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Questions tagged [polling]

A sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons

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3
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0answers
23 views

Is there an online source for pre-1942 UK general election polls from the British Institute of Public Opinion?

I know that there are records of UK general election polls from before 1942, since I have read them in back issues of Cavalcade in the British Library (because I'm fun). I'm looking for an online ...
1
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1answer
145 views

What percentage approval rating does Trump have among self-described liberals?

I have heard that Trump has an overall approval rating of 42% nationwide based on unbiased polls. I consider this number accurate because it uses many polls to get this number. However, I heard that ...
8
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2answers
3k views

Polling on Impeachment

Any polls out there indicating the public's pulse on the impeachment? Specifically interested in moderates or independents and swing states.
5
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1answer
235 views

Is the Tea Party still a significant political force in the US?

It seem unclear if this was its heyday, but Wikipedia mentions that: One 2013 survey found that, in political terms, 20% of self-identified Republicans stated that they considered themselves as ...
23
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4answers
9k views

Is current (November 2019) polling about Democrats lead over Trump trustworthy?

Right now, many polls (such as this ABC/Washington Post poll from November 5th) claim that the Democratic candidates have double digit leads over Trump. In the 2016 elections, however, polls suggested ...
5
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1answer
183 views

How important is healthcare reform/plan to Democratic voters?

All four leading Democratic candidates have spelled out, in more or less detail, their vision for a healthcare reform/plan. But how important is the issue to Democratic voters, i.e. are there any ...
4
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1answer
112 views

Are there any polls in France on further EU expansion in the Balkans?

On October 18, the BBC reported that At the EU summit, French President Emmanuel Macron led a small number of countries in rejecting the Western Balkan countries from moving forward with their ...
1
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1answer
190 views

Is there a longitudinal survey of US public attitudes toward the perceived “dual loyalty” of immigrants?

A 2003 survey on a US nationally representative sample found that 71.3% of respondents agreed that “It’s OK for immigrants to be loyal to both their home country and the U.S.” [statement that] was ...
5
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3answers
243 views

Is it possible to have a 22 point difference between polls taken over the same time period?

So I checking the state of the Democratic Nomination polls today and I saw this head scratcher: Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/21 21 28 15 10 5 ... Warren +7 CNN 10/17 - 10/20 34 19 16 6 ...
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1answer
119 views

In CBC's poll tracker, why do the probabilities of winning not add up to 100%?

In CBC's poll tracker at: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/, probabilities of winning the 2019 Canadian federal election are provided. Currently, these are 11% Liberal ...
34
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5answers
6k views

What is the purpose of polls published by the organization that they are asking about which have leading/confusing questions?

My understanding of polling is that it is done to gauge public perception and opinion of political actors and policies in order to further shape a candidates actions. In order to do that, one would ...
3
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1answer
159 views

Are there any pre-Brexit-referendum polls on UK electorate preference for a strongman leader?

An article in The Economist this summer says: The gridlock in Parliament, where mps have been caught between loyalty to their constituents, their party and the instruction of the referendum, has ...
4
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1answer
121 views

Are there any public opinion polls in the US on them starting military action against Iran?

Give the recent international events rising tensions between the US and Iran, have there any public opinion polls been conducted in the US asking whether the US should do more militarily against Iran? ...
5
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1answer
213 views

Warren vs Biden in the polls: how sudden was the change?

It's been pointed out to me (hat tip to dolphin_of_france) that some recent polling puts Warren ahead of Biden in the Democratic primary voting intention. How sudden was this change? How much [of ...
12
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2answers
1k views

Do we know what “hardness” of Brexit people actually wanted in the referendum, if there had been other choices available?

As worded, the referendum was between two choices - leave or stay. But realistically, if there had been a mechanism for it, there would have been other choices on the list, reflecting the nuances of ...
4
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1answer
262 views

Why does Biden show two trend-lines with his polls?

Looking at the poll numbers shown by realclearpolitics.com for 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Specifically Biden's poll numbers. There seems to be two trend-lines for him instead of one. One ...
12
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3answers
564 views

What is the public opinion in Hong Kong about the protests? How many of them support it?

