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Questions tagged [polling]

A sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons

5
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1answer
104 views

Which UK polls//surveys provide information at a constituency-by-constituency level, for the upcoming EU elections in May 2019?

Coming as no surprise whatsoever, the 2019 EU elections will be an interesting event in the UK. Notable features seem to be: The election may act as a proxy vote on brexit, and on various parties' ...
2
votes
0answers
83 views

Are there any polls on the new Swiss immigration referendum question?

Apparently after the "betrayal" of the first Swiss immigration-limiting referendum (of Feb 2014) by their parliament, which passed a substantially watered down law (in 2016), there's now going to be ...
2
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0answers
83 views

How did Indonesia's unofficial presidential election tally finish with “head-snapping” speed?

The NPR News item and podcast In Indonesia, Joko Widodo Secures Another 5-Year Term As President quotes Indonesian president Joko Widodo, and continues: "Let us reunite as family. Let us strengthen ...
4
votes
0answers
170 views

Are farmers in the Great Plains aware of the Dust Bowl? [closed]

I'm curious if farmers in the Great Plains are aware today of the history of the Dust Bowl, including its causes. Are there any surveys or polls on the matter among farmers, like there are (also among ...
77
votes
9answers
16k views

Why do UK politicians seemingly ignore opinion polls on Brexit?

Looking at the Brexit opinion polls it seems that the public is consistently in favor of staying in the EU ever since July 2017, with the gap between 'leave' and 'remain' slowly widening over time. So ...
6
votes
1answer
232 views

Is there a survey of the public opinion whether no-deal is preferable to the November deal?

A number of UK politicians prefer a no-deal Brexit to the November deal agreed between the government and the EU (but twice rejected by the UK Parliament). Yet the majority of the MPs also to rejected ...
2
votes
0answers
570 views

What is Maduro's approval among Venezuelan expatriates?

The president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, has an approval rating of around 20% (e.g. this survey). These studies do have flaws, since some may not properly account for his support in the lowest-...
2
votes
1answer
313 views

Do polls indicate support for post-Brexit freer trade?

The Bank of England Brexit GDP scenarios show a blue area depicting a "close relationship" scenario and a "less close" relationship scenario. It is clear that when they use the label "less close" they ...
2
votes
1answer
100 views

How to convey poll results with shifting demographics?

Poll results that try to show a change (or lack thereof) in an opinion over time are usually reported similarly to this answer: As of mid-December 2018, 59% of Republicans thought it was 'very ...
8
votes
1answer
267 views

Evidence in support of highly myopic retrospective voting

I am reading Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. In Chapter 6 and 7, evidence is shown that "voters' retrospective assessments of the economy are quite myopic." ...
2
votes
1answer
74 views

How do the RealClearPolitics polling averages work?

It's common for poll analysts to discuss the RCP average, and well-known that the RCP average is a simple arithmetic mean of the polls under consideration. But what are the other rules? In particular ...
2
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0answers
77 views

Who coined the term “herding” in the context of polling?

Nate Silver defines herding as the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign On November 5 2012 Drew Linzer wrote a post ...
4
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1answer
197 views

Are there some surveys for the motivation of Syrian asylum seekers preference for Germany (once they reach Europe)?

For a bit of background: In 2015 and 2016, Europe became a destination of choice for an estimated 650,000 Syrians. However, this represents only about 5% of all Syrians displaced by the conflict ...
3
votes
1answer
249 views

How did Labour party members in England vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum?

Polling data is readily available on how members of the Labour across Britain voted in the Brexit referendum: 65% for remain. However, this exit poll includes Labour voters across Great Britain*, and ...
31
votes
4answers
5k views

Are opinion polls always representative of the extreme opinions?

Opinion polls involves a choice. The people who are being asked to take the poll can say yes or no. I suspect that this leads to such a significant amount of self-selection bias that I am starting ...
3
votes
1answer
150 views

Are public opinion and expert views of ideological distances between political parties generally consistent?

This question is inspired by two papers I encountered, which came to the same conclusion using different sources to quantify the ideological distance between political parties in various countries: ...
4
votes
0answers
146 views

What are the main differences between UK and US (NEP) exit polls, methodologically?

