Questions tagged [polling]

A sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons

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5
votes
2answers
228 views

Are the partial results announced in Iowa consistent with prior polling in the state?

This may be a bit of a surprise, but according to some news sources (CNN, BBC), Buttigieg came in first and Biden fourth with Sanders and Warren 2nd and 3rd, after more than half the votes were ...
4
votes
0answers
276 views

Is there a party in Europe whose supporters show a high degree of sympathy towards Israel?

I find this plot over time of US sympathy for Israel rather fascinating, especially when broken down by US party. One has to wonder how much of that is explained by "conflict extension" in recent ...
45
votes
4answers
12k views

Why do so many Russians approve of Joseph Stalin's regime?

I read about how polls suggest that 70% of Russians today support the actions Joseph Stalin's actions when he was in charge of the Soviet Union. Why is his approval rating so high in Russia despite of ...
1
vote
0answers
176 views

Iranian retaliation and UA plane crash: What has been the predominant reaction of the Iranians? [closed]

What do the Iranian people mostly think about the recent Ukrainian plane crash in Tehran? Do they believe in the Iranian interpretation of a technical error or do they believe the Western states ...
2
votes
0answers
68 views

Are there any polls explicitly measuring “impeachment fatigue”?

There are at least a couple of articles (NYT, The Hill) that talk of "impeachment fatigue" among the US public already. In one PBS piece/interview it was it even claimed explicitly that this fatigue ...
20
votes
6answers
3k views

Why has Donald Trump's approval rating been rising since impeachment processes started?

It appears that recently, Trump's approval rating has been rising despite impeachment, and the accusations and evidence against him. How can this be explained? Has there been anything published ...
12
votes
1answer
362 views

Is there any hard data on what factors motivated voters to switch from Labour to Conservative in the 2019 election?

After the Conservative party's landslide victory in the December 2019 House of Commons election, there have been many theories put forward to explain Labour's loss, including: Labour's left wing ...
13
votes
1answer
786 views

Ballot anonymity at UK polling stations

When voting at the parliamentary election polling station I noticed the following practice mentioned in the Electoral Commission's Polling station handbook: UK Parliamentary election (PDF) Stage ...
2
votes
0answers
112 views

Has anything been published about how YouGov determined the figures they are using for predicted turnout by age?

YouGov's MRP model is seen as one of the most reliable pre-election predictors of what results will look like in the UK. Their turnout predictions by age are as follows: According to the ...
5
votes
1answer
119 views

What is an MRP poll, and is it more accurate than a conventional poll?

On Nov 27th, the polling company YouGov released an “MRP” poll that predicts the Conservative party winning a majority of 68 in the upcoming General Election. The poll has been treated as practically ...
5
votes
1answer
155 views

Is there any polling on the Democratic primaries that includes Bloomberg?

Michael Bloomberg has announced yesterday that he officially joins the Democratic primaries race. This seems a bit late in the game, so to speak, but maybe he knows something we don't. So, is there ...
3
votes
0answers
25 views

Is there an online source for pre-1942 UK general election polls from the British Institute of Public Opinion?

I know that there are records of UK general election polls from before 1942, since I have read them in back issues of Cavalcade in the British Library (because I'm fun). I'm looking for an online ...
2
votes
1answer
162 views

What percentage approval rating does Trump have among self-described liberals?

I have heard that Trump has an overall approval rating of 42% nationwide based on unbiased polls. I consider this number accurate because it uses many polls to get this number. However, I heard that ...
8
votes
2answers
3k views

Polling on Impeachment

Any polls out there indicating the public's pulse on the impeachment? Specifically interested in moderates or independents and swing states.
5
votes
1answer
237 views

Is the Tea Party still a significant political force in the US?

It seem unclear if this was its heyday, but Wikipedia mentions that: One 2013 survey found that, in political terms, 20% of self-identified Republicans stated that they considered themselves as ...
23
votes
4answers
9k views

Is current (November 2019) polling about Democrats lead over Trump trustworthy?

Right now, many polls (such as this ABC/Washington Post poll from November 5th) claim that the Democratic candidates have double digit leads over Trump. In the 2016 elections, however, polls suggested ...
5
votes
1answer
184 views

How important is healthcare reform/plan to Democratic voters?

