Questions tagged [polling]

Questions about general and technical aspects of polling: a sampling of opinions on a subject. Questions about SPECIFIC POLLING RESULTS should use [public-opinion] instead.

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2answers
375 views

According to political scientists, what, if anything, are the benefits of election polling to a liberal democracy?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_democracy About 3 months and a million news-years ago, the pollsters and election analysts were taking a kicking for not predicting the US elections accurately ...
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1answer
221 views

What, if anything, has been done to account for mail-in votes in 2020 exit poll data?

Traditionally, exit polls are done by physically presenting a subset of voters with an anonymous survey as they exit the polling place. In normal years, this provides a fairly good picture of the ...
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1answer
199 views

"Polling fails" observed in US elections quantified as right- or left-leaning? [closed]

Define a polling fail s.t. a particular candidate C, running in ... a particular election E, s.t. ... pre-E polls (collectively, averaged) predict C to achieve vote share S0, but ... results from E ...
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2answers
175 views

Does trust of strangers influence how likely someone is to answer a poll from a stranger?

I've always wondered about the type of people who take surveys. Who among us would take a random call in the middle of the day from a perfect stranger and spending the next 30 minutes answering dozens ...
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2answers
13k views

Why was the Economist model so sure Trump was going to lose compared to other models?

The Economist model never showed Trump as a clear favorite. In 2020, it said he has had less than 10% chance of winning the electoral college. In October 2020 it said that his chances were ...
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1answer
4k views

What does asterisk mean in RealClearPolitics polls?

I noticed that some polls on the RealClearPolitics site are marked with an asterisk. What does the asterisk mean?
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3answers
277 views

Is it advantageous to lie in political polling answers?

When a person is asked questions by a poll, are there any rational reasons why they might lie with their answers in order to achieve their goals for the election? For example, if they say they are ...
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2answers
193 views

How should I interpret the US election poll results conducted on Twitter? They seem to contradict polls conducted elsewhere

On a popular US poll twitter account, I found an interesting phenomenon. (Similar thing also has been happening on other US poll twitter accounts.) Most of the polls it has (re)tweeted are favoring ...
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2answers
4k views

In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States that are: "the closest races" and "close to the tipping point"?

In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
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0answers
123 views

What is the name for a graph showing the estimated electoral vote share based on polling over time?

I'm looking for the right words to use to find a trend graph that shows how the US electoral vote count would look over time. "If the election were held today" kind of thing. This isn't ...
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2k views

What are the differences between these groups polled by FiveThirtyEight?

Polling by FiveThirtyEight categorizes polls by these groups: A = ADULTS RV = REGISTERED VOTERS V = VOTERS LV = LIKELY VOTERS Is it correct that "LV" is a proper subset of "RV" ...
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1answer
133 views

Historical data on how the reliability of polling data depends on time remaining until a US presidential election

Just for entertainment, I wrote a program that simulates the US presidential election of 2020. (I was interested in seeing whether, for example, predictit's relatively low probability of Biden's ...
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1answer
186 views

How do US pollsters select people for their polls?

As we approach the presidential election, polling statistics seem to be referenced more than ever. I've never had the opportunity to be included in polls. This leads me to wonder; Who is polled? How ...
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2answers
272 views

Has anything been published about how YouGov determined the figures they are using for predicted turnout by age?

YouGov's multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model is seen as one of the most reliable pre-election predictors of what results will look like in the UK. Their turnout predictions by ...
5
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1answer
161 views

What is an MRP poll, and is it more accurate than a conventional poll?

On Nov 27th, the polling company YouGov released an “MRP” poll that predicts the Conservative party winning a majority of 68 in the upcoming General Election. The poll has been treated as practically ...
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4answers
10k views

Was the November 2019 polling about the Democratic Party's lead over Trump trustworthy?

In November 2019, many polls (such as this ABC/Washington Post poll from November 5th) claimed that the Democratic candidates had double-digit leads over Trump. In the 2016 elections, however, polls ...
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3answers
608 views

Is it possible to have a 22 point difference between polls taken over the same time period?

