Questions tagged [statistics]

For questions about data with a relation to politics. Related tags: [reference-request], [data-sources] & [voting-records]. For general statistics questions, please see our sister site Cross Validated.

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7
votes
3answers
1k views

Correlation between county-level college education level and swing towards Democrats from 2016-2020?

On the Census.gov website, there is a feature to see how much of a population has a bachelor's degree or higher in education. I want to see the county-level correlation between how much of the ...
3
votes
1answer
62 views

Comparison of Presidential and House results by District

I've read a number of articles that have talked about the difference between down ticket results during the 2020 elections and the Presidential race. But I've been unable to find raw data because the ...
-3
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1answer
268 views

What were the 2020 Presidential Results in TX-15 specifically?

I am interested in the 2020 presidential election by congressional district. I am particularly interested in the 15th district of Texas. This is a South Texas district where the Democrat won by 3 ...
3
votes
1answer
150 views

What, if anything, has been done to account for mail-in votes in 2020 exit poll data?

Traditionally, exit polls are done by physically presenting a subset voters with an anonymous survey as they exit the polling place. In normal years, this provides a fairly good picture of the ...
8
votes
2answers
285 views

How did Arizona get so close to upsetting Arnon Mishkin's “t-stat of 4” statement defending his decision team's call?

On November 3rd, Arnon Mishkin, a statistician and director of the Fox News decision team, called Arizona for Biden with ~25% of votes still uncounted. When called upon to defend his decision, he ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Estimated bounds for margin of error in US election results?

When one sets out to measure a thing, one expects various sorts of errors to occur in the measurement.... depending on context one might have: errors with the measuring instrument, errors due to ...
2
votes
1answer
131 views

How many congressional districts produced a split result in the 2020 House and Presidential elections?

I was trying to find out more about districts who voted for one party for president and the other for House. We have data on this for 1972 to 2016. I am asking because I'm researching polarization. ...
0
votes
1answer
54 views

Where can I find data on US party affiliations, broken down geographically?

Where can I find data on US party affiliations, broken down geographically? I'd like to do some statistical analysis on party affiliations within states, broken down geographically. Here's the kicker: ...
4
votes
1answer
178 views

Correlation between 538's urbanization index and vote margin 2020?

538 did an article about the urban-rural divide. It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0.69 in 2016 and 0.55 in 2012. (There was one big exception: Vermont.) ...
7
votes
1answer
236 views

By how much have past state recounts differed from their original vote counts?

In past US Presidential Elections, by how much have state recounts differed from their original counts? (in terms of absolute number of votes, but most importantly, in terms of percent of overall ...
3
votes
1answer
128 views

Has a party ever picked up congressional seats in the general election and lost the presidential election in the USA?

Has it ever happened before that a major party in the USA has increased its number of seats and still went on to lose the presidency, or has losing the presidency always come with fewer House/Senate ...
9
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3answers
3k views

How can election winners of states be confirmed, although the remaining uncounted votes are more than the difference in votes?

For the US presidential elections, the Associated Press announced winners for several states although a significant portion of the votes were uncounted. One example is Illinois where at the moment of ...
73
votes
2answers
13k views

Why is the Economist model so sure Trump is going to lose compared to other models?

The Economist model never showed Trump as a clear favorite. In recent weeks, it said he has had less than 10% chance of winning the electoral college. It currently says his chances are particularly ...
0
votes
0answers
7 views

How to find information about national export distribution discounting input imports?

I'm interested in the export distribution of the state I live in (specifically, it's Israel, but that's not the main point). Now, there's definitely information about world states' distribution of ...
2
votes
1answer
119 views

Where did this figure showing shifts in support between 2016 and 2020 come from?

The article https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/09/why-trump-is-losing/ has an image showing shifts in support between 2016 and 2020. Where does this figure come from? While it says Pew ...
2
votes
1answer
130 views

What percentage of voters lived in a precinct where Republican house candidate got less than 5% of the vote in 2016 and 2018?

I am interested in "Republican free zones". They are seldom completely Republican free, but they are called such because you could have 10 neighbors and not know a single Republican voter. ...
-2
votes
1answer
88 views

Swing from 1994 to 2018 by town for MA governor?

