Questions tagged [polling]
A sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of persons
181
questions
7
votes
1answer
396 views
Have Republican voters indicated that the party's behaviour after the 2020 election will change their voting intentions?
I've seen quite of lot of reporting about the number of republicans who agree with Trump that the election was rigged or stolen.
Politico Reuters Vox (Jan)
In this question the most popular answer ...
12
votes
0answers
340 views
How did the view of Continental Europe on Brexit change between the 2016 Referendum and today?
There are plenty of polls asking the British population what they think about Brexit, but there are hardly any polls regarding Continental Europe's view on it; especially no recent ones.
Judging from ...
-1
votes
6answers
575 views
Why do Democrats and Republicans ignore public opinion polls on major issues? [closed]
When polled, the majority of Americans consistently believe in (1) a national health care plan; (2) increased taxes, not fewer taxes, on the wealthy; (3) and more, not less, environmental regulation, ...
5
votes
1answer
220 views
Why has Narendra Modi's approval rating remained high despite massive protests by Indian farmers?
I read a news article today about large protests in multiple cities by Indian farmers.
The protesters are responding to a recent law that they view as providing handouts to large agricultural ...
2
votes
2answers
286 views
According to political scientists, what, if anything, are the benefits of election polling to a liberal democracy?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_democracy
About 3 months and a million news-years ago, the pollsters and election analysts were taking a kicking for not predicting the US elections accurately ...
8
votes
1answer
610 views
During Trump's presidency, did White Americans (on average, still) believe there was more anti-White than anti-Black bias in the US?
An interesting, perhaps, survey on perceptions of racial inequality in the US, conducted some 10 years ago, as (somewhat better) summarized in another paper (of the same authors):
Norton and Sommers (...
3
votes
0answers
99 views
Are there any polls on the acceptance of the “Irish Sea border” in the UK?
I'm venturing a guess that a symbol that may constitute a rallying cry for hardcore Brexiteers is going to be the "Irish Sea border" which is already making its (still subdued) appearance as ...
-5
votes
2answers
337 views
Time to reconsider the secret ballot methodology?
Question: Has there ever been any surveys asking people if they think the secret ballot methodology currently used today is still a good idea in modern times?
I'd love to ask why we have not explored ...
asked Dec 10 '20 at 22:28
The 'Bernie Sanders' Party
2,4321 gold badge11 silver badges35 bronze badges
8
votes
4answers
5k views
Did Biden underperform the polls because some voters changed their minds after being polled?
Polls leading up to the election showed Biden with a commanding lead, averaged between 7 and 9 points depending on your source. But the result was Biden by 4.5.
I have a theory that some Republicans ...
7
votes
3answers
401 views
What was the relative importance of EU regulations as a reason for Brexit?
In the National Review article, Only the Supreme Court Can Effectively Restrain the Administrative State, December 1, 2020, there is a sentence, emboldened below,
If the administrative state ...
3
votes
1answer
153 views
What, if anything, has been done to account for mail-in votes in 2020 exit poll data?
Traditionally, exit polls are done by physically presenting a subset voters with an anonymous survey as they exit the polling place. In normal years, this provides a fairly good picture of the ...
2
votes
0answers
89 views
What projections are there, if any, of the final margin of the election?
At this point, Biden is the president-elect, with every major network including Fox having called the election in his favor, and with a probable end result of 306 electoral votes to 232 for Trump. ...
9
votes
2answers
201 views
Does my vote even matter? [duplicate]
If I'm voting republican in a state such as California, does it even matter?
I decided not to vote since CA is overwhelmingly blue and I thought my vote would be pointless
-3
votes
1answer
164 views
“Polling fails” observed in US elections quantified as right- or left-leaning? [closed]
Define a polling fail s.t.
a particular candidate C, running in ...
a particular election E, s.t. ...
pre-E polls (collectively, averaged) predict C to achieve vote share S0, but ...
results from E ...
5
votes
2answers
147 views
Does trust of strangers influence how likely someone is to answer a poll from a stranger?
I've always wondered about type of people who take surveys. Who among us would take a random call in the middle of the day from a perfect stranger and spending the next 30 minutes answering dozens of ...
71
votes
2answers
13k views
Why is the Economist model so sure Trump is going to lose compared to other models?
