Questions tagged [statistics]

For questions about data with a relation to politics. Related tags: [reference-request], [data-sources] & [voting-records]. For general statistics questions, please see our sister site Cross Validated.

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3
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1answer
103 views

Shut-out precincts in 2021 New Jersey governor's Republican primary?

In 2008 and 2012, and to a lesser extent 2016, there were some precincts where Republicans got no votes. Example of a shut-out precinct in Louisiana's 2nd district special election, 2021: I found ...
6
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1answer
156 views

Do people without children spend longer time in retirement homes?

This came up when discussing the 'Pflegereform' in Germany. Everyone has to pay a proportion of their income and this tax is used to help pay for the cost of retirement homes for old people. The ...
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1answer
133 views
+50

Relative state legislative special election performance so far: which party is leading?

I have been wondering about state legislative special elections. They are more numerous than House elections, and therefore are likely a better predictor of results. Relative to the district's ...
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1answer
94 views

Any US deportation illegal immigrants statistics by presidents?

Different US presidents usually have different view on the question of adopting illegal immigrants. Some, for example D.Trump are generally opposing immigration, some, like current POTUS J.Biden, are ...
2
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1answer
240 views

What is the number of elected politicians at all levels in the world?

There are 519,000 elected politicians in the USA at all levels of government. At all levels of government, approximately how many elected politicians are there worldwide? A lower/upper bound would be ...
7
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1answer
2k views

About how many Joe Biden voters are represented by Republicans in the House, and vice versa?

I want to know about how many people are living in places where they are represented by people of the other party. I know there were a lot of crossover districts, but that is not the point. In other ...
1
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1answer
57 views

Where can New Mexico early voting statistics be obtained?

I am following the special election in New Mexico's 1st district. I found this from an article here: According to the Secretary of State’s Office, more than 1,000 Democrats have voted, about 400 ...
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3answers
404 views

Is there any formal research into the concept of “nothing more permanent than a temporary government program”?

According to a quote attributed to Milton Friedman, "there's nothing more permanent than a temporary government program". Is there any formal academic research into this concept, i.e. ...
3
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1answer
459 views

Are female police officers one-sixth as likely to kill as their male colleagues?

The incidence of people dying due to use of force by the police is a high profile issue at the moment. Figures about the distribution of these deaths, such as found in this paper, can be compared to ...
3
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1answer
194 views

Is there a correlation between a county's swing towards Democrats from 2004-2020 and increase in minority population?

In 2020's presidential election, it was shown that Joe Biden lost support from nonwhite voters, most of whom were ideologically conservative. However, he not only still won this voting group, but he ...
0
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1answer
132 views

What is the average net income in Germany? [closed]

According to oecd.org, the net income of a single person at 100% of average earnings (no child) after taxes was 42,697.59 US dollars. But when I look at de.statista.com, they state that the average ...
2
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1answer
118 views

How many migrants have obtained Convention Against Torture protection under Title 42?

In March 2020, the Trump Administration invoked an obscure infectious disease provision in Title 42 of the US Code, allowing Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) agents to turn away migrants who show up at ...
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0answers
85 views

How much of votes in the European Parliament fall on party (group) lines as opposed to country (groups) lines?

Some votes in the European Parliament fall on geographical/country lines. I'm pretty sure (many) others probably fall on a more traditional ideological (e.g. left-right) divide between EP party groups ...
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2answers
203 views

Statistics on US political affiliation by industry?

Are there any statistics available on political affiliation/preferences by industry? I got curious when wondering how much the Democrat / Republican split would differ between industries like Primary ...
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1answer
2k views

Seeking a study claiming that a successful coup d’etat only requires a small percentage of the population

I remember coming across a study, possibly featured in a John Oliver segment, that found that a successful coup needs only a surprisingly small percentage of the population; I think it was like 1-3% ...
5
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1answer
212 views

In the US, have COVID deaths been evenly distributed among registered party voters?