So I checking the state of the Democratic Nomination polls today and I saw this head scratcher: Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/21 21 28 15 10 5 ... Warren +7 CNN 10/17 - 10/20 34 19 16 6 ...
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1answer
189 views

In CBC's poll tracker, why do the probabilities of winning not add up to 100%?

In CBC's poll tracker at: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/, probabilities of winning the 2019 Canadian federal election are provided. Currently, these are 11% Liberal ...
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5answers
6k views

What is the purpose of polls published by the organization that they are asking about which have leading/confusing questions?

My understanding of polling is that it is done to gauge public perception and opinion of political actors and policies in order to further shape a candidate's actions. In order to do that, one would ...
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2answers
403 views

Are there standardized ways to quantify political division?

Political division seems to be one of the main issues of our time, with countless articles, op-eds, and studies describing how the US and other countries (the UK comes immediately to mind) are ...
6
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1answer
391 views

Why are two trend-lines shown with Biden's poll results?

Looking at the poll numbers shown by realclearpolitics.com for the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Specifically, Biden's poll numbers seem to have two trend-lines instead of one. One hovers ...
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1answer
209 views

Which polls count towards DNC debate requirements (especially the fall debates)?

There are polls released almost daily pertaining to the Democratic nomination. In order to attend the September 12–13 round of debates, candidates need to get donations from 130,000 unique donors and ...
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2k views

Why are there no polls of Tom Steyer yet?

Tom Steyer, a billionaire, announced he was campaigning for president on July 9 and pledged to spend 100 million dollars of his own fortune to make that happen. Enough for a significant advertisement ...
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1answer
134 views

How to poll on a budget?

I would like to conduct a study examining the correlation between the Democratic candidates people support (and the policies these people espouse) and the positions of the candidates themselves (based ...
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246 views

How does Indonesia's unofficial presidential election tally finish with "head-snapping" speed?

The NPR News item and podcast In Indonesia, Joko Widodo Secures Another 5-Year Term As President quotes Indonesian president Joko Widodo, and continues: "Let us reunite as family. Let us strengthen ...
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1answer
179 views

How to convey poll results with shifting demographics?

Poll results that try to show a change (or lack thereof) in an opinion over time are usually reported similarly to this answer: As of mid-December 2018, 59% of Republicans thought it was 'very ...
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1answer
458 views

Evidence in support of highly myopic retrospective voting

I am reading Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. In Chapter 6 and 7, evidence is shown that "voters' retrospective assessments of the economy are quite myopic." ...
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1answer
193 views

How do the RealClearPolitics polling averages work?

It's common for poll analysts to discuss the RCP average, and well-known that the RCP average is a simple arithmetic mean of the polls under consideration. But what are the other rules? In particular ...
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0answers
147 views

Who coined the term "herding" in the context of polling?

Nate Silver defines herding as the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign On November 5 2012 Drew Linzer wrote a post ...
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4answers
5k views

Are opinion polls always representative of the extreme opinions?

Opinion polls involve a choice. The people who are being asked to take the poll can say yes or no. I suspect that this leads to such a significant amount of self-selection bias that I am starting to ...
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1answer
330 views

What are the main differences between UK and US (NEP) exit polls, methodologically?

The UK since 2001-2005 has apparently managed to get extremely accurate exit-polls: Prior to 2001 the methods used had been different, and the accuracy of predictions based on exit polls was rather ...
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2answers
591 views

Is exit-polling more accurate than pre-election polling?

It has been claimed so in a comment which cites an FT article that I can't read (right now). Presumably the topic is interesting enough to have been discussed elsewhere. I'm mainly interested in the ...
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559 views

Why are (public) political polls typically allowed even very close to the elections despite of their apparent disruptive effect on voters perception?

This is a follow-up of this accepted answer for the question: "Restricting polls because of the “Bandwagon effect”": forbidding opinions for months would be detrimental to the development of ...
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419 views

What might "behavioral microtargeting with psychographic messaging" mean, in the context of political action committee research?

