Questions tagged [statistics]

For questions about data with a relation to politics. Related tags: [reference-request], [data-sources] & [voting-records]. For general statistics questions, please see our sister site Cross Validated.

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How would I find Ancestry/Ethnicity data by state on Census.gov?

I am trying to find out, on a state-by-state (city/county as well, if possible) basis, what the population makeup is based on ancestry/ethnicity (i.e. Polish). For example, "what percentage of ...
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7 votes
1 answer
295 views

Why are education and poverty strongly correlated in South Africa?

As you can read in this statistics paper, in South Africa, the share of individuals attending school and the share of low-income women-led households is strongly correlated. Why?
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6 votes
1 answer
114 views

What are the usual ways to measure "government self-serving expense"?

I have a pet statistic: for Brazil, the price of congress per year equals 0.1% of the GNP (see the cost of congress and the GNP) I figure that either someone already uses this statistic, and is ...
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4 votes
0 answers
132 views

Why is the total fertility rate so low in Puerto Rico?

The World Bank estimate of 2018 puts the Puerto Rico which is ranked separately from the U.S. in 199th place out of 185 sovereign states and 15 separately listed dependencies in total fertility rate (...
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4 votes
1 answer
149 views

Did the 2022 Southend West by-election set a record for the highest number of spoilt ballots in a Parliamentary election?

The 2022 Southend West by-election was held on February 3rd, to elect a replacement for the previous incumbent Sir David Amess, who was murdered while attending a constituency surgery in October 2021. ...
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1 vote
1 answer
209 views

Why did the world average CO_2 emissions per capita dip in the 1990s? [closed]

According to this chart, per-capita CO_2 emissions in the world peaked in the late 1980s, then dipped quickly, and did not reach their 1989 level again until 2011. What are the major factors ...
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6 votes
1 answer
235 views

How big a short term debt ceiling increase is McConnell agreeing to?

Senate Republicans have thus far refused to raise the debt ceiling, which needs to be raised by October 18 to prevent the US Government from defaulting on the national debt. They have been insisting ...
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1 vote
1 answer
250 views

"Shut out" districts in 2021's NYC Republican mayoral primary -- how did they vote in the Democratic primary and 2020 presidential race combined?

Looking at the 2021 mayoral election, I have seen more shut-out precincts in the NYC mayoral primary than in other elections in this city. I understand there are caveats to talking about the shut out ...
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13 votes
2 answers
2k views

Who has held the largest number of different UK Cabinet positions?

On June 26th, Sajid Javid replaced Matt Hancock as the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care after the latter's resignation. This is Javid's sixth cabinet-level position within seven years: ...
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10 votes
2 answers
2k views

When was the last time that a major party in GB polled <2% in a constituency?

The Labour Party garnered just 1.6% of the vote in the Chesham and Amersham by-election. When was the last time that a major party (Conservative or Labour) received <2% of the vote in a Great ...
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6 votes
1 answer
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Do people without children spend longer time in retirement homes?

This came up when discussing the 'Pflegereform' in Germany. Everyone has to pay a proportion of their income and this tax is used to help pay for the cost of retirement homes for old people. The ...
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0 votes
1 answer
257 views

Relative state legislative special election performance so far: which party is leading?

I have been wondering about state legislative special elections. They are more numerous than House elections, and therefore are likely a better predictor of results. Relative to the district's ...
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1 vote
1 answer
103 views

Any US deportation illegal immigrants statistics by presidents?

Different US presidents usually have different view on the question of adopting illegal immigrants. Some, for example D.Trump are generally opposing immigration, some, like current POTUS J.Biden, are ...
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2 votes
1 answer
607 views

What is the number of elected politicians at all levels in the world?

There are 519,000 elected politicians in the USA at all levels of government. At all levels of government, approximately how many elected politicians are there worldwide? A lower/upper bound would be ...
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7 votes
1 answer
2k views

About how many Joe Biden voters are represented by Republicans in the House, and vice versa?

I want to know about how many people are living in places where they are represented by people of the other party. I know there were a lot of crossover districts, but that is not the point. In other ...
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  • 11.2k
1 vote
1 answer
111 views

Where can New Mexico early voting statistics be obtained?

I am following the special election in New Mexico's 1st district. I found this from an article here: According to the Secretary of State’s Office, more than 1,000 Democrats have voted, about 400 ...
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9 votes
3 answers
600 views

Is there any formal research into the concept of "nothing more permanent than a temporary government program"?

