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Polls can cause people to become complacent or fear the success of another party. I shall give an example. The polls before the 2017 UK general election predicted a huge win for the Conservatives. On the one hand it was thought some Conservaties felt there was no need to vote as they were likely to win anyway. On the other hand it galvanised the ...


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"Behavioral microtargeting with psychographic messaging" means that they are trying to develop political messaging tailored to individuals or uniform (like-minded) groups based on in-depth analysis of personal data scraped from Facebook and similar sites. This isn't about polling or advertising in any overt sense. The intent was to gather ...


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Yes. Exit polling is considered to be about as accurate as possible for election polls, under traditional circumstances. Whether that applies to the 2020 election cycle is certainly up for debate, give the large first-time shift towards greater mail-in voting. But under the more traditional circumstances: #1 - pre-election polls are about how people are ...


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TLDR: they estimate turnout rates using data from the British Election Study, which in some cases has validated vote records. The answer to your question is yes, at least for the 2017 election. From their article in the International Journal of Forecasting: For each application, we estimated the conditional probability of turnout p(T_i = 1|X_i) as a ...


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