I was thinking about how Charlie Baker did worse in 2018 than Bill Weld in 1994. I believe that this had to do with partisanship and increased straight ticket voting. I looked at county level data, ...
1
vote
1answer
71 views

In which congressional districts were there more votes for the Democratic candidate in 2018 than in 2016?

I was thinking about the turnout of the 2018 House elections and it looked like that was a presidential election level Democratic turnout from the standpoint of House of Representatives. It even beat ...
0
votes
1answer
88 views

Historical record of Senate primary vote total predicting statewide presidential result

I was thinking about a potential swing state (Georgia) and the fact that the Democrats got 8 percentage points more votes than the Republicans. I was thinking about the historical accuracy of this as ...
3
votes
2answers
110 views

Do primary vote totals tend to indicate the winner in the general election for US Senate?

In June, the Democratic Party won the primary vote in Georgia by ~9 percentage points, 1.19 million to 0.99 million. Do Senate primary vote totals where both sides are having competitive primaries ...
2
votes
1answer
270 views

Longest negative popular vote bellwether US county streak?

I was thinking about negative bellwethers, which are things that generally pick the losing candidate. A positive popular vote bellwether could be New Mexico dating back to 1964. This means it always ...
1
vote
2answers
213 views

Is the number of protestors proportional to public solidarity?

In other words is the amount of protesting people proportional to the amount of dissatisfied people in general? Let's say there are 1000 protesters, does it mean that there must let's say 100,000 ...
-1
votes
2answers
78 views

Range of vote percentages in DC in 2012 and 2016 for president?

I want to know the range of two-party votes for the Republican presidential candidate that 95% of precincts fell in. The other 5% has slightly less or more. And, I would like to see a bar graph for ...
0
votes
1answer
131 views

What was attributed to Trump's narrower margin of victory in Texas compared to Romney?

Romney won Texas by 16 points in 2012. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016. Both candidates got more votes though Clinton got more of an increase. Did Clinton come closer to winning it because of ...
1
vote
1answer
130 views

Is the tendency for mail-in voters to support incumbents in primary elections due to a 'red shift'?

Over the last few weeks, I have noticed something interesting in the primaries, especially in New York. I noticed a "red shift" where mail-in ballots favored the incumbent. What I mean by ...
4
votes
1answer
475 views

Amongst U.S. police forces, are combat veterans more likely to abuse force than those who lack combat experience? [closed]

In the United States, amongst police forces, are combat veterans more likely to abuse force than those who lack combat experience? In my opinion, the main difficulties are in the definitions of ...
3
votes
2answers
256 views

Is ticket splitting correlated with low information?

I am interested in what factors are correlated with ticket-splitting in the United States, particularly whether voters with low information are more likely to vote for a split-ticket. The motivation ...
5
votes
1answer
152 views

Why is the USA so much more religious then other developed nations [duplicate]

The USA is an outlier in it's overall religiosity (ie percentage of citizens that consider religion a major factor in their lives) when it comes to developed & wealthy nations, being nearly twice ...
2
votes
4answers
348 views

Is California more liberal than Vermont?

I was thinking about why California is more liberal, or at least more Democratic than Vermont. Here are a bunch of reasons that are strongly correlated with liberalism in the US. Demographic reasons: ...
1
vote
1answer
162 views

Are liberal republicans concentrated in the Deep South?

I saw another question asking why Bernie Sanders has a high approval among Republicans. I wrote in the comment that it could be because of racial bloc voting in the south where most whites vote ...
3
votes
1answer
73 views

Representatives of districts that are 50 to 65 percent Hispanic by party?

I was thinking about congressional districts. I found that there was one type of majority-minority district that could be plausibly represented by a Republican. These are districts between 50 and 65 ...
0
votes
1answer
97 views

Did 2016 set a record for the number of electoral votes in jurisdictions voting more Republican than the national average?

In 2016, 320 electoral votes belonged to states (and Maine's 2nd congressional district) that voted more Republican than the national average. That is all the states Trump won and ME-2 plus Minnesota ...
13
votes
2answers
2k views

Is political polarization in the US geographically uneven?

