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A proposed deal/strategy to block an RN win in the 2nd round:

The high turnout on Sunday means some 300 constituencies are now facing potential three-way run-offs which, in theory, favour the RN.

To prevent these three-way run-offs and block the RN, France’s centre-right and centre-left politicians have long practiced what they call a “republican front”, whereby the third-placed candidate drops out of the race and urges voters to rally behind the second-placed candidate. [...]

On the left, the Socialist and LFI leaders also called on their third-placed candidates to drop out to block the RN.

The conservative Republicans party, which split ahead of the vote with a small number of its lawmakers joining forces with the RN, has yet to take a stance.

I wonder though what that means if the deal is followed as such, in terms of seat distribution between the LFI and Macron's party. How many LFI candidates are 3rd and would have to drop out vs. how many in Macron's party?

N.B. a closer reading suggests that Macron's party didn't quite endorse the idea exactly as LFI proposes:

Edouard Philippe explicitly called on the candidates from his party to drop out if they were in third position and rally behind candidates from the centre-left to the centre-right, excluding the RN and LFI.

Emphasis on "and LFI" mine. So, Macron's party candidates will apparently not drop out if they're 3rd behind RN & LFI.

Essentially, would Macron's party be nearly wiped out (in parliament) if the deal is followed exactly as LFI proposes, given that overall Macron's party was third in terms of vote share in the 1st round? Or are there many constituencies where Macron's party isn't 3rd nonetheless?

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  • Considering that the whole purpose of this surprise action is to prevent a Le Pen majority, and it was likely calculated much before, I believe odds are that it will be successful. It is also visible on Le Pen's face - she is not happy et al. Another question, what will happen 4 years later.
    – Gray Sheep
    Commented Jul 1 at 16:39
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    How is this question different from the previous one that is self-answered on a similar topic?
    – ohwilleke ♦
    Commented Jul 1 at 18:35
  • Seems to be not very different from your other question: politics.stackexchange.com/q/88085/38304
    – Morisco
    Commented Jul 2 at 10:23
  • This question is similar to: Do we know a lower bound or the exact number of 3-way races in France's 2nd round of elections in 2024?. If you believe it’s different, please edit the question, make it clear how it’s different and/or how the answers on that question are not helpful for your problem.
    – Morisco
    Commented Jul 2 at 10:23
  • @ohwilleke: it may have implications for the other Q, but it's not exactly the same Q, if you just look at the answers, for a start.
    – Make StackExchange GREAT 4ever
    Commented Jul 2 at 12:21

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I took the data compiled in this source, and got this results (I specifically took LFI vs Ensemble, which is Macron's party. I excluded other candidates from the left coalition and the center coalition, and only took into account districts where there are 3 ways races):

  • LFI first : 31
  • LFI second : 38
  • LFI third : 54
  • Ensemble first : 37
  • Ensemble second : 61
  • Ensemble third : 63

EDIT

Other way to see these numbers, is to take them according to the number of proposed candidate for the first round. For LFI there were 233 declared candidates (as they are part of a coalition), and for Ensemble there were 489 declared candidates.

  • LFI first : 13.3%
  • LFI second : 16.3%
  • LFI third : 23.1%
  • Ensemble first : 7.5%
  • Ensemble second : 12.4%
  • Ensemble third : 12.8%
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