Questions tagged [statistics]

For questions about data with a relation to politics. Related tags: [reference-request], [data-sources] & [voting-records].

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
34
votes
10answers
10k views

Why are the Democrats & Republicans so homogeneous in their opinions of impeaching Trump?

If we look at the population of the US at large, as of time of writing, 84.7% of Democrats, 43.0% of Independents, and 9.4% of Republicans support impeachment. Meanwhile, in Congress, literally 100% ...
30
votes
2answers
3k views

Phenomenon where politically incorrect candidates do better in actual elections than in polls?

I've long hypothesised that a certain phenomenon may exist, and I wonder if there's any actual research on the subject. I'm asking for research, statistics, etc. on a macro level. However, I think it'...
24
votes
2answers
4k views

In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States that are: “the closest races” and “close to the tipping point”?

In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
18
votes
1answer
506 views

How does turnover in the Trump administration compare to previous administrations?

There have been a number of high-profile departures from the Trump administration for various reasons. For example: Michael Flynn, Hope Hicks, Rex Tillerson, Sean Spicer and many others. While this ...
13
votes
2answers
2k views

Is political polarization in the US geographically uneven?

I have been wondering about polarization. Let's use the (lack of) elasticity as a metric for polarization. Elasticity is how much a state or district moves with the national mood on average. Here are ...
13
votes
1answer
366 views

How much looting has actually occurred during the recent protests in the US?

In recent weeks, the US was rocked by waves of massive protests, following the police killing of George Floyd, and later additional citizens (but of course fueled by and concerned with much more than ...
12
votes
2answers
3k views

Did Hillary Clinton win the popular vote by 2.09 or 2.22 percentage points?

I read in two sources that the 2016 popular vote was Democratic by 2.09 percentage points (48.18% Clinton, 46.09% Trump). I also read it was by 2.22 percentage points (51.11% Clinton, 48.89% Trump). I ...
12
votes
1answer
170 views

Has anyone produced a time series of the Gini coefficient to current political party?

Has anyone ever done a global or regional time series of the Gini coefficient* mapped against the current ideological faction** in power? The more countries in the time series, the more informative ...
11
votes
3answers
4k views

Are there more Democrats than Republicans in the United States?

I have been thinking about the Democratic Party and whether or not its members are more numerous than the opposing faction. Evidence to suggest this is the case: This party is expected to win the ...
11
votes
1answer
271 views

How is corruption measured?

The 2012 Corruption Perceptions Index was just published and according to it, Greece has the dubious honour of being the most corrupted member of the European Union. Naturally this stung a bit, and ...
10
votes
2answers
408 views

Us Income Inequality adjusted for cost of living differences on a per county/city basis

Inequality has been a big issue in the US. Generally when we talk about cost of living, it's adjusted on a per state basis, but this masks a lot of true living conditions. Northern Virginia just ...
10
votes
1answer
15k views

What are the crime rates by religion in USA?

Not looking for hate crimes. Looking for percentage of crimes per capita broken down by religion of the perpetrator. (Example: 1M Protestants in USA, 10k crimes by Protestants, rate of 0.01% per ...
9
votes
2answers
1k views

What was the lowest known voter participation rate?

So, comments in this question mentioning extremes such as "nobody voted in election at all", led me to wonder: What was the election where the LEAST percentage of eligible voters participated? The ...
9
votes
3answers
4k views

Sweden rape statistics 2016

There has been a lot of discussions around an increase in Sweden's rape crime and it has been suggested that it was due to loose immigration policy. I cannot find any of the data for rape in Sweden ...
9
votes
1answer
361 views

Evidence in support of highly myopic retrospective voting

I am reading Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government. In Chapter 6 and 7, evidence is shown that "voters' retrospective assessments of the economy are quite myopic." ...
8
votes
2answers
2k views

People receiving federal assistance in the US

I'm trying to resolve a tension between two claims about people receiving various forms of federal assistance in the US. I'll illustrate the claims with a couple of links: On the one hand, it appears ...
8
votes
1answer
426 views

What happened to Islamic terrorism in 2018?