In the US, have COVID-19 deaths been evenly distributed among registered party voters? That is, early in 2020 the blue states were the first to suffer. Later in 2020, the red states are suffering. ...
1
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1answer
94 views

Total hours of Brexit negotiations? [closed]

Brexit negotiations are important, as there is much to lose on both sides. But I am wondering: How many hours were spent since the referendum on negotiation talks? Is it possible to estimate? I could ...
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1answer
135 views

Shift by precinct NYC 2016 to 2020?

I read a tweet from the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman saying that NYC had a larger shift towards Trump than any state in the country. It shifted 7.4 points towards Trump compared to his 1st ...
7
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3answers
1k views

Correlation between county-level college education level and swing towards Democrats from 2016-2020?

On the Census.gov website, there is a feature to see how much of a population has a bachelor's degree or higher in education. I want to see the county-level correlation between how much of the ...
3
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1answer
75 views

Comparison of Presidential and House results by District

I've read a number of articles that have talked about the difference between down ticket results during the 2020 elections and the Presidential race. But I've been unable to find raw data because the ...
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1answer
407 views

What were the 2020 Presidential Results in TX-15 specifically?

I am interested in the 2020 presidential election by congressional district. I am particularly interested in the 15th district of Texas. This is a South Texas district where the Democrat won by 3 ...
3
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1answer
157 views

What, if anything, has been done to account for mail-in votes in 2020 exit poll data?

Traditionally, exit polls are done by physically presenting a subset voters with an anonymous survey as they exit the polling place. In normal years, this provides a fairly good picture of the ...
8
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2answers
323 views

How did Arizona get so close to upsetting Arnon Mishkin's “t-stat of 4” statement defending his decision team's call?

On November 3rd, Arnon Mishkin, a statistician and director of the Fox News decision team, called Arizona for Biden with ~25% of votes still uncounted. When called upon to defend his decision, he ...
7
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1answer
1k views

Estimated bounds for margin of error in US election results?

When one sets out to measure a thing, one expects various sorts of errors to occur in the measurement.... depending on context one might have: errors with the measuring instrument, errors due to ...
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1answer
238 views

How many congressional districts produced a split result in the 2020 House and Presidential elections?

I was trying to find out more about districts who voted for one party for president and the other for House. We have data on this for 1972 to 2016. I am asking because I'm researching polarization. ...
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1answer
60 views

Where can I find data on US party affiliations, broken down geographically?

Where can I find data on US party affiliations, broken down geographically? I'd like to do some statistical analysis on party affiliations within states, broken down geographically. Here's the kicker: ...
4
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1answer
215 views

Correlation between 538's urbanization index and vote margin 2020?

538 did an article about the urban-rural divide. It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0.69 in 2016 and 0.55 in 2012. (There was one big exception: Vermont.) ...
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1answer
256 views

By how much have past state recounts differed from their original vote counts?

In past US Presidential Elections, by how much have state recounts differed from their original counts? (in terms of absolute number of votes, but most importantly, in terms of percent of overall ...
3
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1answer
134 views

Has a party ever picked up congressional seats in the general election and lost the presidential election in the USA?

Has it ever happened before that a major party in the USA has increased its number of seats and still went on to lose the presidency, or has losing the presidency always come with fewer House/Senate ...
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3answers
3k views

How can election winners of states be confirmed, although the remaining uncounted votes are more than the difference in votes?

For the US presidential elections, the Associated Press announced winners for several states although a significant portion of the votes were uncounted. One example is Illinois where at the moment of ...
71
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2answers
13k views

Why is the Economist model so sure Trump is going to lose compared to other models?

The Economist model never showed Trump as a clear favorite. In recent weeks, it said he has had less than 10% chance of winning the electoral college. It currently says his chances are particularly ...
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0answers
8 views

How to find information about national export distribution discounting input imports?

I'm interested in the export distribution of the state I live in (specifically, it's Israel, but that's not the main point). Now, there's definitely information about world states' distribution of ...
2
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1answer
174 views

Where did this figure showing shifts in support between 2016 and 2020 come from?

This article has an image showing shifts in support between 2016 and 2020. Where does this figure come from? While it says Pew Research Center, I can't find this figure on their site.
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1answer
143 views

What percentage of voters lived in a precinct where Republican house candidate got less than 5% of the vote in 2016 and 2018?

