131

Because polling data and Trump's approval rating do not tell the whole story. As right-wing political commentator Ben Shapiro is fond of saying, two things can be true at once: It's entirely possible to both despise President Trump's character, bombastic personality, and divisive rhetoric AND simultaneously appreciate what he has done and is trying to ...


112

Russian Hacks Technically, the US intelligence didn't claim that the Russians hacked the election itself. What they claimed was that the Russians ran a campaign to "undermine public faith in the US democratic process". They didn't hack into the voting machines to change the vote tallies and votes are still cast by Americans. Thus, the results are ...


105

Article 2, Section 2 of the Constitution begins: Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors... Until this section of the constitution is amended to read "Each State, Territory, or Federal District..." or to entirely rewrite the presidential election process to be based on citizenship of the ...


102

As of today (November 9th), the United States have not yet elected a president. They have elected an electoral college, which will elect a president on December 19th. Theoretically the electors could still change their mind and elect someone completely different. It is not unheard of that individual "faithless electors" vote different than mandated by the ...


94

It may seem like a tautology, but Trump is popular where he is popular. Such is the case with divisive figures. In order to remain in office, politicians in those areas where Trump is popular feel the need to heed the will of their own personal constiuency and embrace Trump. To be fair, an opinion I share is that some of the popularity that Trump receives ...


89

Most of them are just trying to gain national exposure and recognition. A highly-charged primary cycle is a perfect way to do it. Probably, one of the losing candidates will be offered the Vice-President nomination. Also, some of the other candidates may be offered Cabinet positions. Some other candidates will gain enourmous amounts of local recognition ...


88

I don't know the exact number but, as a proportion of the votes cast, it's essentially 100%. Here's how to calculate it. Find the set of states with the largest population of possible voters but no more than 268 electoral college votes. In all of those states, let candidate A win 100% of the vote, with 100% turnout. In every other state, have just one ...


85

The reason for the founding fathers to do this was in part because they viewed the President as supposed to be an elder statesman who had shown through his career to be reliable in his values and not prone to the changing whims of the public, as well as effectively lead the nation and represent a generally unifying acceptance of a large majority of people ...


81

CGP Grey has done the math in November 2011. In the extreme case, assuming a constant turnout across all 50 states (and with the electoral votes distributed as in 2011)*, it could take only 22% of the popular vote to win the electoral college. This is theoretically achievable by winning with a one-vote margin the states with the highest ratio of electoral ...


80

Reasonable theories I have heard have included: A change in polling foundations (home phones become cell phones = limitations on traditional cold calling... and also the shift into online polls). Plus perhaps the diminishing patience people have with enduring the polling process (I believe the percentage of people who agree to it has dropped consistently) ...


79

Answers to clarification questions There are no "rich people" forms. However, there are forms that are far more likely to be interesting when a rich person files them. For example, when someone claims charitable donations on Schedule A or 8283, they need to list the donations. He also has to write out what personal business related tax deductions he's ...


71

Two Minutes Hate People loved chanting "lock her up". So why should they stop? In some sense, that's why no effort has been made - actually locking up Clinton, or trying to, would detract from the purity of hating her and everything she represents. But what about Trump's supporters? They can see these things too I put it to you that they can't, ...


67

So wouldn't it be smarter for Bloomberg to run as a Republican? No, for the simple reason that Donald Trump is incredibly popular with both the Republican Party and its voters. As of September 2019, Trump's approval rating among Republicans is 84%, and in the five Republican primaries run so far, he has earned 91.2% of the overall vote and all but one ...


66

Answer: During an impeachment trial, the Senate can "disqualify" an officeholder from holding any public office again, but that is a separate vote from their "removal". Article 1, Section 3, Clause 7 of the Constitution says (emphasis mine): Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to ...


65

There are a couple of reasons why candidates do this. Firstly, because the Federal Election Commission only considers a campaign as "closed down" for good after a winding down process is complete; including the sale of campaign assets and the handling of debts. Not shutting down the campaign for good also allows campaigns to continue accepting money from ...


