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Pistorius is much more popular than Scholz and indeed any other candidate (source):

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FT (2024-11-21):

“To put it plainly, we have two possible candidates — one is the most popular politician in Germany, and the other is the least popular politician,” Maximilian Mumm, SPD mayor of the west German town of Maifeld, told the Financial Times. “That basically says it all.” ...

Mumm said he would not put up campaign posters with Scholz’s face if he is named as the party’s official candidate.

“He is not a leader,” Mumm told the FT. “That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have other qualities — he’s intelligent, he has talents. But he’s not the kind of person who can explain to voters what direction he wants to take the country.”

DW (2024-11-19):

"Many party colleagues view Scholz very critically and would prefer Pistorius," said another regional SPD chair in the state of Lower Saxony. "We would welcome it if Scholz were to reflect and take the appropriate steps."

But on 2024-11-21, Pistorius bowed out (via Instagram video), leaving Scholz the SPD's leading candidate and the SPD heading for a disastrous defeat.

So, why is the SPD going with Scholz instead of Pistorius? (How was this decision arrived at? What political, cultural, institutional, etc. factors might explain this decision?)

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  • 6
    If Pistorius bowed out, what choice does the SPD have? Do you maybe want to know why he bowed out?
    – NoDataDumpNoContribution
    Commented Nov 23 at 7:18
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    That poll doesn’t seem to be about perceived popularity and performance as chancellor. That Pistorius is perceived as being a good Minister of Defence does not necessarily translate to a general impression.
    – MisterMiyagi
    Commented Nov 23 at 9:36
  • @NoDataDumpNoContribution Often when a politician "bows out" after letting the rumours run for a while, it's because they were trying to secure a majority behind the scenes and couldn't make it. No idea how hard he tried, but you can't take his word for it. They rarely say "yeah I would have liked to, but they didn't want me" in this situation.
    – Stefan
    Commented Nov 23 at 15:25
  • @Stefan So basically the question comes down to "why did he bow out, did he not have a majority or did he simply not want to run now?". And I guess the answer is that we don't know because we don't know what he really wants for himself nor do we know what the SPD really thinks. There is no transparency from the outside in such selection processes typically.
    – NoDataDumpNoContribution
    Commented Nov 24 at 10:42
  • @NoDataDumpNoContribution I interpreted the question as simply assuming that he wanted to run and asking to speculate about the thought process of those major party figures that opposed him. But actually I agree with you that it's not so clear that the assumption is valid.
    – Stefan
    Commented Nov 24 at 10:50

1 Answer 1

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We are approaching a snap election. Officially nothing has happened yet, but informally the major government and opposition parties have agreed on a timetable which should lead to a date in February.

(Certain formal steps have to happen first, and then it is "no more than 60 days" from that date. The opposition briefly called for an immediate start to that procedure, but they saw reason that an election directly after Christmas is going to stress everybody.

According to German election law, parties or solo candidates have to take formal steps to get onto the ballot. For the large parties, the formal procedure was already underway in the local and regional party chapters with a September 2025 target date. Smaller ones are scrambling. These formal steps are required to get candidates and party lists for proportional representation onto the ballot.)

The "Kanzlerkandidat" is not a formal positon in the German election system. The chancellor has to be elected by the parliament and it is understood that he or she is elected from the parliament, even if Art. 63 GG does not spell that out. However, the "Kanzlerkandidat" needs to be printed on election posters, etc., and that means he or she should be selected half a year or even a year before the election. That time is no longer available.

The debate in the SPD went:

  • Chancellor Scholz is a bit colorless and he represents the failed coalition.
  • Minister Pistorius is very popular.
  • Traditionally, a chancellor from the own party gets the chance to run again. If one wants to a generation change, the German system would, in theory, allow that between elections. In practice, it happens while the party is in opposition.
  • Senior party members did not want a months-long succession debate in the brief time before the election.
  • It would be quite impossible to consult the grassroots party members in time.
  • Minister Pistorius did not want to be seen as disloyal and unreliable.

So Pistorius declared that he did not want to run for Kanzler, all but killing the debate which had started despite the time pressure.

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  • But why did Pistorius not want to run? Really just because the time is running short? He could maybe increase the result for his party s bit.
    – NoDataDumpNoContribution
    Commented Nov 23 at 7:20
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    I would add another factor. According to all recent polls, the SPD Kanzlerkandidat is not going to become the next chancellor, the CDU leads all polls with a little more than 30% of the votes and no other party gets above 20%. So maybe Pistorius doesn't want to be a candidate if he knows he is going to lose. He may have better chances of actually becoming chancelor if Scholz is burdened with the lost election now and Pistorius is the SPD candidate in the next election.
    – quarague
    Commented Nov 23 at 7:44
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    @NoDataDumpNoContribution The most probable outcome: The CDU wins the election, Merz becomes Chancellor, Pistorius becomes Vice Chancellor after Scholz steps down due to the lost election. So not a bad outcome for Pistorius.
    – J Fabian Meier
    Commented Nov 23 at 11:53
  • @NoDataDumpNoContribution, guessing about his personal motivation, beyond what he said, is out of scope. The internal debate in the SPD was "who can win" and "no time, go with the incumbent." Pistorius' statement made it the latter.
    – o.m.
    Commented Nov 23 at 13:09
  • I think the last point here is burying the lede.
    – Jack Aidley
    Commented Nov 23 at 17:33

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