Hot answers tagged

82

One purpose of the type of poll that you linked to is to develop a list of potential donors and campaign volunteers and supporters. The one-sided nature of the poll language serves to a) motivate the potential reader to respond and b) screen out anyone likely to disagree or be disinterested. Since the poll form then asks the submitter to include their name, ...


76

It was discussed in the discussion on one of the online petitions. The standard Tory line against it is: 17.4 million people voted to leave. After that, 499 Members of Parliament voted in favour of invoking article 50, and 122 voted against But Brexit, as currently being operated, is not a public-driven process. Even if it was, making it opinion-poll-...


57

Fully-specified polls are perfectly trustworthy in terms of what polls actually indicate. Their topline results are not very reliable. Most people think of polls in various incorrect ways. The most common (and least meaningful) way is as a straight prediction of how people will vote on election day. Polls almost never try to indicate this. Even when hacks ...


37

I tend to group polls into one of two types: scientific polls that intend to reflect accurately what the population or whichever subgroup it is interested in thinks/believes/desires/knows proof-of-myself polls that intend to show support for whatever my political/sales/religious message is. Of course, they are sometimes hard to distinguish but a lot of ...


34

There is no strong evidence that UK politicians are ignoring opinion polls. There is some evidence that the information in the opinion polls is more subtle than what's expressed in the headline figures. Consider this Survation poll for the Daily Mail, with fieldwork conducted on the 15th March 2019. The headline question is Imagine there was a referendum ...


30

Don't mistake polled sentiments for election results. In all likelihood, the next presidential election in the US will be decided by a few swing states. It will not matter how much the Democrats win in a deep blue state. It will not matter how much the Republicans win in a deep red state. All that matters is who wins states like Florida, Ohio, or Virginia (...


29

One term for this effect is "Social Desirability bias" Social desirability bias is a social science research term that describes the tendency of survey respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. It can take the form of over-reporting "good behavior" or under-reporting "bad", or undesirable behavior. The tendency ...


27

The survey/poll participants not being all equally likely to answer is a well-known problem called participation bias aka non-response bias. A typical example: A study of nonrespondents from the National AIDS Behavioral Survey (NABS) was conducted in 1990 to attempt to identify potential differences in participants and non‐participants that may influence ...


23

The answer is slightly different for each of the two main parties (Labour and Tories) but boils down to trying to upset as few people as possible with an eye on the next general election. Consider the ramifications of changing their policy from delivering brexit to cancelling it. That would certainly annoy many millions of leave voters. On the other hand ...


21

Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight has been collating and adjusting all of the polls related to both starting the impeachment query and conviction. Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo As you can see support for impeachment was unaffected by the years long Russia gate scandal, but the Ukraine scandal caused ...


20

Depending on how you became aware of the poll, this may be an example of a push poll. This is a poll where there is no intention of doing anything useful with the results, but where the true goal of the poll is to influence people by asking them loaded questions. A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political ...


18

In practical and on principle, being a slave to the polls is a bad idea. The politicians who favour remaining in the EU ignored the polls from the 1970s to 2015 that have shown sometimes wide margins in favour of leaving. Arguing that something is right because a fickle public are currently in favour of it is politically risky, as it seems certain that the ...


17

Essentially, the key is to select a good random sample. In general, the sample is accurate to half of the square root of the number of people who are asked. Given the standard number of 1000 people, that means that the number should be accurate to within 17 people or so. Divide by the original 1000 people in half, and taking 17/500, and you have the ...


16

If you look at the date ranges on those "most recent polls" (at the time this question was asked) you will find that they almost all started before July 9th. The Hill/Harris X poll started July 12th. It includes Steyer (0%, rounded). The Economist/YouGov poll started July 14th. It includes Steyer (1%). The premise that Steyer is not included in polls that ...


15

In addition to the caveat about the Electoral College, polls can change pretty fast. Just on Oct 30, another predicted Trump would win the popular vote, against an unnamed Democratic nominee, by a narrow margin. Even more noteworthy, the subjects gave an even higher rating to Trump's chance of actually winning the race (probably because people are aware of ...


14

As far as I can tell, this information does not actually exist in the form that the question requests. However, an analysis of the demographics of the group in question can lead to some reasonable conclusions. In general, the 47% are chiefly made up of two groups of people: the poor and the elderly. First, lets look at the poor: According to the Tax ...


11

More than one press article attributed the October jump (e.g. as seen in in SurpriseDog's answer from cumulative 538 data) to have been caused by independents, e.g. as Reuters reported on Oct 23: Support for impeachment was relatively steady among Republicans and Democrats over the past week but it surged among independents, a group that includes people ...


10

Verdant Labs has data on the political leanings sorted by profession, based on campaign contributions. For software engineers: For other IT professions: Others have similar data based on campaign contributions (eg Business Insider). I would prefer polls asking the actual political leanings based on professions, but I couldn't find any data on that.


10

Defining an opinion poll as "an assessment of public opinion obtained by questioning a representative sample," the answer to your question is no. Opinion polls are not always overly representative of extreme opinions. If you were to poll 20 people in your company (selected randomly) and they all respond, your poll would not be overly representative of ...


10

What's going on is that there are two weekly polls of the Democratic race, one by Politico/Morning Consult and one by Economist/YouGov. The Economist/YouGov poll shows consistently lower support for Biden than other polls of the race. YouGov's last six polls found Biden's support at 25, 26, 25, 25, 22, and 23. By contrast, the last six Morning Consult polls ...


9

This applies to all UK elections. The Representation of the People Act 2002 inserted a section 66A into the initial 1983 of the same name and this read as follows. It is a criminal offence ‘to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to ...


9

There are two aspects to this. The first - Did the votes cast for Perot on Election Day swing the results? The answer appears, as mentioned in the Wikipedia article cited by OP, and in the video and podcast from Five Thirty-Eight linked in the comments by Bobson, to be "no." Five Thirty-Eight is generally known for their very analytical approach to ...


9

The recent raise in SPD poll results correlates very obviously with their nomination of Martin Schulz as their chancellor candidate for the election this summer. I am not implying that correlation generally implies causation, but in this case it is extremely obvious. Before that nomination, the general assumption was that party leader Sigmar Gabriel would ...


9

I would imagine that its because that's not how democracy works. In your standard democratic vote, everyone chooses, in good faith, a decision that they believe to be best. If then the votes result does not swing your way, you are unfortunately restricted by the democratic element of the vote to honour it anyways. Therefore, when the governing body sees a ...


8

In 2012, Mitt Romney ran for president. He is a practicing Mormon and his family has a long history in the faith. He received an unusually high percentage of the vote in Utah, which is the most Mormon state in the nation. Mormons have a relatively strict faith. For example, they frown on recreational alcohol use and gambling. They also have very ...


8

Unfortunately few places are as heavily polled as the US, so I've not been able to find a lot of data for Japanese opinion of article 9, but I have found a few. The results I have found appear to be mixed. From a 2014 article (emphasis mine): This policy is not intended to do away with postwar Japanese pacifism. The word “pacifism” is not included in ...


8

Since you want this answered as close to the referendum date as possible, I did find one survey by What UK Thinks from the autumn of 2016 (the Referendum was held in July). It is pretty elaborate, so I suggest you read it all for the details, but its summary findings were: Nine in ten people would like free trade with EU countries to continue. But at ...


8

FiveThirtyEight wrote an article on this just last week: Why Americans Might Be Convinced To Support A War With Iran. In the article, they report on several polls that ask about a potential conflict with Iran in different ways. To start, they report on a SurveyMonkey poll which finds very low support for intervention in response to the attack on Saudi oil ...


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