109

No such guarantee would be meaningful if the US administration and congress change their opinion. Whatever they write in law or sign, they can undo -- if not legally then in practice. The US had ratified a treaty with Panama about who had control over which part of the Canal zone, yet they deposed Noriega. The US had given security guarantees to Ukraine ...


71

For many countries, the decision to allow visa free travel is based on the likelihood of abuse of the immigration system. In the case of Mauritius, the judgement is that Mauritian citizens do not represent a significant risk of overstaying. Mauritius has a stable democratic government and a successful economy, so Mauritian citizens are happy to return home. ...


45

The U.S. is likely to become less involved in the Middle East and Asia. Japan will need to secure oil supplies. Peter Zeihan has given many speeches over the last decade about how demographics and fracking affect geopolitics. Many of these speeches are on YouTube. In these speeches, he argues: The U.S. established a world order in 1945. The U.S. paid ...


45

It isn't usual, but it happens, especially when the leaving administration doesn't see eye to eye with the following administration. The last time this occurred was only just 4 years ago when President Obama fired a parting shot at Netanyahu (and Trump) by abstaining from blocking a U.N. resolution that condemned Israeli settlement plans, allowing it to pass....


43

There are multiple reasons, both tactical and strategic. The main ones are: Geopolitics. Basically, Russia has no natural defensive perimeter of its core. Thus, its permanent strategy is to surround itself with satellite states which provide defense in depth and natural defensive perimeters of their own. This is elaborated extensively on in Statfor ...


31

China is unlikely to listen to an ICJ ruling, so it carries risk for Japan if China wins and no gain if Japan wins. From the Spratleys, where the Phillipines brought the case, to the ICJ (aka Hague Tribunal) in 2016, and won against China: Beijing has criticised an international court’s stinging rejection of its territorial claims in the South China Sea, ...


30

I would summarize it the following way. Basically, Prometheism. Prometheism is an anti-Russian ideology invented in Poland during the 1910s and whose aim was the disintegration of the Russian Empire and, later, the Soviet Union. The Poles aimed to help any separatist movements inside Russia and to support anti-Russian attitude among Russian neighbours. ...


30

The reasons to contest land vary greatly, and one or more can be applicable in any given situation. Some land has strategic value. High ground, forward staging area, airplane landing ground, fleet base/port. Examples include Gibraltar, or Golan Heights, or Philippines. Falkand Islands were Royal Navy base in WWI and WWII. Crimea has Sevastopol. This gets ...


27

Part of the issue with answering this question is defining what counts as a foreign intervention. The Congressional Research Service has published a report entitled Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2020, which is an attempt to "provide a rough survey of past U.S. military ventures abroad". However, it is questionable ...


24

The point of sanctions isn't necessarily, or always, "to prevent" the things the sanctions are based on. More often than not, they can serve at least three other purposes: They are a necessary step to show that you're trying to resolve the situation peacefully. This way, if a military intervention happens later, the opponents (domestic or international) ...


24

The major misconception here is that, from the information I've been able to gather, the US was never formally at war with North Korea. It and the United Nations intervened in the Korean War on South Korea's behalf, to prevent the North from wiping it off the map. There is therefore no need for the US to sign a peace treaty with North Korea because a state ...


23

The premise of this question is questionable. The Mauritian passport is not especially strong. The Wikipedia article quoted in the question is citing the Henley and Partners Visa Restrictions Index 2017 (PDF). While this is a reputable source, it uses consecutive numbers for rankings, even if many countries tied at previous ranking levels. It does indeed ...


22

There were many preexisting diverging views on international law. The open disagreements about e.g. the NATO intervention in Kosovo don't constitute the main problem, because in such a case the disagreement is made explicit, everyone knows what the differing views are, problems can then be prevented. The main issue are the many cases where Russia believes ...


20

The American electorate is extremely divided over ideological lines at the moment. During the Cold War there were still divisions, but we could generally all agree that Americans were always better to deal with than the Soviets. Now that is not the case. A substantial portion of the President's base aren't at all upset (in some instances even gleeful) that ...


