a war zone, even less so.
    – Obie 2.0
    Commented Oct 27, 2023 at 5:20
  • @Obie2.0 that being said I’d be surprised if people weren’t tired of the war at this point. Commented Oct 27, 2023 at 14:17
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    @JonathanReez The Ukrainian's are very tired of it. They look forward to victory. Maybe you don't understand the situation. In this war, Ukraine is on the defense. Ukraine is under existential threat. The type of threat that Russia readily says they will use nuclear weapons against. Ukrainians would prefer to be tired instead of dead.
    – David S
    Commented Oct 27, 2023 at 18:00
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    @DavidS afaik the vast majority of people on occupied territories are not dead. There are exceptions like Bucha but Russia isn’t exactly trying to exterminate all Ukrainians. So it’s a choice between war and conceding the territories for temporary peace. Commented Oct 27, 2023 at 18:54
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    @JonathanReez "So it’s a choice between war and conceding the territories for temporary peace." Which is another way of saying do they want war now, or war later with less rights/claims to their land. They don't want war. They just aren't convinced that ceding territory will provide them the respite from war like it would to an uninvolved 3rd party like you or me. They aren't convinced that a 5 year ceasefire will benefit them as much as it does the aggressor.
    – David S
    Commented Oct 27, 2023 at 20:09

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