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4
votes
1answer
258 views

Why does Biden show two trend-lines with his polls?

Looking at the poll numbers shown by realclearpolitics.com for 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Specifically Biden's poll numbers. There seems to be two trend-lines for him instead of one. One ...
2
votes
0answers
149 views

How does Indonesia's unofficial presidential election tally finish with “head-snapping” speed?

The NPR News item and podcast In Indonesia, Joko Widodo Secures Another 5-Year Term As President quotes Indonesian president Joko Widodo, and continues: "Let us reunite as family. Let us strengthen ...
9
votes
1answer
337 views

Evidence in support of highly myopic retrospective voting

I am reading Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. In Chapter 6 and 7, evidence is shown that "voters' retrospective assessments of the economy are quite myopic." ...
0
votes
1answer
171 views

What explains the big “D” shift in Utah in the last 4 years?

The following map kinda makes sense from the "why" perspective in most places, but one area that kind of threw me off as hard to explain was Utah experiencing major shift towards Democrats, in nearly ...
18
votes
3answers
3k views

Did the candidacy of Ross Perot swing the 1992 presidential election?

Reading the Wikipedia article on the 1992 presidential candidacy of Ross Perot, one would get the impression that it made no difference to the outcome of the election. However, after looking at the ...
4
votes
1answer
151 views

Is the National Front's presidential election chances dependent on which party opposes it in the run-off?

In the 2002 French presidential election, Jacques Chirac from the centre-right Rally for the Republic won with a large margin against Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front. I have a suspicion that ...
1
vote
1answer
341 views

Where can I do my own analysis of exit poll data?

All the media sites do their own rollups of the exit poll data, but the dimensions they pick are static. Is there any site where I can pivot on my own sets of dimensions? E.g. I see married men went ...
33
votes
1answer
7k views

Were there any U.S. Presidents that were very unpopular when elected?

I've read in a few news sources that whoever wins the current 2016 presidential election will already have generally low (below 45%) favorability among the general U.S. population, even among people ...
18
votes
2answers
1k views

Have pollsters examined the possibility of a “shy Tory factor” in the 2016 presidential election?

Most of the polling for the 2016 US presidential election have been favourable to Hillary Clinton. One of the biggest questions I have right now is whether the polling is accurate. In particular, ...
5
votes
3answers
788 views

Why did Gary Johnson's support erode in late October 2016?

We all know that he had been, a few months back, a viable candidate in the Libertarian party, for progressives and conservatives, who were disaffected with Trump as the GOP nominee with his disgusting ...
1
vote
1answer
206 views

FiveThirtyEight: Polls Only vs Now Cast

Here are the latest forecast probabilities on FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight Clinton Trump --------------- ------- ----- Polls Only 51.0 49.0 Now Cast 56.8 ...
-2
votes
1answer
274 views

What is the percentage of Republican voters who would/wouldn't vote for a female President?

Are there any polls which estimate what percentage of Republican voters would/wouldn't vote for a female Presidential candidate in a general election if said candidate was in line with their political ...