8

On your chief assumption of the Brexit party becoming a major party: If Brexit does not happen, they keep the name until it does happen, or the topic loses steam politically. If there is some kind of deal that effectively only takes the UK out in name only, but leaves all of the legal ties and responsibilities in place, the party keeps its name until a ...


8

Somehow I missed this news yesterday. Farage was interviewed by the BBC. He basically publicly invited Johnson to (coalition, presumably) talks... Farage said that Johnson "cannot win an election, whenever it comes, if the Brexit Party stands against him." Interestingly, Farage also said he had no conversation with Johnson since the latter became PM. He ...


8

There are several questions here... By winning this can they [Brexit Party] have a significant impact on Brexit? No, in that they're not in power; but also yes, because they won the EU election in the UK. In the process, unhappy Tory voters have sent a rather clear message to their MPs that they'd like them to get on with Brexit and move on to other ...


8

To summarize what I wrote in several comments... The least controversial conclusion about this election was that both Labour and the Conservatives got punished at the polls. Labor lost half their (MEP) seats, i.e. went from 20 to 10. The Conservatives lost even more, 15 seats, being left with just 4; their worst ever EU-election results. So clearly these ...


7

There is no official definiton for "dominate." Using that word, especially in a media context, is a value judgement. One could easily say that the party with the largest single vote count "dominated" the election. That's Brexit. One could easily say that the party with the largest single number of seats "dominated" the election. That's Brexit. One could ...


6

As far as UKIP is concerned, their performance in the European elections consistently outperformed their performance in General Elections from about 1999 till 2015. After which, their vote collapsed in both. On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives and Labour have tended to do a bit worse (with occasional exceptions) in the European ...


5

The true answer is that we won't know for sure because we can't know how many people in those constituencies would have voted for the Brexit Party. I'm sure someone has done a more rigorous analysis based on polling and demographic data. I'll show one estimate. The Brexit Party contested 275 seats and got 644,257 votes for an average of 2342 votes. If we ...


4

Is it true that British voters are more likely to back the main parties in general elections than in European Parliament elections? [...] Why are British voters more likely to back the main parties in general elections than in European Parliament elections? I suspect more specific analyses exist on British elections, but the general theory is that EU ...


4

This has not always been the case. Throughout the 1980s, the share of voters voting for the two main parties was consistent between general elections and European elections. 1999 was the first year that elections to the European Parliament in Great Britain used proportional representation, and it was in the subsequent election in 2004 that the vote share ...


4

Of course the Brexit party is "unpopular" with the existing parties. It isn't their party In any electoral situation, parties go against each other and the Brexit party is no different The Brexit party does not represent an existential threat to the other parties. It could alter the outcome but there are several reasons why it will find it difficult to ...


3

As reported here https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/nigel-farage-brexit-party-no-deal-commons-vote-boris-johnson-video/ just a few days ago, Nigel Farage has said that if Boris is backing a "no deal" then the Brexit party will not stand against the Conservatives


3

(...explicitly pro-remain parties (Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP, Change UK). The biggest logical problem with this assessment is that these parties exist outside of the context of Brexit. These parties were going to get votes no matter what, even if the topic of Brexit never existed and the phrase hadn't ever been coined. They might have (in that alternate ...


3

On December 8th 2019, Farage said in an interview with Sky News that after the UK leaves the European Union (as occurred on the 31st January 2020), the Brexit Party would change its name to the 'Reform Party', and would campaign "for changes to the voting system and the abolition of the House of Lords". In the same interview, he said that he had already ...


2

Avoid calling an early general election (i.e. before 2022). This would completely neutralize the current activites of the Brexit Party which are concentrated on mobilizing prospective MPs for all parliamentary constituencies Firstly, this is only a delaying action; they're not going to go away by 2022 unless Brexit happens. Whether they would go away after ...


2

Is it true that British voters are more likely to back the main parties in general elections than in European Parliament elections? The reason is rather the voting system. In general elections it is a 'winner takes it all' for the seat. Voting for small parties are the 'lost votes', as they don't matter in the result. In European Parliament elections the ...


2

Perhaps try restating the thesis. Rather than Is it true that British voters are more likely to back the main parties in general elections than in European Parliament elections? Ask if it is more likely that the single issue parties with manifestos directly related to the question of a European government are more likely to do well in an election for ...


2

Is it true that British voters are more likely to back the main parties in general elections than in European Parliament elections? This can be hypothesised but it's hard to prove. In recent years, it seems at least as likely (to me) that the swings in results of different elections are representative of actual swings in opinion in the country. This is hard ...


2

This hinges on the definition of dominate. From Cambridge Dictionary: dominate ‚Äčto be the largest, most important, or most noticeable part of something Since the Brexit party got the largest share of the vote, then yes, it is accurate to say they dominated the election.


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