Questions tagged [polling]
A sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons
140
questions
1
vote
0answers
41 views
Poll trend graph for electoral college not popular vote
I'm looking for the right words to use to find a trend graph that shows how the US electoral vote count would look over time. "If the election were held today" kind of thing. This isn't ...
0
votes
1answer
186 views
Why hasn't the USA done a statistical sampling of COVID cases?
In all the media reports I have seen over the past few months with respect to the COVID pandemic, I have never heard about any statistically random testing done at any level (state, federal).
From my ...
2
votes
1answer
110 views
Partisan identification in the US, polls only weakly correlated to voter registration
This article by Nate Cohn says:
Among those characterized as Democrats based on party registration or primary vote history, 69 percent identified as Democrats in the poll; similarly, 65 percent of ...
3
votes
2answers
152 views
What differences are between polled groups “V”, “A”, “RV” and “LV”?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ has polls with different populations:
A = ADULTS
RV = REGISTERED VOTERS
V = VOTERS
LV = LIKELY VOTERS
Is it correct that "LV" is a proper ...
1
vote
1answer
110 views
Historical data on how the reliability of polling data depends on time remaining until a US presidential election
Just for entertainment, I wrote a program that simulates the US presidential election of 2020. (I was interested in seeing whether, for example, predictit's relatively low probability of Biden's ...
6
votes
1answer
123 views
How does polling work in the United States?
As we approach the presidential election, polling statistics seem to be referenced more than ever.
I've never had the opportunity to be included in polls.
This leads me to wonder;
Who is polled?
How ...
0
votes
0answers
85 views
What percentage of Frenchmen still think [hydroxy]chloroquine is an effective remedy against Covid-19?
News from almost two months ago:
A survey released by French polling institute IFOP on 6 April revealed that 59% of the French population believes chloroquine is effective against the new ...
2
votes
0answers
45 views
Does a database of historic US Presidential election polling data exist?
I want to do some research concerning the historic accuracy of presidential election polling. Is there anywhere I can find a database containing historic polling data from multiple pollsters? ...
7
votes
1answer
231 views
How has the apportionment of blame for COVID-19 by party changed over time in the US?
In a (recent) Morning Consult poll we find this question on whom Americans blame the most for the spread of Covid-19 in the US:
As you can see, at least now, Democrats chiefly blame president Trump, ...
46
votes
9answers
7k views
Why is there such a partisan divide on confidence in science in the US?
A study conducted by the Pew Research Center and published in February presents eight key findings on Americans’ confidence in science and their views on scientists’ role in society, drawn from a ...
1
vote
0answers
180 views
What other EU countries' population (besides Italy) see China and/or Russia as their best friend(s) and Germany as their worst enemy?
An Euractiv article, points to SWG a poll among Italians that finds China and Russia being considered friendly countries now in Italy while Germany and France are seen as enemies:
(One can't help but ...
4
votes
1answer
143 views
Have any polls been conducted measuring support for the WHO?
In the past few weeks, we have seen some countries criticize the World Health Organization, particularly from Japan, and more recently the US President's withdrawal of WHO funding subject to a review.
...
0
votes
1answer
73 views
Is there a correlation between a President's approval rating on Election day and their share of the Popular Vote during re-election?
I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide. This ...
13
votes
5answers
2k views
Are there any polls explicitly measuring “quarantine fatigue” in Western countries?
There are numerous articles talking about how people are tired of staying in lockdown:
As Greece enters its third week since restrictive measures were first
imposed to combat the spread of ...
2
votes
0answers
89 views
How has public opinion of the European Union changed as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
The response of the EU to the COVID-19 pandemic has not exactly been unified. Despite finally reaching agreement on a €500bn rescue package on Thursday, this came after weeks of argument, particularly ...
4
votes
2answers
223 views
Why do Catholics support European integration more than Protestants?
In their paper Does Religion Matter?: Christianity and Public Support for the European Union, Nelsen et. al explore the effect of religious denomination, and the strength of that religious conviction ...
1
vote
1answer
144 views
How are the job approval ratings of Governor Andrew Cuomo and mayor Bill de Blasio faring during the COVID-19 crisis?
There has been a question here about the job approval rating of Trump in this Covid-19 pandemic. (Slight increase.)
I wonder how the governor and mayor of US most affected US state & city, that ...