The UK since 2001-2005 has apparently managed to get extremely accurate exit-polls: Prior to 2001 the methods used had been different, and the accuracy of predictions based on exit polls was rather ...
3
votes
1answer
445 views

Is exit-polling more accurate than pre-election polling?

It has been claimed so in a comment which cites a FT article that I can't read (right now). Presumably the topic is interesting enough to have been discussed elsewhere. I'm mainly interested in the ...
8
votes
3answers
441 views

Were the British always among the most skeptical about free movement of people in the EU?

... or did they become this way only after the EU enlargement in Central and Easter Europe (after the fall of the Iron Curtain)? If there's a need to back up the premise of the question... here's a ...
3
votes
2answers
333 views

Why are (public) political polls typically allowed even very close to the elections despite of their apparent disruptive effect on voters perception?

This is a follow-up of this accepted answer for the question: "Restricting polls because of the “Bandwagon effect”": forbidding opinions for months would be detrimental to the development of ...
6
votes
3answers
408 views

Are there any polls on how the Civil Service feels about Brexit?

There have been some pro-Brexit politicians that claim the Civil Service is against Brexit: Civil servants will "do their best to frustrate" Brexit, Lord Lawson has said in an interview with BBC ...
1
vote
2answers
298 views

What might “behavioral microtargeting with psychographic messaging” mean, in the context of political action committee research?

The New York Times article Bolton Was Early Beneficiary of Cambridge Analytica’s Facebook Data includes the passage: In the two years that followed, Mr. Bolton’s super PAC spent nearly $1.2 million ...
2
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0answers
70 views

Is there a democratic country that bans pre-election polls for a relatively long period before the actual elections? [duplicate]

This question is related to this answer: To make a tactical vote, you need an estimate how much votes each candidate is probably going to get. Only then, looking at the numbers, you can decide ...
2
votes
1answer
308 views

Are racist attitudes correlated with income?

Although there are plenty of polls that try to ascertain the racial views of different racial and political groups, I can't find any polls that look into the relation, if any, between income and ...
3
votes
2answers
342 views

How predictive of the House Popular Vote is the Generic Ballot?

The site FiveThirtyEight has an "updating estimate of the generic ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in a congressional election". My question is predictive of the ...
1
vote
1answer
196 views

What is the opinion of non-Catalan Spanish citizens regarding the use of force to subdue the Catalan independence?

Recently there have been a lot of news regarding the police involvement in the Catalan independence referendum, where 2 people were seriously injured. Have there been any polls in "mainland" Spain ...
9
votes
3answers
863 views

To what degree do Americans think of Europe as a singular political and cultural entity?

Often when I read questions here, people often used the word "Europe", and ask what politics are like "in Europe", and how voters are like "in Europe", and how cultural differences influence politics "...
-2
votes
1answer
108 views

Does diverging attitudes towards Slovenia coincide with Trump's election?

Which Country Is America’s Strongest Ally? For Republicans, It’s Australia mentions that Slovenia is one of the countries which Republicans most favourably view compared to Democrats. I can ...
4
votes
1answer
124 views

How large of an effect did the internet regulation proposed by the conservative manifesto have on the election?

To the tech-savvy world, the part of the manifesto that dealt with internet regulation was... laughably insane and likely impossible to implement. But what effect did it have on the election results?...
1
vote
1answer
102 views

Does polling during election campaigns bias policy selection or affect voter turnout? [duplicate]

Do individuals and parties running for a democratically elected office, in employing polls and focus groups to decide on, and tinker with, policy, end up choosing policy based on popularity rather ...
8
votes
1answer
964 views

To what extent do election polls affect the election results?

Has there been any rigorous research about what effect do opinion polls have on the final election results? Do real life voters strategize their vote based on the polling averages? I assume that ...
2
votes
1answer
282 views

What are US libertarians' views on abortion according to polls/surveys?

Someone challenged me in a comment on one of my posts as to what the breakdown of libertarians' views on abortion was (the context was USA). While there are subjective guesses (the comment theorized ...
4
votes
1answer
368 views

Are there any methods that compensate for phenomenons such as Shy Tory factor and Bradley effect?