The Economist model never showed Trump as a clear favorite. In recent weeks, it said he has had less than 10% chance of winning the electoral college. It currently says his chances are particularly ...
6
votes
1answer
3k views
What does asterisk mean in RealClearPolitics polls?
I have noted that some polls on the RealClearPolitics site are marked with an asterisk:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html
What does it mean?
2
votes
4answers
617 views
Was Trump such an underdog 4 years ago according to polls?
I keep reading that almost every single poll known to man shows that Biden is leading Trump. The only exceptions are polls from a few Republican states (like Kansas) where Trump easily won in 2016 but ...
12
votes
3answers
5k views
What was the point of Trump trying to get dirt on Hunter Biden's dealings with Ukraine?
When Trump was impeached, the big issue was that he wanted to get dirt on his political opponent. He wanted dirt on Joe Biden's son and how he worked with an oil company and wanted to accuse Biden of ...
4
votes
3answers
233 views
Is it advantageous to lie in political polling answers?
When a person is asked questions by a poll, are there any rational reasons why they might lie with their answers in order to achieve their goals for the election?
For example if they say they are ...
4
votes
2answers
512 views
Why has Trump's approval slowly risen starting in August?
According to 538, Trump's approval has risen a little less than 3 percentage points since August 1st and is currently at 43.8%. It has not affected head to head polling. Why has this happened?
-4
votes
2answers
181 views
How shall I understand the US election poll results conducted on Twitter, which are contradictory to the others not conducted on Twitter?
On a popular US poll twitter account, I found an interesting phenomenon. (Similar thing also has been happening on other US poll twitter accounts.)
Most of the polls it has (re)tweeted are favoring ...
3
votes
0answers
63 views
How has the support for integration within the EU changed during the COVID-19 pandemic?
I'm interested in any surveys studying the popular support for EU and EU integration done in the EU memberstates within the period of the coronavirus. How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the EU's ...
-2
votes
1answer
146 views
Is Donald Trump experiencing a rally 'round the flag event? [closed]
According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump's approval is up from 40% to 43%, or 3 percentage points. (His disapproval of course, is down by a similar margin.)
I believe that the president could be ...
24
votes
2answers
4k views
In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States that are: “the closest races” and “close to the tipping point”?
In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
2
votes
0answers
112 views
What is the name for a graph showing the estimated electoral vote share based on polling over time?
I'm looking for the right words to use to find a trend graph that shows how the US electoral vote count would look over time. "If the election were held today" kind of thing. This isn't ...
0
votes
1answer
247 views
Why hasn't the USA done a statistical sampling of COVID cases?
In all the media reports I have seen over the past few months with respect to the COVID pandemic, I have never heard about any statistically random testing done at any level (state, federal).
From my ...
2
votes
1answer
127 views
Partisan identification in the US, polls only weakly correlated to voter registration
This article by Nate Cohn says:
Among those characterized as Democrats based on party registration or primary vote history, 69 percent identified as Democrats in the poll; similarly, 65 percent of ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views
What differences are between polled groups “V”, “A”, “RV” and “LV”?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ has polls with different populations:
A = ADULTS
RV = REGISTERED VOTERS
V = VOTERS
LV = LIKELY VOTERS
Is it correct that "LV" is a proper ...
1
vote
1answer
122 views
Historical data on how the reliability of polling data depends on time remaining until a US presidential election
Just for entertainment, I wrote a program that simulates the US presidential election of 2020. (I was interested in seeing whether, for example, predictit's relatively low probability of Biden's ...
6
votes
1answer
135 views
How does polling work in the United States?
As we approach the presidential election, polling statistics seem to be referenced more than ever.
I've never had the opportunity to be included in polls.
This leads me to wonder;
Who is polled?
How ...
1
vote
0answers
109 views
What percentage of Frenchmen still think [hydroxy]chloroquine is an effective remedy against Covid-19?
News from almost two months ago:
A survey released by French polling institute IFOP on 6 April revealed that 59% of the French population believes chloroquine is effective against the new ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views
Does a database of historic US Presidential election polling data exist?
I want to do some research concerning the historic accuracy of presidential election polling. Is there anywhere I can find a database containing historic polling data from multiple pollsters? ...
10
votes
1answer
308 views
How has the apportionment of blame for COVID-19 by party changed over time in the US?