32
votes
10answers
4k views
Is there an explanation for why ~20% of Americans think the US's response to COVID-19 has been better than South Korea's?
In this article, it's claimed that 20% of the US thinks the US is handling the COVID-19 outbreak better than South Korea, 21% think it's about the same, 26% think it's worse, and 32% aren't sure. This ...
24
votes
5answers
7k views
How has the handling of the coronavirus outbreak (CoViD-19) affected Donald Trump's approval ratings?
From the outside it appears that the coronavirus (CoViD-19) outbreak has caught the USA off guard and that it's been handled quite poorly to date. So my assumption is that this would have a negative ...
9
votes
1answer
418 views
Are there any surveys in the US on whether “preserving the American way” is worth the risk of sacrificing their elderly to COVID-19?
CNBC reported that:
[Dan] Patrick, the Texas lieutenant governor, said Monday on Fox News, “As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America ...
25
votes
5answers
11k views
Why are states easily won by Bernie Sanders in 2016 not supporting him in 2020?
In Oklahoma, for example, the results of the 2016 primary gave Sanders a 10% lead over Clinton, while in Minnesota, the gap was even larger at 23%. In his home state of Vermont, Sanders won by over 70%...
-1
votes
1answer
171 views
How much margin does a U.S. Democratic President need? [duplicate]
In the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election, Gore won the popular vote by 0.5% and lost the Electoral College vote.
In the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election, Obama won the popular vote by 7% and won the ...
58
votes
5answers
21k views
Are there polls why Germans dislike Trump so much and consider him so dangerous?
From Pew surveys, Trump seems quite unpopular in (continental) Europe; in 2019 he seems to poll lowest in Germany even among that group:
Also, a more recent (dpa) poll focused on Germans' opinions:
...
5
votes
2answers
271 views
Are the partial results announced in Iowa consistent with prior polling in the state?
This may be a bit of a surprise, but according to some news sources (CNN, BBC), Buttigieg came in first and Biden fourth with Sanders and Warren 2nd and 3rd, after more than half the votes were ...
4
votes
0answers
295 views
Is there a party in Europe whose supporters show a high degree of sympathy towards Israel?
I find this plot over time of US sympathy for Israel rather fascinating, especially when broken down by US party.
One has to wonder how much of that is explained by "conflict extension" in recent ...
46
votes
4answers
13k views
Why do so many Russians approve of Joseph Stalin's regime?
I read about how polls suggest that 70% of Russians today support the actions Joseph Stalin's actions when he was in charge of the Soviet Union. Why is his approval rating so high in Russia despite of ...
1
vote
0answers
179 views
Iranian retaliation and UA plane crash: What has been the predominant reaction of the Iranians? [closed]
What do the Iranian people mostly think about the recent Ukrainian plane crash in Tehran? Do they believe in the Iranian interpretation of a technical error or do they believe the Western states ...
3
votes
0answers
71 views
Are there any polls explicitly measuring “impeachment fatigue”?
There are at least a couple of articles (NYT, The Hill) that talk of "impeachment fatigue" among the US public already. In one PBS piece/interview it was it even claimed explicitly that this fatigue ...
20
votes
6answers
3k views
Why has Donald Trump's approval rating been rising since impeachment processes started?
It appears that recently, Trump's approval rating has been rising despite impeachment, and the accusations and evidence against him.
How can this be explained? Has there been anything published ...
11
votes
1answer
383 views
Is there any hard data on what factors motivated voters to switch from Labour to Conservative in the 2019 election?
After the Conservative party's landslide victory in the December 2019 House of Commons election, there have been many theories put forward to explain Labour's loss, including:
Labour's left wing ...
13
votes
1answer
805 views
Ballot anonymity at UK polling stations
When voting at the parliamentary election polling station I noticed the following practice mentioned in the Electoral Commission's Polling station handbook: UK Parliamentary election (PDF)
Stage ...
2
votes
0answers
119 views
Has anything been published about how YouGov determined the figures they are using for predicted turnout by age?
YouGov's MRP model is seen as one of the most reliable pre-election predictors of what results will look like in the UK. Their turnout predictions by age are as follows:
According to the ...
5
votes
1answer
122 views
What is an MRP poll, and is it more accurate than a conventional poll?
On Nov 27th, the polling company YouGov released an “MRP” poll that predicts the Conservative party winning a majority of 68 in the upcoming General Election. The poll has been treated as practically ...