The Hong Kong protests are widely supported by many people across the globe. This isn't surprising, since it's easy to sit at home in front of your computer and upvote posts on Facebook, but I reckon ...
0
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1answer
160 views

Which polls count towards DNC debate requirements (especially fall)?

There are polls released almost daily pertaining to the Democratic nomination. In order to attend the September 12–13 round of round of debates, candidates need to get donations from 130,000 unique ...
3
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2answers
2k views

Why are there no polls of Tom Steyer yet?

Tom Steyer, a billionaire, announced he was campaigning for president on July 9 and pledged to spend 100 million dollars of his own fortune to make that happen. Enough for a significant advertisement ...
1
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1answer
74 views

How to poll on a budget

I would like to conduct a study examining the correlation between the Democratic candidates people support (and the policies these people espouse) and the positions of the candidates themselves (based ...
5
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1answer
113 views

Which UK polls//surveys provide information at a constituency-by-constituency level, for the upcoming EU elections in May 2019?

Coming as no surprise whatsoever, the 2019 EU elections will be an interesting event in the UK. Notable features seem to be: The election may act as a proxy vote on brexit, and on various parties' ...
2
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0answers
98 views

Are there any polls on the new Swiss immigration referendum question?

Apparently after the "betrayal" of the first Swiss immigration-limiting referendum (of Feb 2014) by their parliament, which passed a substantially watered down law (in 2016), there's now going to be ...
2
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0answers
150 views

How does Indonesia's unofficial presidential election tally finish with “head-snapping” speed?

The NPR News item and podcast In Indonesia, Joko Widodo Secures Another 5-Year Term As President quotes Indonesian president Joko Widodo, and continues: "Let us reunite as family. Let us strengthen ...
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0answers
201 views

Are farmers in the Great Plains aware of the Dust Bowl? [closed]

I'm curious if farmers in the Great Plains are aware today of the history of the Dust Bowl, including its causes. Are there any surveys or polls on the matter among farmers, like there are (also among ...
81
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9answers
16k views

Why do UK politicians seemingly ignore opinion polls on Brexit?

Looking at the Brexit opinion polls it seems that the public is consistently in favor of staying in the EU ever since July 2017, with the gap between 'leave' and 'remain' slowly widening over time. So ...
6
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1answer
263 views

Is there a survey of the public opinion whether no-deal is preferable to the November deal?

A number of UK politicians prefer a no-deal Brexit to the November deal agreed between the government and the EU (but twice rejected by the UK Parliament). Yet the majority of the MPs also to rejected ...
2
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0answers
695 views

What is Maduro's approval among Venezuelan expatriates?

The president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, has an approval rating of around 20% (e.g. this survey). These studies do have flaws, since some may not properly account for his support in the lowest-...
2
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1answer
329 views

Do polls indicate support for post-Brexit freer trade?

The Bank of England Brexit GDP scenarios show a blue area depicting a "close relationship" scenario and a "less close" relationship scenario. It is clear that when they use the label "less close" they ...
3
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1answer
154 views

How to convey poll results with shifting demographics?

Poll results that try to show a change (or lack thereof) in an opinion over time are usually reported similarly to this answer: As of mid-December 2018, 59% of Republicans thought it was 'very ...
9
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1answer
345 views

Evidence in support of highly myopic retrospective voting

I am reading Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. In Chapter 6 and 7, evidence is shown that "voters' retrospective assessments of the economy are quite myopic." ...
2
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1answer
80 views

How do the RealClearPolitics polling averages work?

It's common for poll analysts to discuss the RCP average, and well-known that the RCP average is a simple arithmetic mean of the polls under consideration. But what are the other rules? In particular ...
2
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0answers
92 views

Who coined the term “herding” in the context of polling?

Nate Silver defines herding as the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign On November 5 2012 Drew Linzer wrote a post ...
4
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1answer
212 views

Are there some surveys for the motivation of Syrian asylum seekers preference for Germany (once they reach Europe)?

For a bit of background: In 2015 and 2016, Europe became a destination of choice for an estimated 650,000 Syrians. However, this represents only about 5% of all Syrians displaced by the conflict ...
3
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1answer
270 views

How did Labour party members in England vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum?

