Hot answers tagged

81

One purpose of the type of poll that you linked to is to develop a list of potential donors and campaign volunteers and supporters. The one-sided nature of the poll language serves to a) motivate the potential reader to respond and b) screen out anyone likely to disagree or be disinterested. Since the poll form then asks the submitter to include their name, ...


76

It was discussed in the discussion on one of the online petitions. The standard Tory line against it is: 17.4 million people voted to leave. After that, 499 Members of Parliament voted in favour of invoking article 50, and 122 voted against But Brexit, as currently being operated, is not a public-driven process. Even if it was, making it opinion-poll-...


73

The key assumption you have made is assuming people in the US act sensibly, and that they would base their answer in the poll on facts. This assumption might not be accurate. A recent (Jan 2019) study shows that facts might not be too important in this matter [1]. Inaccurate views of scientific consensus and the willful rejection of scientific consensus. ...


56

Fully-specified polls are perfectly trustworthy in terms of what polls actually indicate. Their topline results are not very reliable. Most people think of polls in various incorrect ways. The most common (and least meaningful) way is as a straight prediction of how people will vote on election day. Polls almost never try to indicate this. Even when hacks ...


53

I'm not sure there's anything more than expert opinion as an answer: Levada sociologist Karina Pipiya told BBC Russian: "There is growing nostalgia for the Soviet period and Stalin as a leader. Stalin is seen as the main figure who defeated fascism, who gets the honours for victory in the Great Patriotic War. And that war victory is a symbol of national ...


52

It's hard to provide an objective answer since this is a question mostly about emotions and everyone has his anecdotes. Since pretty much all answers here do not have any citations or references, it's likely that they are all colored by subjective perception. I'll try to provide some objective data, though it will undoubtedly still be colored by my personal ...


42

The simple answer is there was more competition. In 2016, it was mostly Sanders vs Clinton for the Democratic Primary. She had several potential scandals brewing (her private email server, questions about the Clinton Global Initiative, etc) and Sanders was the only outlet for people who did not want to see Clinton win. Sanders had plenty of healthy ...


37

I tend to group polls into one of two types: scientific polls that intend to reflect accurately what the population or whichever subgroup it is interested in thinks/believes/desires/knows proof-of-myself polls that intend to show support for whatever my political/sales/religious message is. Of course, they are sometimes hard to distinguish but a lot of ...


34

There is no strong evidence that UK politicians are ignoring opinion polls. There is some evidence that the information in the opinion polls is more subtle than what's expressed in the headline figures. Consider this Survation poll for the Daily Mail, with fieldwork conducted on the 15th March 2019. The headline question is Imagine there was a referendum ...


31

Trump has never had better ratings - but that's not the whole story. This analysis from the CBC shows a fuller picture. Donald Trump has the highest approval ratings since the first few weeks of his presidency. a 47% approval rating However he has also had the lowest approval ratings of any president on average, never once having had an approval rate ...


30

Don't mistake polled sentiments for election results. In all likelihood, the next presidential election in the US will be decided by a few swing states. It will not matter how much the Democrats win in a deep blue state. It will not matter how much the Republicans win in a deep red state. All that matters is who wins states like Florida, Ohio, or Virginia (...


29

One term for this effect is "Social Desirability bias" Social desirability bias is a social science research term that describes the tendency of survey respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. It can take the form of over-reporting "good behavior" or under-reporting "bad", or undesirable behavior. The tendency ...


28

It likely has something to do with who he was running against in 2016. It's hard to make a "head-to-head" comparison when the opposition was different.


27

The survey/poll participants not being all equally likely to answer is a well-known problem called participation bias aka non-response bias. A typical example: A study of nonrespondents from the National AIDS Behavioral Survey (NABS) was conducted in 1990 to attempt to identify potential differences in participants and non‐participants that may influence ...


25

This is of course hardly detailed, but dislike for Trump abroad is well correlated to disliking his foreign policies. Germany polls pretty low on the latter too. Pew has actually asked more detailed questions regarding specific policies, but they have only posted a graph with world-aggregate numbers on those questions. They do have per-country data in a ...


25

According to US media, they're actually rising: Yet Trump’s approval ratings — an important gauge of his re-election chances a bit over seven months away — are staying strong, by some counts even reaching highs for his tenure. Though whether this has permanent effects in the long term and on Trump's popularity in the U.S. overall remains to be seen. A ...


24

Probably because his reign brought them into the position of 'world power'. The USSR may have fell apart, but that happened well after Stalin was no longer on charge. The USSR was a force to be reckoned with, but now, Russia has fallen off to the sidelines. They probably want their country to be the powerhouse it used to be. I'm not an expert, and this is ...


23

The answer is slightly different for each of the two main parties (Labour and Tories) but boils down to trying to upset as few people as possible with an eye on the next general election. Consider the ramifications of changing their policy from delivering brexit to cancelling it. That would certainly annoy many millions of leave voters. On the other hand ...


23

From the very same article you cited about the very same poll that showed that Trump’s approval is up by about 6 percentage points: Support for impeaching and removing the president has dipped slightly among independents, Gallup found, from 55 percent and 53 percent in two October polls to 48 percent in the latest survey. If you split the difference ...


21

Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight has been collating and adjusting all of the polls related to both starting the impeachment query and conviction. Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo As you can see support for impeachment was unaffected by the years long Russia gate scandal, but the Ukraine scandal caused ...


21

Is this data extrapolated from the corresponding number list? If so, how is anonymity maintained? Through convention. It is in fact possible to link an individual to their vote, it is simply against the law to do so except under authorisation from the Courts or Parliament. This is governed by the Representation of the People Act 1983 , which contains ...


21

Impeachment hasn't substantially improved Trump's approval rating. Approval rating fluctuates for every president, as it's based on (a tiny subset of) the people's opinion, so you have to get the average of not only multiple polls, but also across multiple measurements in time, to see if it's actually trending up and trending down. This is the historic ...


20

Depending on how you became aware of the poll, this may be an example of a push poll. This is a poll where there is no intention of doing anything useful with the results, but where the true goal of the poll is to influence people by asking them loaded questions. A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political ...


18

In practical and on principle, being a slave to the polls is a bad idea. The politicians who favour remaining in the EU ignored the polls from the 1970s to 2015 that have shown sometimes wide margins in favour of leaving. Arguing that something is right because a fickle public are currently in favour of it is politically risky, as it seems certain that the ...


18

You are coming at this from the wrong angle. Ask yourself: why do the French approve of Napoleon? They actually have extremely similar histories: A revolution happens, overthrowing the ancient monarchy -> in the course of it, some hick from a far-away mountain region of the empire, not of the native stock (Corsican/Georgian), seizes the reins of the ...


17

Essentially, the key is to select a good random sample. In general, the sample is accurate to half of the square root of the number of people who are asked. Given the standard number of 1000 people, that means that the number should be accurate to within 17 people or so. Divide by the original 1000 people in half, and taking 17/500, and you have the ...


16

If you look at the date ranges on those "most recent polls" (at the time this question was asked) you will find that they almost all started before July 9th. The Hill/Harris X poll started July 12th. It includes Steyer (0%, rounded). The Economist/YouGov poll started July 14th. It includes Steyer (1%). The premise that Steyer is not included in polls that ...


16

There are more candidates at this point in the race, so votes are going to be more split. Expecting % differences to remain constant doesn't make much sense when at least 4 candidates got non-negligible support in most places. In Minnesota, an endorsement of one of Sanders' opponents by a popular senator and former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar, as ...


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