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Questions tagged [polling]

A sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons

2
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1answer
47 views

How to convey poll results with shifting demographics?

Poll results that try to show a change (or lack thereof) in an opinion over time are usually reported similarly to this answer: As of mid-December 2018, 59% of Republicans thought it was 'very ...
5
votes
0answers
98 views

Evidence in support of highly myopic retrospective voting

I am reading Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. In Chapter 6 and 7, evidence is shown that "voters' retrospective assessments of the economy are quite myopic." ...
2
votes
1answer
70 views

How do the RealClearPolitics polling averages work?

It's common for poll analysts to discuss the RCP average, and well-known that the RCP average is a simple arithmetic mean of the polls under consideration. But what are the other rules? In particular ...
1
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0answers
50 views

Who coined the term “herding” in the context of polling?

Nate Silver defines herding as the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign On November 5 2012 Drew Linzer wrote a post ...
4
votes
1answer
180 views

Are there some surveys for the motivation of Syrian asylum seekers preference for Germany (once they reach Europe)?

For a bit of background: In 2015 and 2016, Europe became a destination of choice for an estimated 650,000 Syrians. However, this represents only about 5% of all Syrians displaced by the conflict ...
2
votes
1answer
166 views

How did Labour party members in England vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum?

Polling data is readily available on how members of the Labour across Britain voted in the Brexit referendum: 65% for remain. However, this exit poll includes Labour voters across Great Britain*, and ...
30
votes
4answers
4k views

Are opinion polls always representative of the extreme opinions?

Opinion polls involves a choice. The people who are being asked to take the poll can say yes or no. I suspect that this leads to such a significant amount of self-selection bias that I am starting ...
3
votes
1answer
133 views

Are public opinion and expert views of ideological distances between political parties generally consistent?

This question is inspired by two papers I encountered, which came to the same conclusion using different sources to quantify the ideological distance between political parties in various countries: ...
3
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0answers
83 views

What are the main differences between UK and US (NEP) exit polls, methodologically?

The UK since 2001-2005 has apparently managed to get extremely accurate exit-polls: Prior to 2001 the methods used had been different, and the accuracy of predictions based on exit polls was rather ...
3
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1answer
150 views

Is exit-polling more accurate than pre-election polling?

It has been claimed so in a comment which cites a FT article that I can't read (right now). Presumably the topic is interesting enough to have been discussed elsewhere. I'm mainly interested in the ...
6
votes
1answer
304 views

Were the British always among the most skeptical about free movement of people in the EU?

... or did they become this way only after the EU enlargement in Central and Easter Europe (after the fall of the Iron Curtain)? If there's a need to back up the premise of the question... here's a ...
3
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2answers
262 views

Why are (public) political polls typically allowed even very close to the elections despite of their apparent disruptive effect on voters perception?

This is a follow-up of this accepted answer for the question: "Restricting polls because of the “Bandwagon effect”": forbidding opinions for months would be detrimental to the development of ...
5
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3answers
303 views

Are there any polls on how the Civil Service feels about Brexit?

There have been some pro-Brexit politicians that claim the Civil Service is against Brexit: Civil servants will "do their best to frustrate" Brexit, Lord Lawson has said in an interview with BBC ...
1
vote
2answers
216 views

What might “behavioral microtargeting with psychographic messaging” mean, in the context of political action committee research?

The New York Times article Bolton Was Early Beneficiary of Cambridge Analytica’s Facebook Data includes the passage: In the two years that followed, Mr. Bolton’s super PAC spent nearly $1.2 million ...
3
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0answers
67 views

Is there a democratic country that bans pre-election polls for a relatively long period before the actual elections? [duplicate]

This question is related to this answer: To make a tactical vote, you need an estimate how much votes each candidate is probably going to get. Only then, looking at the numbers, you can decide ...
2
votes
1answer
296 views

Are racist attitudes correlated with income?

Although there are plenty of polls that try to ascertain the racial views of different racial and political groups, I can't find any polls that look into the relation, if any, between income and ...
3
votes
2answers
274 views

How predictive of the House Popular Vote is the Generic Ballot?