5
votes
1answer
207 views
Is there any polling on the Democratic primaries that includes Bloomberg?
Michael Bloomberg has announced yesterday that he officially joins the Democratic primaries race. This seems a bit late in the game, so to speak, but maybe he knows something we don't. So, is there ...
3
votes
0answers
31 views
Is there an online source for pre-1942 UK general election polls from the British Institute of Public Opinion?
I know that there are records of UK general election polls from before 1942, since I have read them in back issues of Cavalcade in the British Library (because I'm fun). I'm looking for an online ...
1
vote
2answers
256 views
What percentage approval rating does Trump have among self-described liberals?
I have heard that Trump has an overall approval rating of 42% nationwide based on unbiased polls. I consider this number accurate because it uses many polls to get this number. However, I heard that ...
8
votes
2answers
3k views
Polling on Impeachment
Any polls out there indicating the public's pulse on the impeachment? Specifically interested in moderates or independents and swing states.
5
votes
1answer
240 views
Is the Tea Party still a significant political force in the US?
It seem unclear if this was its heyday, but Wikipedia mentions that:
One 2013 survey found that, in political terms, 20% of self-identified Republicans stated that they considered themselves as ...
23
votes
4answers
10k views
Is current (November 2019) polling about Democrats lead over Trump trustworthy?
Right now, many polls (such as this ABC/Washington Post poll from November 5th) claim that the Democratic candidates have double digit leads over Trump. In the 2016 elections, however, polls suggested ...
5
votes
1answer
187 views
How important is healthcare reform/plan to Democratic voters?
All four leading Democratic candidates have spelled out, in more or less detail, their vision for a healthcare reform/plan. But how important is the issue to Democratic voters, i.e. are there any ...
4
votes
1answer
147 views
Are there any polls in France on further EU expansion in the Balkans?
On October 18, the BBC reported that
At the EU summit, French President Emmanuel Macron led a small number of countries in rejecting the Western Balkan countries from moving forward with their ...
1
vote
1answer
196 views
Is there a longitudinal survey of US public attitudes toward the perceived “dual loyalty” of immigrants?
A 2003 survey on a US nationally representative sample found that 71.3% of respondents agreed that
“It’s OK for immigrants to be loyal to both their home country and the U.S.” [statement that] was ...
5
votes
3answers
554 views
Is it possible to have a 22 point difference between polls taken over the same time period?
So I checking the state of the Democratic Nomination polls today and I saw this head scratcher:
Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/21 21 28 15 10 5 ... Warren +7
CNN 10/17 - 10/20 34 19 16 6 ...
1
vote
1answer
127 views
In CBC's poll tracker, why do the probabilities of winning not add up to 100%?
In CBC's poll tracker at: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/, probabilities of winning the 2019 Canadian federal election are provided.
Currently, these are 11% Liberal ...
34
votes
5answers
6k views
What is the purpose of polls published by the organization that they are asking about which have leading/confusing questions?
My understanding of polling is that it is done to gauge public perception and opinion of political actors and policies in order to further shape a candidates actions. In order to do that, one would ...
3
votes
1answer
200 views
Are there any pre-Brexit-referendum polls on UK electorate preference for a strongman leader?
An article in The Economist this summer says:
The gridlock in Parliament, where mps have been caught between loyalty to their constituents, their party and the instruction of the referendum, has ...
6
votes
1answer
353 views
Are there any public opinion polls in the US on them starting military action against Iran?
Give the recent international events rising tensions between the US and Iran, have there any public opinion polls been conducted in the US asking whether the US should do more militarily against Iran?
...
5
votes
1answer
254 views
Warren vs Biden in the polls: how sudden was the change?
It's been pointed out to me (hat tip to dolphin_of_france) that some recent polling puts Warren ahead of Biden in the Democratic primary voting intention.
How sudden was this change? How much [of this]...
12
votes
2answers
1k views
Do we know what “hardness” of Brexit people actually wanted in the referendum, if there had been other choices available?
As worded, the referendum was between two choices - leave or stay. But realistically, if there had been a mechanism for it, there would have been other choices on the list, reflecting the nuances of ...
5
votes
1answer
278 views
Why does Biden show two trend-lines with his polls?
Looking at the poll numbers shown by realclearpolitics.com for 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Specifically Biden's poll numbers. There seems to be two trend-lines for him instead of one. One ...
