Questions tagged [forecasting]

Questions about forecasting, which is the estimation of future trends or the outcome of future events based on data from the present and the past.

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1answer
142 views

How are the odds in FiveThirtyEight's election forecasts calculated? [closed]

How are the odds in FiveThirtyEight's political election forecasts calculated? For example, Bernie is predicted to win the majority of votes with odds of "1 in 2 (46%)" as of 2/23/2020. This is ...
9
votes
2answers
721 views

Which seat 'predicts' the outcomes of UK General Elections the best?

I remember reading about a swing seat in the UK that always 'predicted' the outcomes of the election (e.g. if the Conservatives were the largest party then the seat would swing Conservative, etc.). Do ...
18
votes
7answers
9k views

Why do election predictions by FiveThirtyEight and Predictwise differ so much?

Here are the current U.S. presidential election forecasts from Predictwise and FiveThirtyEight. Clinton Trump Predictwise 67 33 FiveThirtyEight 52 47 ...
7
votes
1answer
541 views

Is there any resource which tracks the accuracy of Stratfor's predictions/forecasts?

Stratfor Global Intelligence is a reasonably high profile private company which uses publicly available information and geopolitical methodology to analyze the situation in the world and provides the ...
3
votes
0answers
116 views

Did any political campaign in USA ever officially acknowledge practically using Nate Silver's model or numbers?

Did any political campaign in USA ever officially acknowledge practically using Nate Silver's (of 538 blog) models and/or numbers in some way, at least to check their own polls/predictons? If it was ...