According to a quote attributed to Milton Friedman, "there's nothing more permanent than a temporary government program". Is there any formal academic research into this concept, i.e. ...
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6 votes
1 answer
501 views

Are female police officers one-sixth as likely to kill as their male colleagues?

The incidence of people dying due to use of force by the police is a high profile issue at the moment. Figures about the distribution of these deaths, such as found in this paper, can be compared to ...
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  • 841
4 votes
1 answer
251 views

Is there a correlation between a county's swing towards Democrats from 2004-2020 and increase in minority population?

In 2020's presidential election, it was shown that Joe Biden lost support from nonwhite voters, most of whom were ideologically conservative. However, he not only still won this voting group, but he ...
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  • 11.2k
2 votes
1 answer
138 views

How many migrants have obtained Convention Against Torture protection under Title 42?

In March 2020, the Trump Administration invoked an obscure infectious disease provision in Title 42 of the US Code, allowing Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) agents to turn away migrants who show up at ...
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6 votes
0 answers
88 views

How much of votes in the European Parliament fall on party (group) lines as opposed to country (groups) lines?

Some votes in the European Parliament fall on geographical/country lines. I'm pretty sure (many) others probably fall on a more traditional ideological (e.g. left-right) divide between EP party groups ...
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6 votes
2 answers
218 views

Statistics on US political affiliation by industry?

Are there any statistics available on political affiliation/preferences by industry? I got curious when wondering how much the Democrat / Republican split would differ between industries like Primary ...
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15 votes
1 answer
2k views

Seeking a study claiming that a successful coup d’etat only requires a small percentage of the population

I remember coming across a study, possibly featured in a John Oliver segment, that found that a successful coup needs only a surprisingly small percentage of the population; I think it was like 1-3% ...
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  • 161
5 votes
1 answer
235 views

In the US, have COVID deaths been evenly distributed among registered party voters?

In the US, have COVID-19 deaths been evenly distributed among registered party voters? That is, early in 2020 the blue states were the first to suffer. Later in 2020, the red states are suffering. ...
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1 vote
1 answer
100 views

Total hours of Brexit negotiations? [closed]

Brexit negotiations are important, as there is much to lose on both sides. But I am wondering: How many hours were spent since the referendum on negotiation talks? Is it possible to estimate? I could ...
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  • 139
1 vote
1 answer
162 views

Shift by precinct NYC 2016 to 2020?

I read a tweet from the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman saying that NYC had a larger shift towards Trump than any state in the country. It shifted 7.4 points towards Trump compared to his 1st ...
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7 votes
3 answers
1k views

Correlation between county-level college education level and swing towards Democrats from 2016-2020?

On the Census.gov website, there is a feature to see how much of a population has a bachelor's degree or higher in education. I want to see the county-level correlation between how much of the ...
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3 votes
1 answer
115 views

Comparison of Presidential and House results by District

I've read a number of articles that have talked about the difference between down ticket results during the 2020 elections and the Presidential race. But I've been unable to find raw data because the ...
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1 vote
1 answer
513 views

What were the 2020 Presidential Results in TX-15 specifically?

I am interested in the 2020 presidential election by congressional district. I am particularly interested in the 15th district of Texas. This is a South Texas district where the Democrat won by 3 ...
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  • 11.2k
3 votes
1 answer
243 views

What, if anything, has been done to account for mail-in votes in 2020 exit poll data?

Traditionally, exit polls are done by physically presenting a subset of voters with an anonymous survey as they exit the polling place. In normal years, this provides a fairly good picture of the ...
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8 votes
2 answers
359 views

How did Arizona get so close to upsetting Arnon Mishkin's "t-stat of 4" statement defending his decision team's call?

On November 3rd, Arnon Mishkin, a statistician and director of the Fox News decision team, called Arizona for Biden with ~25% of votes still uncounted. When called upon to defend his decision, he ...
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7 votes
1 answer
1k views

Estimated bounds for margin of error in US election results?

When one sets out to measure a thing, one expects various sorts of errors to occur in the measurement.... depending on context one might have: errors with the measuring instrument, errors due to ...
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1 vote
1 answer
276 views

How many congressional districts produced a split result in the 2020 House and Presidential elections?

I was trying to find out more about districts who voted for one party for president and the other for House. We have data on this for 1972 to 2016. I am asking because I'm researching polarization. ...
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  • 11.2k
1 vote
1 answer
77 views

Where can I find data on US party affiliations, broken down geographically?

