Questions tagged [polling]

A sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons

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6
votes
1answer
189 views

What was the relative importance of EU regulations as a reason for Brexit?

In the National Review article, Only the Supreme Court Can Effectively Restrain the Administrative State, December 1, 2020, there is a sentence, emboldened below, If the administrative state ...
3
votes
1answer
150 views

What, if anything, has been done to account for mail-in votes in 2020 exit poll data?

Traditionally, exit polls are done by physically presenting a subset voters with an anonymous survey as they exit the polling place. In normal years, this provides a fairly good picture of the ...
2
votes
0answers
88 views

What projections are there, if any, of the final margin of the election?

At this point, Biden is the president-elect, with every major network including Fox having called the election in his favor, and with a probable end result of 306 electoral votes to 232 for Trump. ...
9
votes
2answers
196 views

Does my vote even matter? [duplicate]

If I'm voting republican in a state such as California, does it even matter? I decided not to vote since CA is overwhelmingly blue and I thought my vote would be pointless
-3
votes
1answer
163 views

“Polling fails” observed in US elections quantified as right- or left-leaning? [closed]

Define a polling fail s.t. a particular candidate C, running in ... a particular election E, s.t. ... pre-E polls (collectively, averaged) predict C to achieve vote share S0, but ... results from E ...
5
votes
2answers
141 views

Does trust of strangers influence how likely someone is to answer a poll from a stranger?

I've always wondered about type of people who take surveys. Who among us would take a random call in the middle of the day from a perfect stranger and spending the next 30 minutes answering dozens of ...
73
votes
2answers
13k views

Why is the Economist model so sure Trump is going to lose compared to other models?

The Economist model never showed Trump as a clear favorite. In recent weeks, it said he has had less than 10% chance of winning the electoral college. It currently says his chances are particularly ...
6
votes
1answer
3k views

What does asterisk mean in RealClearPolitics polls?

I have noted that some polls on the RealClearPolitics site are marked with an asterisk: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html What does it mean?
2
votes
4answers
613 views

Was Trump such an underdog 4 years ago according to polls?

I keep reading that almost every single poll known to man shows that Biden is leading Trump. The only exceptions are polls from a few Republican states (like Kansas) where Trump easily won in 2016 but ...
12
votes
3answers
5k views

What was the point of Trump trying to get dirt on Hunter Biden's dealings with Ukraine?

When Trump was impeached, the big issue was that he wanted to get dirt on his political opponent. He wanted dirt on Joe Biden's son and how he worked with an oil company and wanted to accuse Biden of ...
4
votes
3answers
228 views

Is it advantageous to lie in political polling answers?

When a person is asked questions by a poll, are there any rational reasons why they might lie with their answers in order to achieve their goals for the election? For example if they say they are ...
4
votes
2answers
510 views

Why has Trump's approval slowly risen starting in August?

According to 538, Trump's approval has risen a little less than 3 percentage points since August 1st and is currently at 43.8%. It has not affected head to head polling. Why has this happened?
-4
votes
2answers
172 views

How shall I understand the US election poll results conducted on Twitter, which are contradictory to the others not conducted on Twitter?

On a popular US poll twitter account, I found an interesting phenomenon. (Similar thing also has been happening on other US poll twitter accounts.) Most of the polls it has (re)tweeted are favoring ...
3
votes
0answers
61 views

How has the support for integration within the EU changed during the COVID-19 pandemic?

I'm interested in any surveys studying the popular support for EU and EU integration done in the EU memberstates within the period of the coronavirus. How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the EU's ...
-1
votes
1answer
145 views

Is Donald Trump experiencing a rally 'round the flag event? [closed]

According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump's approval is up from 40% to 43%, or 3 percentage points. (His disapproval of course, is down by a similar margin.) I believe that the president could be ...
24
votes
2answers
4k views

In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States that are: “the closest races” and “close to the tipping point”?

In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
2
votes
0answers
109 views

What is the name for a graph showing the estimated electoral vote share based on polling over time?

I'm looking for the right words to use to find a trend graph that shows how the US electoral vote count would look over time. "If the election were held today" kind of thing. This isn't ...
0
votes
1answer
240 views

Why hasn't the USA done a statistical sampling of COVID cases?