All four leading Democratic candidates have spelled out, in more or less detail, their vision for a healthcare reform/plan. But how important is the issue to Democratic voters, i.e. are there any ...
4
votes
1answer
125 views

Are there any polls in France on further EU expansion in the Balkans?

On October 18, the BBC reported that At the EU summit, French President Emmanuel Macron led a small number of countries in rejecting the Western Balkan countries from moving forward with their ...
1
vote
1answer
192 views

Is there a longitudinal survey of US public attitudes toward the perceived “dual loyalty” of immigrants?

A 2003 survey on a US nationally representative sample found that 71.3% of respondents agreed that “It’s OK for immigrants to be loyal to both their home country and the U.S.” [statement that] was ...
5
votes
3answers
532 views

Is it possible to have a 22 point difference between polls taken over the same time period?

So I checking the state of the Democratic Nomination polls today and I saw this head scratcher: Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/21 21 28 15 10 5 ... Warren +7 CNN 10/17 - 10/20 34 19 16 6 ...
1
vote
1answer
121 views

In CBC's poll tracker, why do the probabilities of winning not add up to 100%?

In CBC's poll tracker at: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/, probabilities of winning the 2019 Canadian federal election are provided. Currently, these are 11% Liberal ...
34
votes
5answers
6k views

What is the purpose of polls published by the organization that they are asking about which have leading/confusing questions?

My understanding of polling is that it is done to gauge public perception and opinion of political actors and policies in order to further shape a candidates actions. In order to do that, one would ...
3
votes
1answer
161 views

Are there any pre-Brexit-referendum polls on UK electorate preference for a strongman leader?

An article in The Economist this summer says: The gridlock in Parliament, where mps have been caught between loyalty to their constituents, their party and the instruction of the referendum, has ...
6
votes
1answer
319 views

Are there any public opinion polls in the US on them starting military action against Iran?

Give the recent international events rising tensions between the US and Iran, have there any public opinion polls been conducted in the US asking whether the US should do more militarily against Iran? ...
5
votes
1answer
245 views

Warren vs Biden in the polls: how sudden was the change?

It's been pointed out to me (hat tip to dolphin_of_france) that some recent polling puts Warren ahead of Biden in the Democratic primary voting intention. How sudden was this change? How much [of ...
12
votes
2answers
1k views

Do we know what “hardness” of Brexit people actually wanted in the referendum, if there had been other choices available?

As worded, the referendum was between two choices - leave or stay. But realistically, if there had been a mechanism for it, there would have been other choices on the list, reflecting the nuances of ...
5
votes
1answer
271 views

Why does Biden show two trend-lines with his polls?

Looking at the poll numbers shown by realclearpolitics.com for 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Specifically Biden's poll numbers. There seems to be two trend-lines for him instead of one. One ...
12
votes
3answers
578 views

What is the public opinion in Hong Kong about the protests? How many of them support it?

The Hong Kong protests are widely supported by many people across the globe. This isn't surprising, since it's easy to sit at home in front of your computer and upvote posts on Facebook, but I reckon ...
0
votes
1answer
177 views

Which polls count towards DNC debate requirements (especially fall)?

There are polls released almost daily pertaining to the Democratic nomination. In order to attend the September 12–13 round of round of debates, candidates need to get donations from 130,000 unique ...
3
votes
2answers
2k views

Why are there no polls of Tom Steyer yet?

Tom Steyer, a billionaire, announced he was campaigning for president on July 9 and pledged to spend 100 million dollars of his own fortune to make that happen. Enough for a significant advertisement ...
1
vote
1answer
74 views

How to poll on a budget

I would like to conduct a study examining the correlation between the Democratic candidates people support (and the policies these people espouse) and the positions of the candidates themselves (based ...
5
votes
1answer
116 views

Which UK polls//surveys provide information at a constituency-by-constituency level, for the upcoming EU elections in May 2019?

Coming as no surprise whatsoever, the 2019 EU elections will be an interesting event in the UK. Notable features seem to be: The election may act as a proxy vote on brexit, and on various parties' ...
6
votes
1answer
227 views

Are there any polls on the new Swiss immigration referendum question?

Apparently after the "betrayal" of the first Swiss immigration-limiting referendum (of Feb 2014) by their parliament, which passed a substantially watered down law (in 2016), there's now going to be ...
2
votes
0answers
172 views

How does Indonesia's unofficial presidential election tally finish with “head-snapping” speed?

