67

So wouldn't it be smarter for Bloomberg to run as a Republican? No, for the simple reason that Donald Trump is incredibly popular with both the Republican Party and its voters. As of September 2019, Trump's approval rating among Republicans is 84%, and in the five Republican primaries run so far, he has earned 91.2% of the overall vote and all but one ...


65

Unfortunately, the answer is probably yes and no. Every state & territory has different rules & procedures governing who can appear on a ballot and how they qualify to be there. Some, if not most, states have "sore loser" laws that prevent a candidate who lost in a primary election from appearing on the ballot as an independent (or presumably the ...


65

Most likely it boils down to something he did that likely no other candidate did: pay attention to them The Bloomberg campaign said Monday it has seven full-time staff located in American Samoa. They are also running television ads, targeted radio ads and targeted digital and print ads across the islands, according to the campaign. That attention earned ...


45

No, she is not. In order to qualify as a superdelegate, you must be (in addition to being a Democrat) at least one of: A member of either house of the US Congress (including non-voting delegates) [Rule 9.A.3] A state governor, territorial governor, or Mayor of Washington DC An elected member of the Democratic National Committee [Rule 9.A.1] A "...


42

The simple answer is there was more competition. In 2016, it was mostly Sanders vs Clinton for the Democratic Primary. She had several potential scandals brewing (her private email server, questions about the Clinton Global Initiative, etc) and Sanders was the only outlet for people who did not want to see Clinton win. Sanders had plenty of healthy ...


41

No, on two counts First, if they were funded by reorganization of current government spending, reparations would legally be no different from any other government program that targets a group. This was established in Nixon v. Administrator of General Services, that a law burdening a group is not unconstitutional. However expansive is the prohibition against ...


41

FiveThirtyEight currently gives him a 3% chance of winning a majority of delegates (about as likely as Elizabeth Warren), and an 8% chance of winning a plurality (about as likely as Pete Buttigieg) so he seems to have at least some chance of becoming the nominee.1 His most plausible route to victory is managing to rally a group of delegates for other ...


32

The number of Declared Republican Candidates in 2016 was 17 according to Ballotpedia. Donald Trump and Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Scott Walker Also listed are another ...


28

It likely has something to do with who he was running against in 2016. It's hard to make a "head-to-head" comparison when the opposition was different.


26

F1Krazy's answer is very good and deserves its upvotes, but it does seem to miss the crux of your confusion. Your reasoning is Bloomberg's declared goal is to prevent Trump's reëlection. He could've run in either party's primary and Running in the Democratic primary leaves Trump assured of the Republican nomination and contributes ...


17

For what it's worth, Yang's [team] said “It’s something that has not been done before, so we relied heavily on our legal team, and we feel confident moving forward after talking to them about it,” says the aide to Yang’s campaign. “Our legal team has walked through all FEC compliance issues and given us the go [ahead].” Asked about the possible criticism of ...


17

In addition to the "sore loser" laws mentioned in the other answer, candidate filing deadlines rarely allow a candidate to do this. For example, the deadline for filing to run as an independent in Texas was Dec 9, months before the primary elections started. If Sanders tried to switch now, he wouldn't be able to put his name on the ballot. Some other ...


16

If you look at the date ranges on those "most recent polls" (at the time this question was asked) you will find that they almost all started before July 9th. The Hill/Harris X poll started July 12th. It includes Steyer (0%, rounded). The Economist/YouGov poll started July 14th. It includes Steyer (1%). The premise that Steyer is not included in polls that ...


16

There are more candidates at this point in the race, so votes are going to be more split. Expecting % differences to remain constant doesn't make much sense when at least 4 candidates got non-negligible support in most places. In Minnesota, an endorsement of one of Sanders' opponents by a popular senator and former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar, as ...


13

Prior to actually running, Hillary went around to all the potential candidates and asked them not to run. She arranged with the party funders and other influencers to get their support and endorsement. This kept potentially stronger candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden out of the race. Remember that Bernie Sanders originally ran less to win ...


13

Only two states have had voted (/whatever you want to call what happened in Iowa) so far. Bloomberg was not on those ballots because he did not file. According to wiki he announced on November 24, 2019. The filing deadline for some early states had passed- for example New Hampshire was November 12. Bloomberg did start some filings before he announced, to ...


11

I doubt that she knows of anything in particular that is problematic. The issue is that it is likely that if she released the transcripts, she would have said something, sometime that Republicans could criticize. Look at what happened in 2012 when a recording of Romney talking at a fundraiser was released. The 47% statement became a meme for the Obama ...


9

It depends how they do it. Some legal (although there may be other challenges for these) ways: Pass a law saying that descendants of slaves could sue descendants of slave owners. Then hold a trial or trials. Would have to be carefully worded to not be ex post facto banned. Raise a general tax and make a specific payment. So all races would pay a tax ...


9

The rules for being on the primary ballot vary from state to state. In South Carolina, the party reserves the right to deny ballot access to a candidate who has been a member of another party or may show disloyalty to the party. In New Hampshire, only a filing fee is sufficient to get on the ballot. As for getting the party's nomination, this is decided ...


9

Context for Minnesota's results Minnesota switched from a caucus in 2016 to a primary in 2020. Turnout increased from 200,000 votes to more than 700,000, so we can't say that Sanders lost his base of support from 2016 into 2020 (in fact, he got almost twice as many votes in 2020). One theory is that Sanders has a "more enthusiastic" base, and ...


8

No primary results will be released before polls close on Super Tuesday. Under Chapter 65.015(a) of the Texas Election Code (emphasis mine): Subject to Subsection (b), after the polls close and the last voter has voted, the presiding judge may announce the status of the vote count from time to time.


7

No probably not illegal. Andrew Yang is actually an independently wealthy guy. He can probably just finance it himself, without ever using his campaign funds. The idea is so next level that I don't think it has ever been contemplated, and therefore is unlikely to be prohibited by law.


6

Real Clear Politics is only listing thirteen of the twenty odd major candidates in their interface. Presumably this is because they lack the horizontal room on the page to show more. This leaves off eight of the candidates who made it to the first debate. If you look down further, the graph shows twenty candidates and Tom Steyer is included there (he ...


6

So long as it is not financed by campaign donations and is not tied to any specific voting requirement, it doesn't seem to violate any laws. Vote Buying: Buying votes is illegal. However, the wording on it is that one may not pay someone "either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate". So long as the funds are not issued on ...


6

Since no reparations proposal requires anyone to be disenfranchised, whipped, branded, imprisoned, or executed... it's not clear in what sense, (if any), "punishment" might be construed as occurring in the event of reparations. If one of the premises of this question is the exotic notion that all taxation is "punishment", this should be clearly stated in the ...


6

President Trump is, by comparison with other presidents, unpopular. He has approval ratings of around 40%, and not much variation. This means that he is seen as "beatable" and so this is a real chance for whoever wins the nomination to become president. And since many Presidents will hold office for 8 years, followed by either a change of government, or ...


6

Because there is no dominant candidate. That encourages a lot of people to try to get in on the race, and get some national exposure. For example, in 2016, Hillary Clinton had the full support of the DNC, who actively (and surreptitiously) discouraged other candidates. There was that one pesky upstart who just wouldn't quit, but the other mainstream choices ...


6

Probably the most realistic chance (or more reasonably, least unrealistic) is for the "powers that be" in the DNC to manipulate the convention. Suppose that there is a strong current of dislike for the front-runner at the convention. For example, maybe it's Sanders, and people think he's too socialist to win. They may think that their best shot at ...


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