Where can I find data on US party affiliations, broken down geographically? I'd like to do some statistical analysis on party affiliations within states, broken down geographically. Here's the kicker: ...
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  • 121
3 votes
1 answer
278 views

Correlation between 538's urbanization index and vote margin 2020?

538 did an article about the urban-rural divide. It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0.69 in 2016 and 0.55 in 2012. (There was one big exception: Vermont.) ...
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4 votes
0 answers
82 views

How do these different methods of measuring the closeness of an election compare to each other?

Suppose we have an election held over multiple districts (e.g., a first-past-the-post legislative election, or a US-presidential style electoral college). There are several ways you could measure how ...
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  • 141
7 votes
1 answer
266 views

By how much have past state recounts differed from their original vote counts?

In past US Presidential Elections, by how much have state recounts differed from their original counts? (in terms of absolute number of votes, but most importantly, in terms of percent of overall ...
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  • 2,011
2 votes
1 answer
152 views

Has a party ever picked up congressional seats in the general election and lost the presidential election in the USA?

Has it ever happened before that a major party in the USA has increased its number of seats and still went on to lose the presidency, or has losing the presidency always come with fewer House/Senate ...
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9 votes
3 answers
3k views

How can election winners of states be confirmed, although the remaining uncounted votes are more than the difference in votes?

For the US presidential elections, the Associated Press announced winners for several states although a significant portion of the votes were uncounted. One example is Illinois where at the moment of ...
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73 votes
2 answers
13k views

Why was the Economist model so sure Trump was going to lose compared to other models?

The Economist model never showed Trump as a clear favorite. In 2020, it said he has had less than 10% chance of winning the electoral college. In October 2020 it said that his chances were ...
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2 votes
1 answer
188 views

Where did this figure showing shifts in support between 2016 and 2020 come from?

This article has an image showing shifts in support between 2016 and 2020. Where does this figure come from? While it says Pew Research Center, I can't find this figure on their site.
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1 vote
1 answer
240 views

What percentage of voters lived in a precinct where Republican house candidate got less than 5% of the vote in 2016 and 2018?

I am interested in "Republican free zones". They are seldom completely Republican free, but they are called such because you could have 10 neighbors and not know a single Republican voter. ...
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-2 votes
1 answer
110 views

Swing from 1994 to 2018 by town for MA governor?

I was thinking about how Charlie Baker did worse in 2018 than Bill Weld in 1994. I believe that this had to do with partisanship and increased straight ticket voting. I looked at county level data, ...
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  • 11.2k
1 vote
1 answer
178 views

In which congressional districts were there more votes for the Democratic candidate in 2018 than in 2016?

I was thinking about the turnout of the 2018 House elections and it looked like that was a presidential election level Democratic turnout from the standpoint of House of Representatives. It even beat ...
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  • 11.2k
0 votes
1 answer
100 views

Historical record of Senate primary vote total predicting statewide presidential result

I was thinking about a potential swing state (Georgia) and the fact that the Democrats got 8 percentage points more votes than the Republicans. I was thinking about the historical accuracy of this as ...
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  • 11.2k
3 votes
2 answers
121 views

Do primary vote totals tend to indicate the winner in the general election for US Senate?

In June, the Democratic Party won the primary vote in Georgia by ~9 percentage points, 1.19 million to 0.99 million. Do Senate primary vote totals where both sides are having competitive primaries ...
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  • 11.2k
1 vote
1 answer
302 views

Longest negative popular vote bellwether US county streak?

I was thinking about negative bellwethers, which are things that generally pick the losing candidate. A positive popular vote bellwether could be New Mexico dating back to 1964. This means it always ...
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  • 11.2k
0 votes
2 answers
235 views

Is the number of protestors proportional to public solidarity?

In other words is the amount of protesting people proportional to the amount of dissatisfied people in general? Let's say there are 1000 protesters, does it mean that there must let's say 100,000 ...
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  • 605
-1 votes
2 answers
86 views

Range of vote percentages in DC in 2012 and 2016 for president?

I want to know the range of two-party votes for the Republican presidential candidate that 95% of precincts fell in. The other 5% has slightly less or more. And, I would like to see a bar graph for ...
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  • 11.2k
0 votes
1 answer
157 views

What was attributed to Trump's narrower margin of victory in Texas compared to Romney?

Romney won Texas by 16 points in 2012. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016. Both candidates got more votes though Clinton got more of an increase. Did Clinton come closer to winning it because of ...
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