The NPR News item and podcast In Indonesia, Joko Widodo Secures Another 5-Year Term As President quotes Indonesian president Joko Widodo, and continues: "Let us reunite as family. Let us strengthen ...
4
votes
0answers
204 views

Are farmers in the Great Plains aware of the Dust Bowl? [closed]

I'm curious if farmers in the Great Plains are aware today of the history of the Dust Bowl, including its causes. Are there any surveys or polls on the matter among farmers, like there are (also among ...
81
votes
9answers
16k views

Why do UK politicians seemingly ignore opinion polls on Brexit?

Looking at the Brexit opinion polls it seems that the public is consistently in favor of staying in the EU ever since July 2017, with the gap between 'leave' and 'remain' slowly widening over time. So ...
6
votes
1answer
264 views

Is there a survey of the public opinion whether no-deal is preferable to the November deal?

A number of UK politicians prefer a no-deal Brexit to the November deal agreed between the government and the EU (but twice rejected by the UK Parliament). Yet the majority of the MPs also to rejected ...
2
votes
0answers
714 views

What is Maduro's approval among Venezuelan expatriates?

The president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, has an approval rating of around 20% (e.g. this survey). These studies do have flaws, since some may not properly account for his support in the lowest-...
2
votes
1answer
329 views

Do polls indicate support for post-Brexit freer trade?

The Bank of England Brexit GDP scenarios show a blue area depicting a "close relationship" scenario and a "less close" relationship scenario. It is clear that when they use the label "less close" they ...
3
votes
1answer
154 views

How to convey poll results with shifting demographics?

Poll results that try to show a change (or lack thereof) in an opinion over time are usually reported similarly to this answer: As of mid-December 2018, 59% of Republicans thought it was 'very ...
9
votes
1answer
353 views

Evidence in support of highly myopic retrospective voting

I am reading Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. In Chapter 6 and 7, evidence is shown that "voters' retrospective assessments of the economy are quite myopic." ...
2
votes
1answer
88 views

How do the RealClearPolitics polling averages work?

It's common for poll analysts to discuss the RCP average, and well-known that the RCP average is a simple arithmetic mean of the polls under consideration. But what are the other rules? In particular ...
2
votes
0answers
93 views

Who coined the term “herding” in the context of polling?

Nate Silver defines herding as the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign On November 5 2012 Drew Linzer wrote a post ...
4
votes
1answer
217 views

Are there some surveys for the motivation of Syrian asylum seekers preference for Germany (once they reach Europe)?

For a bit of background: In 2015 and 2016, Europe became a destination of choice for an estimated 650,000 Syrians. However, this represents only about 5% of all Syrians displaced by the conflict ...
3
votes
1answer
276 views

How did Labour party members in England vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum?

Polling data is readily available on how members of the Labour across Britain voted in the Brexit referendum: 65% for remain. However, this exit poll includes Labour voters across Great Britain*, and ...
30
votes
4answers
5k views

Are opinion polls always representative of the extreme opinions?

Opinion polls involves a choice. The people who are being asked to take the poll can say yes or no. I suspect that this leads to such a significant amount of self-selection bias that I am starting ...
3
votes
1answer
159 views

Are public opinion and expert views of ideological distances between political parties generally consistent?

This question is inspired by two papers I encountered, which came to the same conclusion using different sources to quantify the ideological distance between political parties in various countries: ...
4
votes
0answers
171 views

What are the main differences between UK and US (NEP) exit polls, methodologically?

The UK since 2001-2005 has apparently managed to get extremely accurate exit-polls: Prior to 2001 the methods used had been different, and the accuracy of predictions based on exit polls was rather ...
3
votes
1answer
475 views

Is exit-polling more accurate than pre-election polling?

It has been claimed so in a comment which cites a FT article that I can't read (right now). Presumably the topic is interesting enough to have been discussed elsewhere. I'm mainly interested in the ...
8
votes
3answers
462 views

Were the British always among the most skeptical about free movement of people in the EU?

... or did they become this way only after the EU enlargement in Central and Easter Europe (after the fall of the Iron Curtain)? If there's a need to back up the premise of the question... here's a ...