I have been wondering about polarization. Let's use the (lack of) elasticity as a metric for polarization. Elasticity is how much a state or district moves with the national mood on average. Here are ...
3
votes
1answer
77 views

What was the correlation between a US state's Hispanic population and two party vote share for Hillary Clinton?

I was thinking about what the correlation between two variables would be. Namely these are the percent Hispanic in a state and the percent non third party voting Democratic in the 2016 election. What ...
24
votes
2answers
4k views

In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States that are: “the closest races” and “close to the tipping point”?

In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
2
votes
1answer
205 views

Precincts where GOP House candidates got <1% of the vote in 2018?

I was thinking about this question about the 2016 presidential election. I was thinking about the results of the 2018 midterms. I was thinking about that question, but a little bit differently as like ...
0
votes
2answers
171 views

How many minority-majority districts are there?

I want to know more about minority-majority districts. How many of them are there, and what percentage of minority-majority districts are represented by Democrats in the House of Representatives? It ...
12
votes
4answers
7k views

Are there more Democrats than Republicans in the United States?

I have been thinking about the Democratic Party and whether or not its members are more numerous than the opposing faction. Evidence to suggest this is the case: This party is expected to win the ...
0
votes
1answer
240 views

Why hasn't the USA done a statistical sampling of COVID cases?

In all the media reports I have seen over the past few months with respect to the COVID pandemic, I have never heard about any statistically random testing done at any level (state, federal). From my ...
-1
votes
1answer
77 views

Is there a swing map of 2017 Senate and 2016 President in Alabama?

I want to see a picture of a county-level swing map of the 2017 Senate election for Alabama relative to the 2016 presidential election. This is to see how many points the election swung in Democrat ...
5
votes
1answer
165 views

How does the Trump administrations “rate of attrition” compare to past administrations? [duplicate]

There have been a number of high-profile firings / forced resignations / etc in recent years originating from the Trump administration. Some of these, such as John Bolton, have ended up as media ...
13
votes
1answer
388 views

How much looting has actually occurred during the recent protests in the US?

In recent weeks, the US was rocked by waves of massive protests, following the police killing of George Floyd, and later additional citizens (but of course fueled by and concerned with much more than ...
13
votes
2answers
4k views

Did Hillary Clinton win the popular vote by 2.09 or 2.22 percentage points?

I read in two sources that the 2016 popular vote was Democratic by 2.09 percentage points (48.18% Clinton, 46.09% Trump). I also read it was by 2.22 percentage points (51.11% Clinton, 48.89% Trump). I ...
6
votes
1answer
131 views

How does polling work in the United States?

As we approach the presidential election, polling statistics seem to be referenced more than ever. I've never had the opportunity to be included in polls. This leads me to wonder; Who is polled? How ...
4
votes
1answer
144 views

How are deaths recorded and reported in the US?

The current COVID-19 pandemic made me curious how deaths are counted by various governments at all levels. As there is a lot of doubt as to how the cause of death is attributed in various cases, I was ...
5
votes
1answer
288 views

What percentage of African-American Republicans are conservative?

I saw a Gallup article that says that 69% of Republicans overall identify as conservative. I am thinking about a small proportion of Republican voters which is a large proportion of Democratic voters: ...
6
votes
1answer
275 views

Which states returned the most third party votes in the 2016 presidential election?

I'm curious about which states in the 2016 US presidential election got the most third party votes. I want the top 5 states by percentage down to 1/10 of a percent that shows what the highest 3rd ...
-3
votes
1answer
149 views

Has the WHO or any individual countries released COVID-19 statistics divided on basis of sex?

In February 2019, the U.S.A released HIV statistics based on sex: Have the WHO or any individual countries released COVID-19 statistics divided on this basis?
4
votes
0answers
247 views

Which EU country has the most violent police force?

I hope this is the right sub to post this in. I am looking for a peer-reviewed study which compares the number of violent incidences committed by police officers against civilians in different EU ...
2
votes
2answers
254 views

Why did the Chinese government change their publicly-reported COVID-19 infection and death rates?

Until mid-April 2020, the Chinese government presented a certain set of figures regarding the infection and death rates from COVID-19 within China. Many people questioned those figures, but had no ...