From Wikipedia, I gathered the following data (for the European Union): 2015: 17 attacks by Islamists with 150 deaths. 2016: 10 attacks by Islamists with 135 deaths. 2017: 10 attacks by Islamists ...
8
votes
3answers
751 views

Does categorizing/framing actions/labeling people based on intent stem the growth of that action?

I was wondering if labeling people and actions based on intent has had any observable affect on the actual action itself. i.e. Things like Terrorism or hate crimes Intuitively I can only see these ...
8
votes
3answers
2k views

What is the typical error in large vote counts?

Well the EU referendum happened in the UK and there was some talk about what happens if the result is a tie, or if it is very close. Apparently, there would not be a recount unless there was a ...
8
votes
2answers
489 views

Is there a correlation between protest size and public sympathy?

I wonder whether the scale of a political protest can be used as a proxy for public opinion on the protest issue. For example, a protest where 0.1% of the population attended. Can this be used to ...
7
votes
2answers
1k views

How do Google Trends results correlate with the actual party support?

Has anyone studied the correlation between party support in elections and Google Trends results? What is the conclusion? Especially I'm interested in the situation in Finland.
7
votes
2answers
307 views

Are there standardized ways to quantify political division?

Political division seems to be one of the main issues of our time, with countless articles, op-eds, and studies describing how the US and other countries (the UK comes immediately to mind) are ...
7
votes
1answer
334 views

Are there any studies about companies self-segregating politically?

There's some current dialogue about some big tech companies (google, twitter, facebook) displaying some bias in their actions. Whether that's true or not, it certainly seems that the composition of ...
6
votes
2answers
561 views

What exactly is "National Origin” with respect to US anti-discrimination laws?

In addition to the more familiar concepts of race, ethnicity, religion, disability, lawful immigration status etc., US anti-discrimination laws typically mention that it is also unlawful to ...
6
votes
1answer
465 views

Amongst U.S. police forces, are combat veterans more likely to abuse force than those who lack combat experience? [closed]

In the United States, amongst police forces, are combat veterans more likely to abuse force than those who lack combat experience? In my opinion, the main difficulties are in the definitions of ...
6
votes
1answer
123 views

How does polling work in the United States?

As we approach the presidential election, polling statistics seem to be referenced more than ever. I've never had the opportunity to be included in polls. This leads me to wonder; Who is polled? How ...
6
votes
1answer
1k views

Were there any voting districts with no votes for Obama?

Various news accounts and chain emails note that 50+ voting districts in Philadelphia, which are almost entirely black and with registered Republicans in the single digits, recorded zero votes for ...
6
votes
1answer
231 views

Statistics of Instant Runoff Voting

Has anyone published statistics on how many recounts (i.e. runoffs) are necessary for resolving an instant runoff election, versus the number of candidates? Data from real life would be good, but ...
6
votes
1answer
1k views

How does DW-Nominate determine whether a specific member of congress or vote is liberal or conservative?

The statistical methodology DW-Nominate is frequently seen as a more objective way of determining how liberal or conservative politicians are based on their voting record. Here's a few of many ...
5
votes
1answer
218 views

Which states returned the most third party votes in the 2016 presidential election?

I'm curious about which states in the 2016 US presidential election got the most third party votes. I want the top 5 states by percentage down to 1/10 of a percent that shows what the highest 3rd ...
5
votes
1answer
162 views

How does the Trump administrations “rate of attrition” compare to past administrations? [duplicate]

There have been a number of high-profile firings / forced resignations / etc in recent years originating from the Trump administration. Some of these, such as John Bolton, have ended up as media ...
5
votes
2answers
266 views

Best metric for comparing poll queue times?

In the 2018 Midterms, some very determined Georgians waited over four hours in line to vote. Every two years there are precincts that torment voters with long lines, but never mind how or why... I'm ...
5
votes
1answer
122 views

What is an MRP poll, and is it more accurate than a conventional poll?