In a (recent) Morning Consult poll we find this question on whom Americans blame the most for the spread of Covid-19 in the US:
As you can see, at least now, Democrats chiefly blame president Trump, ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views
How did Republicans get a majority of governorships and lose the popular vote by almost 3 million votes in 2018?
In 2016, Republicans won the White House and lost the popular vote by 2.1 points, or almost 3 million votes. In 2018, a similar story happened: Democratic candidates won the national gubernatorial ...
30
votes
6answers
9k views
Why did Trump's “rally 'round the flag” effect evaporate so quickly?
When the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, alarm bells went off in the public and Trump's approval started rising. On 538's polling average, his approval rating rose from 42.5% to 45.8%. But, as of ...
47
votes
9answers
7k views
Why is there such a partisan divide on confidence in science in the US?
A study conducted by the Pew Research Center and published in February presents eight key findings on Americans’ confidence in science and their views on scientists’ role in society, drawn from a ...
1
vote
0answers
201 views
What other EU countries' population (besides Italy) see China and/or Russia as their best friend(s) and Germany as their worst enemy?
An Euractiv article, points to SWG a poll among Italians that finds China and Russia being considered friendly countries now in Italy while Germany and France are seen as enemies:
(One can't help but ...
4
votes
1answer
169 views
Have any polls been conducted measuring support for the WHO?
In the past few weeks, we have seen some countries criticize the World Health Organization, particularly from Japan, and more recently the US President's withdrawal of WHO funding subject to a review.
...
2
votes
1answer
328 views
Is there a correlation between a President's approval rating on Election day and their popular vote margin during re-election?
I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide. This ...
13
votes
5answers
2k views
Are there any polls explicitly measuring “quarantine fatigue” in Western countries?
There are numerous articles talking about how people are tired of staying in lockdown:
As Greece enters its third week since restrictive measures were first
imposed to combat the spread of ...
4
votes
1answer
182 views
How has public opinion of the European Union changed as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
The response of the EU to the COVID-19 pandemic has not exactly been unified. Despite finally reaching agreement on a €500bn rescue package on Thursday, this came after weeks of argument, particularly ...
4
votes
2answers
244 views
Why do Catholics support European integration more than Protestants?
In their paper Does Religion Matter?: Christianity and Public Support for the European Union, Nelsen et. al explore the effect of religious denomination, and the strength of that religious conviction ...
1
vote
1answer
152 views
How are the job approval ratings of Governor Andrew Cuomo and mayor Bill de Blasio faring during the COVID-19 crisis?
There has been a question here about the job approval rating of Trump in this Covid-19 pandemic. (Slight increase.)
I wonder how the governor and mayor of US most affected US state & city, that ...
31
votes
10answers
4k views
Is there an explanation for why ~20% of Americans think the US's response to COVID-19 has been better than South Korea's?
In this article, it's claimed that 20% of the US thinks the US is handling the COVID-19 outbreak better than South Korea, 21% think it's about the same, 26% think it's worse, and 32% aren't sure. This ...
24
votes
5answers
7k views
How has the handling of the coronavirus outbreak (CoViD-19) affected Donald Trump's approval ratings?
From the outside it appears that the coronavirus (CoViD-19) outbreak has caught the USA off guard and that it's been handled quite poorly to date. So my assumption is that this would have a negative ...
9
votes
1answer
432 views
Are there any surveys in the US on whether “preserving the American way” is worth the risk of sacrificing their elderly to COVID-19?
CNBC reported that:
[Dan] Patrick, the Texas lieutenant governor, said Monday on Fox News, “As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America ...
13
votes
1answer
193 views
Has the effect of crises on leaders' approval ratings been researched?
In the last few weeks, the leaders of practically every country I've looked at have seen their approval ratings improve significantly. An obvious conclusion to draw is that this is due to the COVID-19 ...
25
votes
5answers
11k views
Why are states easily won by Bernie Sanders in 2016 not supporting him in 2020?
In Oklahoma, for example, the results of the 2016 primary gave Sanders a 10% lead over Clinton, while in Minnesota, the gap was even larger at 23%. In his home state of Vermont, Sanders won by over 70%...
-1
votes
1answer
180 views
How much margin does a U.S. Democratic President need? [duplicate]
In the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election, Gore won the popular vote by 0.5% and lost the Electoral College vote.
In the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election, Obama won the popular vote by 7% and won the ...