Polling data is readily available on how members of the Labour across Britain voted in the Brexit referendum: 65% for remain. However, this exit poll includes Labour voters across Great Britain*, and ...
31
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4answers
5k views

Are opinion polls always representative of the extreme opinions?

Opinion polls involves a choice. The people who are being asked to take the poll can say yes or no. I suspect that this leads to such a significant amount of self-selection bias that I am starting ...
3
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1answer
157 views

Are public opinion and expert views of ideological distances between political parties generally consistent?

This question is inspired by two papers I encountered, which came to the same conclusion using different sources to quantify the ideological distance between political parties in various countries: ...
4
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0answers
171 views

What are the main differences between UK and US (NEP) exit polls, methodologically?

The UK since 2001-2005 has apparently managed to get extremely accurate exit-polls: Prior to 2001 the methods used had been different, and the accuracy of predictions based on exit polls was rather ...
3
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1answer
458 views

Is exit-polling more accurate than pre-election polling?

It has been claimed so in a comment which cites a FT article that I can't read (right now). Presumably the topic is interesting enough to have been discussed elsewhere. I'm mainly interested in the ...
8
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3answers
457 views

Were the British always among the most skeptical about free movement of people in the EU?

... or did they become this way only after the EU enlargement in Central and Easter Europe (after the fall of the Iron Curtain)? If there's a need to back up the premise of the question... here's a ...
3
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2answers
361 views

Why are (public) political polls typically allowed even very close to the elections despite of their apparent disruptive effect on voters perception?

This is a follow-up of this accepted answer for the question: "Restricting polls because of the “Bandwagon effect”": forbidding opinions for months would be detrimental to the development of ...
6
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3answers
567 views

Are there any polls on how the Civil Service feels about Brexit?

There have been some pro-Brexit politicians that claim the Civil Service is against Brexit: Civil servants will "do their best to frustrate" Brexit, Lord Lawson has said in an interview with BBC ...
1
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2answers
344 views

What might “behavioral microtargeting with psychographic messaging” mean, in the context of political action committee research?

The New York Times article Bolton Was Early Beneficiary of Cambridge Analytica’s Facebook Data includes the passage: In the two years that followed, Mr. Bolton’s super PAC spent nearly $1.2 million ...
2
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0answers
71 views

Is there a democratic country that bans pre-election polls for a relatively long period before the actual elections? [duplicate]

This question is related to this answer: To make a tactical vote, you need an estimate how much votes each candidate is probably going to get. Only then, looking at the numbers, you can decide ...
2
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1answer
328 views

Are racist attitudes correlated with income?

Although there are plenty of polls that try to ascertain the racial views of different racial and political groups, I can't find any polls that look into the relation, if any, between income and ...
3
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2answers
368 views

How predictive of the House Popular Vote is the Generic Ballot?

The site FiveThirtyEight has an "updating estimate of the generic ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in a congressional election". My question is predictive of the ...
1
vote
1answer
225 views

What is the opinion of non-Catalan Spanish citizens regarding the use of force to subdue the Catalan independence?

Recently there have been a lot of news regarding the police involvement in the Catalan independence referendum, where 2 people were seriously injured. Have there been any polls in "mainland" Spain ...
9
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3answers
995 views

To what degree do Americans think of Europe as a singular political and cultural entity?

Often when I read questions here, people often used the word "Europe", and ask what politics are like "in Europe", and how voters are like "in Europe", and how cultural differences influence politics "...
-2
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1answer
110 views

Does diverging attitudes towards Slovenia coincide with Trump's election?

Which Country Is America’s Strongest Ally? For Republicans, It’s Australia mentions that Slovenia is one of the countries which Republicans most favourably view compared to Democrats. I can ...
4
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1answer
126 views

How large of an effect did the internet regulation proposed by the conservative manifesto have on the election?

To the tech-savvy world, the part of the manifesto that dealt with internet regulation was... laughably insane and likely impossible to implement. But what effect did it have on the election results?...
1
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1answer
112 views

Does polling during election campaigns bias policy selection or affect voter turnout? [duplicate]

Do individuals and parties running for a democratically elected office, in employing polls and focus groups to decide on, and tinker with, policy, end up choosing policy based on popularity rather ...