On Nov 27th, the polling company YouGov released an “MRP” poll that predicts the Conservative party winning a majority of 68 in the upcoming General Election. The poll has been treated as practically ...
5
votes
1answer
363 views

What percent of people killed by police in the US are unarmed?

The question title says it all. If possible, I'd prefer an answer that includes breakdowns by race, although I'm prepared to accept one that does not.
5
votes
1answer
133 views

Why is the USA so much more religious then other developed nations [duplicate]

The USA is an outlier in it's overall religiosity (ie percentage of citizens that consider religion a major factor in their lives) when it comes to developed & wealthy nations, being nearly twice ...
5
votes
1answer
281 views

What percentage of African-American Republicans are conservative?

I saw a Gallup article that says that 69% of Republicans overall identify as conservative. I am thinking about a small proportion of Republican voters which is a large proportion of Democratic voters: ...
5
votes
1answer
171 views

Are future people counted when considering how many people will be affected by a policy change?

When calculating the impact of policy, does the CBO/BLS/DHH or other government agency consider the number of future people who will be affected over the lifetime of the policy? Why/Why not? For ...
5
votes
0answers
67 views

What are the (bidirectional) flows of skilled workers between Australia and the UK, presently?

In relation to an Australian statement that there would be "brain drain" from Australia to the UK should a visa-free worker system be adopted between the two countries... Surely, both Australia and ...
5
votes
0answers
51 views

Resource providing statistical data on the amount of law enacted?

Is there any statistical data about the amount of law enacted in the United States? For example, it would be very interesting to see how the number of laws over time has changed, how many laws there ...
4
votes
1answer
142 views

How are deaths recorded and reported in the US?

The current COVID-19 pandemic made me curious how deaths are counted by various governments at all levels. As there is a lot of doubt as to how the cause of death is attributed in various cases, I was ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

Are capitalism and communism equivalent in attributable mass murders? [closed]

When the topic of communism comes up in the US, most automatically dismiss it due to the tens or hundreds of millions who died at the hands of communist regimes. As a counterpoint, some say that the ...
4
votes
1answer
53 views

Are there some statistics on the political affiliation of NESBs?

Non-English speaking background (NESB) is a demographic category often encountered in Australian publications. Are there statistics on the political party affiliation of NESBs (membership or just whom ...
4
votes
1answer
3k views

Percentage of European terrorists who are refugees

What percentage of terrorists in the recent attacks in Europe have ever held the refugee immigration status in any EU country? I am primarily interested in the data for the last 3 years or so. Any ...
4
votes
2answers
56 views

Limit to utility of campaign funds

I'm looking for research on the utility of campaign money, specifically in USA elections. Is there a point at which more money doesn't significantly increase a candidates chance of winning? How would ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views

What are the statistics for mass shootings by skin color?

Someone told me that people of a certain skin tone commit mass shootings, but I was skeptical. By the way, a popular definition of mass shooting is 4 or more people killed by a gun. https://en....
4
votes
1answer
177 views

What is the death toll of war on drugs compared to death toll from drugs? [closed]

It is not obvious how successful the war on drugs is, in part because it is not clear what success is. Drugs cause deaths, and the war on drugs causes deaths. One possible metric is how many people ...
4
votes
0answers
241 views

Which EU country has the most violent police force?

I hope this is the right sub to post this in. I am looking for a peer-reviewed study which compares the number of violent incidences committed by police officers against civilians in different EU ...
4
votes
0answers
30 views

Quantification of media interest in particular political subjects

I know there is a field of quantitative political science, but I am wondering if there are any commercial or quasi-commercial (amateur) efforts to just tally up how many articles or notices are ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

Statistical impact of Russian Hack in US election 2016

What do Silver (538) and Gelman models tell us about the impact on vote share of the Russian hacking of Democrats and the FBI intervention in the US election? If we took the prediction at the time and ...
3
votes
1answer
629 views

Is there a ranking of states population density based on usable land area?

Population density statistics can often be misleading. For example the Netherlands are considered to be one of the world's densest countries, but the explanation is that essentially 100% (and even ...