I am interested in "Republican free zones". They are seldom completely Republican free, but they are called such because you could have 10 neighbors and not know a single Republican voter. ...
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1answer
99 views

Swing from 1994 to 2018 by town for MA governor?

I was thinking about how Charlie Baker did worse in 2018 than Bill Weld in 1994. I believe that this had to do with partisanship and increased straight ticket voting. I looked at county level data, ...
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1answer
75 views

In which congressional districts were there more votes for the Democratic candidate in 2018 than in 2016?

I was thinking about the turnout of the 2018 House elections and it looked like that was a presidential election level Democratic turnout from the standpoint of House of Representatives. It even beat ...
0
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1answer
89 views

Historical record of Senate primary vote total predicting statewide presidential result

I was thinking about a potential swing state (Georgia) and the fact that the Democrats got 8 percentage points more votes than the Republicans. I was thinking about the historical accuracy of this as ...
3
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2answers
111 views

Do primary vote totals tend to indicate the winner in the general election for US Senate?

In June, the Democratic Party won the primary vote in Georgia by ~9 percentage points, 1.19 million to 0.99 million. Do Senate primary vote totals where both sides are having competitive primaries ...
1
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1answer
287 views

Longest negative popular vote bellwether US county streak?

I was thinking about negative bellwethers, which are things that generally pick the losing candidate. A positive popular vote bellwether could be New Mexico dating back to 1964. This means it always ...
0
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2answers
230 views

Is the number of protestors proportional to public solidarity?

In other words is the amount of protesting people proportional to the amount of dissatisfied people in general? Let's say there are 1000 protesters, does it mean that there must let's say 100,000 ...
-1
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2answers
82 views

Range of vote percentages in DC in 2012 and 2016 for president?

I want to know the range of two-party votes for the Republican presidential candidate that 95% of precincts fell in. The other 5% has slightly less or more. And, I would like to see a bar graph for ...
0
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1answer
133 views

What was attributed to Trump's narrower margin of victory in Texas compared to Romney?

Romney won Texas by 16 points in 2012. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016. Both candidates got more votes though Clinton got more of an increase. Did Clinton come closer to winning it because of ...
1
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1answer
130 views

Is the tendency for mail-in voters to support incumbents in primary elections due to a 'red shift'?

Over the last few weeks, I have noticed something interesting in the primaries, especially in New York. I noticed a "red shift" where mail-in ballots favored the incumbent. What I mean by ...
4
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1answer
495 views

Amongst U.S. police forces, are combat veterans more likely to abuse force than those who lack combat experience? [closed]

In the United States, amongst police forces, are combat veterans more likely to abuse force than those who lack combat experience? In my opinion, the main difficulties are in the definitions of ...
3
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2answers
258 views

Is ticket splitting correlated with low information?

I am interested in what factors are correlated with ticket-splitting in the United States, particularly whether voters with low information are more likely to vote for a split-ticket. The motivation ...
5
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1answer
168 views

Why is the USA so much more religious then other developed nations [duplicate]

The USA is an outlier in it's overall religiosity (ie percentage of citizens that consider religion a major factor in their lives) when it comes to developed & wealthy nations, being nearly twice ...
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4answers
439 views

Is California more liberal than Vermont?

I was thinking about why California is more liberal, or at least more Democratic than Vermont. Here are a bunch of reasons that are strongly correlated with liberalism in the US. Demographic reasons: ...
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1answer
174 views

Are liberal republicans concentrated in the Deep South?

I saw another question asking why Bernie Sanders has a high approval among Republicans. I wrote in the comment that it could be because of racial bloc voting in the south where most whites vote ...
3
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1answer
75 views

Representatives of districts that are 50 to 65 percent Hispanic by party?

I was thinking about congressional districts. I found that there was one type of majority-minority district that could be plausibly represented by a Republican. These are districts between 50 and 65 ...
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1answer
97 views

Did 2016 set a record for the number of electoral votes in jurisdictions voting more Republican than the national average?

In 2016, 320 electoral votes belonged to states (and Maine's 2nd congressional district) that voted more Republican than the national average. That is all the states Trump won and ME-2 plus Minnesota ...