This is a followup question on this one (Why were pre-election polls and forecast models so wrong about Donald Trump). The accepted answer tells us about the possible reasons such as Shy Tory Factor ...
10
votes
1answer
413 views

Is there polling to suggest that a majority of United Kingdom citizens would favour a codified constitution?

I'm wondering if there is any recent (say within the last decade) polling which would suggest that citizens of the United Kingdom hold a strong opinion one way or another on the subject of a codified ...
6
votes
1answer
581 views

What is the opinion of people of Japan about Article (9)?

Under Article 9 of Constitution of Japan, Renunciation of war : The "Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling ...
8
votes
1answer
380 views

What causes recent SPD gains in opinion polls?

From Opinion polling for the German federal election, 2017, poll were quite stable between 2014 and 2017, only with a gradual decline of CDU/CSU with a moderate rise by AfD since late 2015¹: Source: ...
16
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2answers
2k views

Political Preferences of Software Engineers in USA?

I'm interested in a breakdown of the political preferences of software engineers in the United States. I read a comment here: The majority of developers are also overwhelmingly left leaning The ...
0
votes
1answer
165 views

What explains the big “D” shift in Utah in the last 4 years?

The following map kinda makes sense from the "why" perspective in most places, but one area that kind of threw me off as hard to explain was Utah experiencing major shift towards Democrats, in nearly ...
18
votes
3answers
3k views

Did the candidacy of Ross Perot swing the 1992 presidential election?

Reading the Wikipedia article on the 1992 presidential candidacy of Ross Perot, one would get the impression that it made no difference to the outcome of the election. However, after looking at the ...
2
votes
1answer
119 views

Do any jurisdictions take steps to protect people's votes from being “outed” by the polls?

It's well established that vote anonymity is an important part of representative democracy (discussed elsewhere on this site). I was listening to 538 podcast today, and they were discussing phone ...
4
votes
1answer
230 views

Is there evidence that phone polling led to people's votes being “outed”?

It's well established that vote anonymity is an important part of representative democracy (discussed elsewhere on this site). I was listening to 538 podcast today, and they were discussing phone ...
4
votes
1answer
148 views

Is the National Front's presidential election chances dependent on which party opposes it in the run-off?

In the 2002 French presidential election, Jacques Chirac from the centre-right Rally for the Republic won with a large margin against Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front. I have a suspicion that ...
1
vote
1answer
312 views

Where can I do my own analysis of exit poll data?

All the media sites do their own rollups of the exit poll data, but the dimensions they pick are static. Is there any site where I can pivot on my own sets of dimensions? E.g. I see married men went ...
2
votes
0answers
60 views

What makes a law proposal eligible for voting by the public?

For example, in Florida they are voting for: Amendment 3 · Tax exemption for totally and partially disabled first-responders Results expected after 7 PM EST Amendment 5 · Tax exemption for low-income,...
1
vote
2answers
287 views

If I show up after polls close can I vote?

Suppose, today, the presidential election in the US. I show up after the polls have officially closed however there are still a few people in line waiting to vote would I still be permitted, by law ...
33
votes
1answer
7k views

Were there any U.S. Presidents that were very unpopular when elected?

I've read in a few news sources that whoever wins the current 2016 presidential election will already have generally low (below 45%) favorability among the general U.S. population, even among people ...
2
votes
1answer
276 views

Are Opinion Polls as accurate as they once were in America?

In Britain it is generally recognised that opinion polling is not what it once was. At the last two important elections (the General Election of May 2015, and the EU Referendum of June 2016) they have ...
18
votes
2answers
1k views

Have pollsters examined the possibility of a “shy Tory factor” in the 2016 presidential election?

Most of the polling for the 2016 US presidential election have been favourable to Hillary Clinton. One of the biggest questions I have right now is whether the polling is accurate. In particular, ...
5
votes
3answers
710 views

Why did Gary Johnson's support erode in late October 2016?

We all know that he had been, a few months back, a viable candidate in the Libertarian party, for progressives and conservatives, who were disaffected with Trump as the GOP nominee with his disgusting ...
24
votes
1answer
3k views

Phenomenon where politically incorrect candidates do better in actual elections than in polls?

I've long hypothesised that a certain phenomenon may exist, and I wonder if there's any actual research on the subject. I'm asking for research, statistics, etc. on a macro level. However, I think it'...