The site FiveThirtyEight has an "updating estimate of the generic ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in a congressional election". My question is predictive of the ...
1
vote
1answer
184 views

What is the opinion of non-Catalan Spanish citizens regarding the use of force to subdue the Catalan independence?

Recently there have been a lot of news regarding the police involvement in the Catalan independence referendum, where 2 people were seriously injured. Have there been any polls in "mainland" Spain ...
9
votes
3answers
692 views

To what degree do Americans think of Europe as a singular political and cultural entity?

Often when I read questions here, people often used the word "Europe", and ask what politics are like "in Europe", and how voters are like "in Europe", and how cultural differences influence politics "...
-2
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1answer
101 views

Does diverging attitudes towards Slovenia coincide with Trump's election?

Which Country Is America’s Strongest Ally? For Republicans, It’s Australia mentions that Slovenia is one of the countries which Republicans most favourably view compared to Democrats. I can ...
4
votes
1answer
117 views

How large of an effect did the internet regulation proposed by the conservative manifesto have on the election?

To the tech-savvy world, the part of the manifesto that dealt with internet regulation was... laughably insane and likely impossible to implement. But what effect did it have on the election results?...
1
vote
1answer
85 views

Does polling during election campaigns bias policy selection or affect voter turnout? [duplicate]

Do individuals and parties running for a democratically elected office, in employing polls and focus groups to decide on, and tinker with, policy, end up choosing policy based on popularity rather ...
8
votes
1answer
676 views

To what extent do election polls affect the election results?

Has there been any rigorous research about what effect do opinion polls have on the final election results? Do real life voters strategize their vote based on the polling averages? I assume that ...
3
votes
1answer
267 views

What are US libertarians' views on abortion according to polls/surveys?

Someone challenged me in a comment on one of my posts as to what the breakdown of libertarians' views on abortion was (the context was USA). While there are subjective guesses (the comment theorized ...
5
votes
1answer
263 views

Are there any methods that compensate for phenomenons such as Shy Tory factor and Bradley effect?

This is a followup question on this one (Why were pre-election polls and forecast models so wrong about Donald Trump). The accepted answer tells us about the possible reasons such as Shy Tory Factor ...
11
votes
1answer
342 views

Is there polling to suggest that a majority of United Kingdom citizens would favour a codified constitution?

I'm wondering if there is any recent (say within the last decade) polling which would suggest that citizens of the United Kingdom hold a strong opinion one way or another on the subject of a codified ...
6
votes
1answer
505 views

What is the opinion of people of Japan about Article (9)?

Under Article 9 of Constitution of Japan, Renunciation of war : The "Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling ...
9
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1answer
263 views

What causes recent SPD gains in opinion polls?

From Opinion polling for the German federal election, 2017, poll were quite stable between 2014 and 2017, only with a gradual decline of CDU/CSU with a moderate rise by AfD since late 2015¹: Source: ...
16
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2answers
2k views

Political Preferences of Software Engineers in USA?

I'm interested in a breakdown of the political preferences of software engineers in the United States. I read a comment here: The majority of developers are also overwhelmingly left leaning The ...
0
votes
1answer
164 views

What explains the big “D” shift in Utah in the last 4 years?

The following map kinda makes sense from the "why" perspective in most places, but one area that kind of threw me off as hard to explain was Utah experiencing major shift towards Democrats, in nearly ...
19
votes
3answers
2k views

Did the candidacy of Ross Perot swing the 1992 presidential election?

Reading the Wikipedia article on the 1992 presidential candidacy of Ross Perot, one would get the impression that it made no difference to the outcome of the election. However, after looking at the ...
3
votes
1answer
109 views

Do any jurisdictions take steps to protect people's votes from being “outed” by the polls?

It's well established that vote anonymity is an important part of representative democracy (discussed elsewhere on this site). I was listening to 538 podcast today, and they were discussing phone ...
4
votes
1answer
142 views

Is there evidence that phone polling led to people's votes being “outed”?

It's well established that vote anonymity is an important part of representative democracy (discussed elsewhere on this site). I was listening to 538 podcast today, and they were discussing phone ...
4
votes
1answer
145 views

Is the National Front's presidential election chances dependent on which party opposes it in the run-off?