The New York Times article Bolton Was Early Beneficiary of Cambridge Analytica’s Facebook Data includes the passage: In the two years that followed, Mr. Bolton’s super PAC spent nearly $1.2 million ...
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0answers
95 views

Is there a democratic country that bans pre-election polls for a relatively long period before the actual elections? [duplicate]

This question is related to this answer: To make a tactical vote, you need an estimate how much votes each candidate is probably going to get. Only then, looking at the numbers, you can decide that ...
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2answers
395 views

How predictive of the House Popular Vote is the Generic Ballot?

The site FiveThirtyEight has an "updating estimate of the generic ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in a congressional election". My question is predictive of the ...
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1answer
121 views

Does polling during election campaigns bias policy selection or affect voter turnout? [duplicate]

Do individuals and parties running for a democratically elected office, in employing polls and focus groups to decide on, and tinker with, policy, end up choosing policy based on popularity rather ...
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2answers
1k views

To what extent do election polls affect the election results?

Has there been any rigorous research about what effect opinion polls have on the final election results? Do real life voters strategize their vote based on the polling averages? I assume that there is ...
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1answer
587 views

Are there any methods that compensate for phenomenons such as Shy Tory factor and Bradley effect?

This is a follow-up question on this one (Why were pre-election polls and forecast models so wrong about Donald Trump). The accepted answer tells us about the possible reasons such as Shy Tory Factor ...
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1answer
195 views

Do any jurisdictions take steps to protect people's votes from being "outed" by the polls?

It's well established that vote anonymity is an important part of representative democracy (discussed elsewhere on this site). I was listening to the 538 podcast today, and they were discussing phone ...
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1answer
321 views

Is there evidence that phone polling led to people's votes being "outed"?

It's well established that vote anonymity is an important part of representative democracy (discussed elsewhere on this site). I was listening to the 538 podcast today, and they were discussing phone ...
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2answers
585 views

Where can I do my own analysis of exit poll data?

All the media sites do their own rollups of the exit poll data, but the dimensions they pick are static. Is there any site where I can pivot on my own sets of dimensions? E.g. I see married men went ...
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1answer
330 views

Are Opinion Polls as accurate as they once were in America?

In Britain it is generally recognised that opinion polling is not what it once was. At the last two important elections (the General Election of May 2015, and the EU Referendum of June 2016) they have ...
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2answers
1k views

Have pollsters examined the possibility of a "shy Tory factor" in the 2016 presidential election?

Most of the polling for the 2016 US presidential election have been favourable to Hillary Clinton. One of the biggest questions I have right now is whether the polling is accurate. In particular, ...
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2answers
3k views

Phenomenon where politically incorrect candidates do better in actual elections than in polls?

I've long hypothesised that a certain phenomenon may exist, and I wonder if there's any actual research on the subject. I'm asking for research, statistics, etc. on a macro level. However, I think it'...
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1answer
248 views

FiveThirtyEight: Polls Only vs Now Cast

Here is how FiveThirtyEight reports their forecast probabilities. FiveThirtyEight Clinton Trump --------------- ------- ----- Polls Only 51.0 49.0 Now Cast 56.8 ...
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2answers
183 views

Who was polled in "The Latest Polls"?

Innumerable times lately, I have heard the phrase "the latest polls" thrown around. In many cases, it appears that major news outlets (CNN, FOX, etc.) are conducting their own polls. Is this correct?...
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78 views

How widely established are the laws against reporting on polling during election?

In comments on " Is the "no poll reporting till voting is done" specific to Brexit vote? " I was made aware that other countries also have rules against reporting on polling numbers on ...
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1answer
328 views

Is the "no poll reporting till voting is done" law specific to the Brexit vote?

I saw mentions that nobody could report on the preliminary outcome of the Brexit vote, because it was illegal to report on any numbers before voting concluded. Is this rule/law specific to the Brexit ...
3
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1answer
98 views

How to extract the chance of winning from questions in the poll?

Polling is very new to me and I have a naive question: Looking at HuffPost Pollster, I am trying to understand how numbers like "Clinton: 49%, Trump: 37%" are obtained. First of all, in ...