Questions tagged [forecasting]

Questions about forecasting, which is the estimation of future trends or the outcome of future events based on data from the present and the past.

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7 votes
1 answer

How does Skopos Labs (cited by predict the probability of legislation passing? What is their track record & is it the first of its kind?

This answer to Progress moving US oil and gas pipeline cybersecurity regulation and oversight from the TSA to the DOE? (HR 370) begins: H.R.370 died in the last Congress. The new bill for the 117th ...
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2 votes
0 answers

Why are pre-election polls even less accurate on 2020 Presidential election comparing to 2016? [closed]

Whatever the final outcome of 2020 presidential election would be, it seems that pre-election polls were wrong about Trump — twice in a row and twice as much (circa 8pp) comparing to 2016 forecasts (...
-2 votes
1 answer

How are the odds in FiveThirtyEight's election forecasts calculated? [closed]

How are the odds in FiveThirtyEight's political election forecasts calculated? For example, Bernie is predicted to win the majority of votes with odds of "1 in 2 (46%)" as of 2/23/2020. This is ...
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9 votes
2 answers

Which seat 'predicts' the outcomes of UK General Elections the best?

I remember reading about a swing seat in the UK that always 'predicted' the outcomes of the election (e.g. if the Conservatives were the largest party then the seat would swing Conservative, etc.). Do ...
  • 209
18 votes
7 answers

Why do election predictions by FiveThirtyEight and Predictwise differ so much?

Here are the current U.S. presidential election forecasts from Predictwise and FiveThirtyEight. Clinton Trump Predictwise 67 33 FiveThirtyEight 52 47 ...
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7 votes
1 answer

Is there any resource which tracks the accuracy of Stratfor's predictions/forecasts?

Stratfor Global Intelligence is a reasonably high profile private company which uses publicly available information and geopolitical methodology to analyze the situation in the world and provides the ...
  • 90.7k
5 votes
1 answer

Did any political campaign in USA ever officially acknowledge practically using Nate Silver's model or numbers?

Did any political campaign in USA ever officially acknowledge practically using Nate Silver's (of 538 blog) models and/or numbers in some way, at least to check their own polls/predictons? If it was ...
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