63

What would we do instead? Keep Barack Obama? There is zero provision in the United States for delaying the inauguration. In fact, it's not even clear that the inauguration is legally necessary. At noon on January 20th, 2017, Obama is out and a new president replaces him. There's a ceremony, but the constitution does not include any mention of it. The ...


61

"women don't deserve equal pay unless they do as good a job as men" "You're gonna make the same if you do as good a job." These statements are controversial because they are perceived to imply that the gender pay gap is entirely due to women doing less a good job than men. People who are critical of those statements might argue that many ...


59

To address the technical question, FEC will not function during shutdown: https://www.fec.gov/updates/shutdown-announcement-2018/. Like many federal agencies, the FEC will be unable to provide any services during the government shutdown. Most agency staff will not report to work, and the agency’s offices will be closed to the public. ... You will be ...


58

Because they can't credibly convert Trump supporters. The popular narrative is that Donald Trump's election represents some sort of "whitelash" against Democrats, Obama supporters, human decency, etc. But rich racist white people voted for Romney and McCain too. We just elected a liberal intellectual African American president. Twice. The people who voted ...


56

Fully-specified polls are perfectly trustworthy in terms of what polls actually indicate. Their topline results are not very reliable. Most people think of polls in various incorrect ways. The most common (and least meaningful) way is as a straight prediction of how people will vote on election day. Polls almost never try to indicate this. Even when hacks ...


55

At least in the case of Pete Buttigieg, his recent statements seem to make pretty clear that he's stopped to provide room for Biden to overtake Sanders. CNN coverage "When I ran for president we made it clear that the whole idea was about rallying the country together to defeat Donald Trump and to win the era for the values that we share," ...


53

First of all, there's a difference between recognizing that Crimea is a Russian territory and recognizing that Crimean residents are Russian citizens. Taking up the Russian citizenship was voluntary and the EU or the US cannot dictate whether or not a given person can become a Russian citizen by choice. There are still hundreds of thousands of dual Ukrainian-...


52

You are correct that "collusion" is being used very loosely. There is no specific federal criminal statute that outlaws "collusion", for example (except for an antitrust law not relevant here). This NYTimes editorial argues that the term is a problem: The problem is that the focus on the term “collusion” has had the effect of implying precision where ...


51

The age requirement for the president is part of the US Constitution and would require an amendment to pass. Article II Section 1: No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office ...


50

This is trivially untrue. I haven't researched the earliest peaceful transfer of power, but here's the wikipedia article for the UK general election of 1708. That was the first UK election following the union of England and Scotland and So not even the first peaceful transition of power in England. Which is almost 100 years earlier. I feel confident you ...


46

Two points: First is that the system of electoral college or first past the post (winner gets it all) magnifies the differences in the case of close calls. Had 80.000 votes change sides in Florida and 40.000 in Pennsylvania, and Hillary Clinton would be POTUS. Also, the electoral college system turns one very big poll into 51 smaller polls, each one ...


46

Yes - the official totals according to the FEC were: Trump - 62,984,828 (46.09% of all 136,669,276 votes) Clinton - 65,853,514 (48.18% of all 136,669,276 votes) So in terms of difference in popular vote percentage, this gives us your first figure, 2.09 points. However, in terms of the percentage of the votes given to either of the two main parties, this ...


45

There sure have been a few instances of this occurring. 2000 Election This's the one that many people still remember. Gore won the popular vote by 0.51% while Bush won the electoral college. The tight margin in Florida automatically triggered a recount. Ultimately, a court case stopped the recount and Bush became President. It has also occurred in the ...


44

The spin on Navalny For the question of why Navalny is labeled by western media as Putin's main opposition rival is an issue of framing. If you look at the two candidates who were ahead of Navalny last he was included in opinion polls on the link you provided - Zyuganov (now Grudinin) and Zhirinovsky, members of the Communist party and the populist-...


Only top voted, non community-wiki answers of a minimum length are eligible