In all the media reports I have seen over the past few months with respect to the COVID pandemic, I have never heard about any statistically random testing done at any level (state, federal). From my ...
2
votes
1answer
126 views

Partisan identification in the US, polls only weakly correlated to voter registration

This article by Nate Cohn says: Among those characterized as Democrats based on party registration or primary vote history, 69 percent identified as Democrats in the poll; similarly, 65 percent of ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

What differences are between polled groups “V”, “A”, “RV” and “LV”?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ has polls with different populations: A = ADULTS RV = REGISTERED VOTERS V = VOTERS LV = LIKELY VOTERS Is it correct that "LV" is a proper ...
1
vote
1answer
121 views

Historical data on how the reliability of polling data depends on time remaining until a US presidential election

Just for entertainment, I wrote a program that simulates the US presidential election of 2020. (I was interested in seeing whether, for example, predictit's relatively low probability of Biden's ...
6
votes
1answer
131 views

How does polling work in the United States?

As we approach the presidential election, polling statistics seem to be referenced more than ever. I've never had the opportunity to be included in polls. This leads me to wonder; Who is polled? How ...
1
vote
0answers
103 views

What percentage of Frenchmen still think [hydroxy]chloroquine is an effective remedy against Covid-19?

News from almost two months ago: A survey released by French polling institute IFOP on 6 April revealed that 59% of the French population believes chloroquine is effective against the new ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views

Does a database of historic US Presidential election polling data exist?

I want to do some research concerning the historic accuracy of presidential election polling. Is there anywhere I can find a database containing historic polling data from multiple pollsters? ...
9
votes
1answer
292 views

How has the apportionment of blame for COVID-19 by party changed over time in the US?

In a (recent) Morning Consult poll we find this question on whom Americans blame the most for the spread of Covid-19 in the US: As you can see, at least now, Democrats chiefly blame president Trump, ...
5
votes
3answers
2k views

How did Republicans get a majority of governorships and lose the popular vote by almost 3 million votes in 2018?

In 2016, Republicans won the White House and lost the popular vote by 2.1 points, or almost 3 million votes. In 2018, a similar story happened: Democratic candidates won the national gubernatorial ...
30
votes
6answers
9k views

Why did Trump's “rally 'round the flag” effect evaporate so quickly?

When the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, alarm bells went off in the public and Trump's approval started rising. On 538's polling average, his approval rating rose from 42.5% to 45.8%. But, as of ...
47
votes
9answers
7k views

Why is there such a partisan divide on confidence in science in the US?

A study conducted by the Pew Research Center and published in February presents eight key findings on Americans’ confidence in science and their views on scientists’ role in society, drawn from a ...
1
vote
0answers
193 views

What other EU countries' population (besides Italy) see China and/or Russia as their best friend(s) and Germany as their worst enemy?

An Euractiv article, points to SWG a poll among Italians that finds China and Russia being considered friendly countries now in Italy while Germany and France are seen as enemies: (One can't help but ...
4
votes
1answer
152 views

Have any polls been conducted measuring support for the WHO?

In the past few weeks, we have seen some countries criticize the World Health Organization, particularly from Japan, and more recently the US President's withdrawal of WHO funding subject to a review. ...
2
votes
1answer
189 views

Is there a correlation between a President's approval rating on Election day and their share of the Popular Vote during re-election?

I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide. This ...
13
votes
5answers
2k views

Are there any polls explicitly measuring “quarantine fatigue” in Western countries?

There are numerous articles talking about how people are tired of staying in lockdown: As Greece enters its third week since restrictive measures were first imposed to combat the spread of ...
4
votes
1answer
178 views

How has public opinion of the European Union changed as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?

The response of the EU to the COVID-19 pandemic has not exactly been unified. Despite finally reaching agreement on a €500bn rescue package on Thursday, this came after weeks of argument, particularly ...
4
votes
2answers
235 views

Why do Catholics support European integration more than Protestants?

In their paper Does Religion Matter?: Christianity and Public Support for the European Union, Nelsen et. al explore the effect of religious denomination, and the strength of that religious conviction ...
1
vote
1answer
148 views

How are the job approval ratings of Governor Andrew Cuomo and mayor Bill de Blasio faring during the COVID-19 crisis?