20

There's nothing in the treaty that prevents Turkey from doing what it's doing. First and foremost, NATO is a defense alliance that's aimed at attacks against its member states. While the Kurds in Syria are an ad-hoc ally of some NATO members, Turkey views them as enemies. Allies of NATO members are not protected by NATO, so there is no article 5 obligation ...


19

The most accurate answer would be: they do, despite they are not obliged to. The text of Budapest Memorandum says: The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a ...


18

Why didn't the USA (west) take measures to stop China from became the new superpower while they can? Because, as your own subsequent question points out, China is (or, at least, in 1950s, was) a more acceptable superpower, unlike Russia; or for that matter a lot further from becoming a superpower, acceptable or not. Why is the US so aggressive against ...


18

I found this comment to be insightful But the House of Saud always had an almost literal killer counterargument, that they were probably better than any regime that would replace them. Often the world of foreign policy gives you no good options, just lots of variously bad ones. Accepting the Saudis’ help where they offered, and trying to gently nudge them ...


17

Yes, such guarantees are called Mutually Assured Destruction. As long as a country can reasonably presume that an attack on foreign territory will result in severe annihilation of their own civilian population, they will do everything in their power to prevent such a conflict. As an example - the US never went into a direct war against the USSR and is ...


16

As mentioned in comments, that is South Ossetia. Below is an image from Wikipedia of a map: Basically, South Ossetia declared independence from the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic (known as Georgia today) in 1991. Currently, only 4 UN member states recognise South Ossetia, namely Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Nauru.


16

Sure. Everyone gets a perspective, so if, to you, that constitutes political censorship, then I can see how that argument gets made. But the flip side of that argument is true also. If the majority of those 200,000 accounts were bots meant to stifle speech from their political opponents, then the argument can be made that Twitter is trying to do something ...


16

This article in the Center for Strategic and International Studies appear to answer your questions: Japan’s Position Japan’s position on the Senkaku Islands is clear. Japan took measures to incorporate the islands in January 1895 after having carefully surveyed and determined that the islands had been terra nullius (no man’s land). Ever since, the Senkaku ...


15

Summary: The claims Anixx makes about this film presents a completely false version of the events of the colour-revolutions. This version of events is also completely different from the version of events presented by the French documentary. I've looked at some of the detailed claims you make based on the Russian version. It shows US intelligence officer'...


15

Why do you think they can or ever could? China has four times more population, vast natural resources, venerable ancient culture, and the Chinese are in no way less intelligent, resourceful or determined than Americans. The only way to stop China from realizing its human potential is to constantly create havoc and misery for them, preventing them from ...


15

Abe visiting Iran is not necessarily a sign that Japan is working against the United States. For all we know, the Donald Trump administration asked Abe to negotiate with Iran on their behalf. Think Progress: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Iran on Wednesday marks the first time a leader from Japan has gone to Iran since the 1979 ...


14

First, all major geopolitical players plan for different possible scenarios. There would be nothing strange or aggressive in itself if Russia had plans to invade and support uprisings in Donbass and Crimea. I recall hearing about the US having plans for invasion of my own country (Sweden), you can't just stand there without a plan if an unlikely series of ...


14

This is a pretty broad question. If we ask more pointedly why Obama didn't intervene more in Ukraine... He told us that himself. As Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic’s editor in chief, wrote in the Obama Doctrine: “Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory ...


14

This list omits a lot of less known foreign conflicts. Looking at the list of wars involving the United States on Wikipedia, we find a lot more. Let's start with the second World War, as WWII really marks the start of US military involvement in geopolitics. World War II - US engagement started under Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem) Korean War - Harry S. Truman (...


14

The Trump administration's (TA) use of the lame-duck period, as far as I can tell, is completely unprecedented in US politics. Other presidents have acted in ways that were arguably quite harmful to the country, but it was by doing nothing. The key examples would be the Herbert Hoover (doing nothing as the economy crashed) and James Buchanan (doing nothing ...


13

That is not the generally accepted meaning of a proxy war, where one country uses surrogate forces to fight another. For example, North Vietnam was a proxy for Soviet-bloc aggression against US interests. While Afghanistan saw the US back the Mujahideen to serve as proxies to hurt the USSR. If Turkey was a close German ally (it is not) and if the Kurds were ...


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