In the 2002 French presidential election, Jacques Chirac from the centre-right Rally for the Republic won with a large margin against Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front. I have a suspicion that ...
1
vote
1answer
175 views

Where can I do my own analysis of exit poll data?

All the media sites do their own rollups of the exit poll data, but the dimensions they pick are static. Is there any site where I can pivot on my own sets of dimensions? E.g. I see married men went ...
2
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0answers
52 views

What makes a law proposal eligible for voting by the public?

For example, in Florida they are voting for: Amendment 3 · Tax exemption for totally and partially disabled first-responders Results expected after 7 PM EST Amendment 5 · Tax exemption for low-income,...
1
vote
2answers
274 views

If I show up after polls close can I vote?

Suppose, today, the presidential election in the US. I show up after the polls have officially closed however there are still a few people in line waiting to vote would I still be permitted, by law ...
33
votes
1answer
7k views

Were there any U.S. Presidents that were very unpopular when elected?

I've read in a few news sources that whoever wins the current 2016 presidential election will already have generally low (below 45%) favorability among the general U.S. population, even among people ...
3
votes
1answer
228 views

Are Opinion Polls as accurate as they once were in America?

In Britain it is generally recognised that opinion polling is not what it once was. At the last two important elections (the General Election of May 2015, and the EU Referendum of June 2016) they have ...
19
votes
2answers
1k views

Have pollsters examined the possibility of a “shy Tory factor” in the 2016 presidential election?

Most of the polling for the 2016 US presidential election have been favourable to Hillary Clinton. One of the biggest questions I have right now is whether the polling is accurate. In particular, ...
5
votes
3answers
688 views

Why did Gary Johnson's support erode in late October 2016?

We all know that he had been, a few months back, a viable candidate in the Libertarian party, for progressives and conservatives, who were disaffected with Trump as the GOP nominee with his disgusting ...
24
votes
1answer
2k views

Phenomenon where politically incorrect candidates do better in actual elections than in polls?

I've long hypothesised that a certain phenomenon may exist, and I wonder if there's any actual research on the subject. I'm asking for research, statistics, etc. on a macro level. However, I think it'...
1
vote
1answer
174 views

FiveThirtyEight: Polls Only vs Now Cast

Here are the latest forecast probabilities on FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight Clinton Trump --------------- ------- ----- Polls Only 51.0 49.0 Now Cast 56.8 ...
-2
votes
1answer
265 views

What is the percentage of Republican voters who would/wouldn't vote for a female President?

Are there any polls which estimate what percentage of Republican voters would/wouldn't vote for a female Presidential candidate in a general election if said candidate was in line with their political ...
5
votes
2answers
124 views

Who was polled in “The Latest Polls”?

Innumerable times lately, I have heard the phrase "the latest polls" thrown around. In many cases, it appears that major news outlets (CNN, FOX, etc.) are conducting their own polls. Is this correct?...
8
votes
1answer
473 views

Attitude of Bernie and Clinton supporters towards Trump

Is there a comparison of what attitude self-identified Bernie supporters have towards Donald Trump compared to what attitude self-identified Hillary Clinton supporters have towards Donald Trump? Are ...
3
votes
0answers
55 views

How widely established are the laws against reporting on polling during election?

In comments on " Is the "no poll reporting till voting is done" specific to Brexit vote? " I was made aware that other countries also have rules against reporting on polling numbers on ...
10
votes
1answer
253 views

Is the “no poll reporting till voting is done” specific to Brexit vote?

I saw mentions that nobody could tell the preliminary outcome of Brexit vote, because it was illegal to report on any numbers before voting concluded. Is this rule/law specific to Brexit referendum, ...
3
votes
1answer
75 views

How to extract the chance of winning from questions in the poll?

Polling is very new to me and I have a naive question: Looking HuffPost Pollster, I am trying to understand how are numbers like "Clinton: 49%, Trump: 37%" obtained. First of all, in every poll a ...
3
votes
1answer
222 views

Does year of birth, or age, influence opinions on the atomic bombing of Japan?

Older Americans are more likely to support the atomic bombing of Japan than younger Americans, according to a poll by Pew Research: 70 years after Hiroshima, opinions have shifted on use of atomic ...