There has been a question here about the job approval rating of Trump in this Covid-19 pandemic. (Slight increase.) I wonder how the governor and mayor of US most affected US state & city, that ...
31
votes
10answers
4k views

Is there an explanation for why ~20% of Americans think the US's response to COVID-19 has been better than South Korea's?

In this article, it's claimed that 20% of the US thinks the US is handling the COVID-19 outbreak better than South Korea, 21% think it's about the same, 26% think it's worse, and 32% aren't sure. This ...
24
votes
5answers
7k views

How has the handling of the coronavirus outbreak (CoViD-19) affected Donald Trump's approval ratings?

From the outside it appears that the coronavirus (CoViD-19) outbreak has caught the USA off guard and that it's been handled quite poorly to date. So my assumption is that this would have a negative ...
9
votes
1answer
424 views

Are there any surveys in the US on whether “preserving the American way” is worth the risk of sacrificing their elderly to COVID-19?

CNBC reported that: [Dan] Patrick, the Texas lieutenant governor, said Monday on Fox News, “As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America ...
13
votes
1answer
191 views

Has the effect of crises on leaders' approval ratings been researched?

In the last few weeks, the leaders of practically every country I've looked at have seen their approval ratings improve significantly. An obvious conclusion to draw is that this is due to the COVID-19 ...
25
votes
5answers
11k views

Why are states easily won by Bernie Sanders in 2016 not supporting him in 2020?

In Oklahoma, for example, the results of the 2016 primary gave Sanders a 10% lead over Clinton, while in Minnesota, the gap was even larger at 23%. In his home state of Vermont, Sanders won by over 70%...
-1
votes
1answer
177 views

How much margin does a U.S. Democratic President need? [duplicate]

In the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election, Gore won the popular vote by 0.5% and lost the Electoral College vote. In the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election, Obama won the popular vote by 7% and won the ...
58
votes
5answers
21k views

Are there polls why Germans dislike Trump so much and consider him so dangerous?

From Pew surveys, Trump seems quite unpopular in (continental) Europe; in 2019 he seems to poll lowest in Germany even among that group: Also, a more recent (dpa) poll focused on Germans' opinions: ...
5
votes
2answers
281 views

Are the partial results announced in Iowa consistent with prior polling in the state?

This may be a bit of a surprise, but according to some news sources (CNN, BBC), Buttigieg came in first and Biden fourth with Sanders and Warren 2nd and 3rd, after more than half the votes were ...
4
votes
0answers
307 views

Is there a party in Europe whose supporters show a high degree of sympathy towards Israel?

I find this plot over time of US sympathy for Israel rather fascinating, especially when broken down by US party. One has to wonder how much of that is explained by "conflict extension" in recent ...
51
votes
5answers
13k views

Why do so many Russians approve of Joseph Stalin's regime?

I read polls suggesting that 70% of Russians today support Joseph Stalin's actions when he was in charge of the Soviet Union as its Premier. Why is his approval rating so high in Russia despite of all ...
1
vote
0answers
180 views

Iranian retaliation and UA plane crash: What has been the predominant reaction of the Iranians? [closed]

What do the Iranian people mostly think about the recent Ukrainian plane crash in Tehran? Do they believe in the Iranian interpretation of a technical error or do they believe the Western states ...
3
votes
0answers
74 views

Are there any polls explicitly measuring “impeachment fatigue”?

There are at least a couple of articles (NYT, The Hill) that talk of "impeachment fatigue" among the US public already. In one PBS piece/interview it was it even claimed explicitly that this fatigue ...
20
votes
6answers
3k views

Why has Donald Trump's approval rating been rising since impeachment processes started?

It appears that recently, Trump's approval rating has been rising despite impeachment, and the accusations and evidence against him. How can this be explained? Has there been anything published ...
11
votes
1answer
386 views

Is there any hard data on what factors motivated voters to switch from Labour to Conservative in the 2019 election?

After the Conservative party's landslide victory in the December 2019 House of Commons election, there have been many theories put forward to explain Labour's loss, including: Labour's left wing ...
13
votes
1answer
841 views

Ballot anonymity at UK polling stations

When voting at the parliamentary election polling station I noticed the following practice mentioned in the Electoral Commission's Polling station handbook: UK Parliamentary election (PDF) Stage ...