New answers tagged

2

At this stage in the 2016 cycle, the RealClearPolitics polling average gave Clinton a lead of 5.4 points over Trump nationally. This compares to a Biden lead of 7.9 today. You would be right to say that it is not a certainty that Biden would win. Modelling done by FiveThirtyEight currently give Biden an 87% chance of winning the election, and Trump a 12% ...


10

The "land war in Asia" is a reference to the German invasion of Russia in World War II, and the French invasion of Russia during the Napoleonic Wars, and the Japanese invasion of China during World War II, and the American invasion of Vietnam, and the British invasions of Afghanistan during the 1800s, and... Asia is a sinkhole for invaders. What ...


30

First, the mandate to Donald Trump, granted in November, 2016 ends at Noon January 20, 2021. No need for him to do anything. The Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution deals with the situation where no person has yet qualified to be elected President for the term starting at 12:00:01 January 20, 2021: Section 3. If, at the time fixed for the beginning of ...


0

According to this 2016 article it's not prohibited by the federal government, but is prohibited by some state governments. Essentially it's the same protections as other characteristics such as race, gender, sexual orientation, etc. just with different states defining different characteristics. Incidentally I think this is one of the weird things that both ...


17

Yes, the Election Administration and Voting Survey - conducted biennially since 2004 by the Election Assistance Commission - collects this data. The 2016 report can be found here. In particular: Approximately 80.1 percent of absentee ballots that were transmitted to voters were returned and processed, with 1.4 percent of transmitted ballots returned as ...


2

TL;DR: No state that has allowed the people to vote for President and Vice President has ignored the popular vote in that state. There is a slight problem with electors who ignore the outcome of the popular vote in that state. The modern practice1, which has been adopted by all 50 states and the District of Columbia, is to delegate the selection of electors ...


4

They're a form of advertising. This is like asking why politicians do TV adverts, why they send out leaflets, why they produce Facebook ads, or anything else. Or for that matter why Coca-Cola does some of these things. Advertising changes people's behaviour, despite the difficulty of finding out which adverts effected a change for which people.


8

While political science has generally thought that yard signs do not have an effect on election results, there's at least one study (so NOT dispositive, because one scientific study does not "prove" anything) that says the effect is small. https://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/campaign-lawn-signs-little-effect-217166


4

Candidates do not operate in a vacuum. Candidate and their staffs are aware of the topics that are likely to be raised in a debate — whether or not those topics are announced in advance — and are also aware of the kinds of positions that their opponents are likely to take. Those wise enough to do debate prep will work out counter-arguments for what their ...


19

I'm sure you've heard the term 'political momentum'. That is really a misnomer: what people mean by 'momentum' is a kind of growing social pressure for the campaign and candidate that pushes the candidate into the public consciousness. Political signage (though it seems archaic) is an important part of this pressure. It has two advantages: It allows ...


7

Most candidates employ the practice of signage b/c they realize that some electors are swayed by the juvenile logic of popularity contests. As the argument goes, "if he/she is popular and hence likeable, he/she can't be that bad". It's really a practice that reflects the dumbing-down of an election. Moreover, the practice undermines the principle ...


3

There is another territory where the leader of the government does not take office until four months after the election! This is the government of Taiwan, which is constitutionally the Republic of China (whether it is China and/or Taiwan is a hotly disputed issue that is off-topic to this discussion). For example, the 2016 presidential election took place on ...


71

It firms up the base. If you are willing to put up a sign then you have "picked a side" and you are less likely to forget to vote. It helps canvassers. If you have a sign up, then canvassers know what to expect if they knock (This is a supporter, we only need to remind them to vote. This is an opposer, expect a hostile reception) It functions as a ...


24

Native Americans (like everyone else) register to vote in the state they are physically based in -- if they can provide an address, which can be difficult. Voter registration rules differ between states. Many Native Americans, especially those who live on reservations, do not have traditional street addresses. This has resulted in voter registration ...


10

Trump himself has stated on multiple occasions that the wall will be finished "very shortly", most recently in rallies in Michigan (10th Sep) & Nevada (12th & 13th Sep). For example: My administration has achieved the most secure border in American history. We ended catch and release. We stopped asylum fraud. We’ve deported 20,000 gang ...


6

The personality was Richard Spencer. His tweet Sunday: "I plan to vote for Biden and a straight democratic ticket. It's not based on 'accelerationism' or anything like that; the liberals are clearly more competent people." Biden's campaign almost immediately responded to that tweet with: "When Joe Biden says we are in a battle for the ...


3

SCOTUS actually commented on this recently in Chiafalo v. Washington (Pg 17, footnote 8) The Electors contend that elector discretion is needed to deal with the possibility that a future presidential candidate will die between Election Day and the Electoral College vote. We do not dismiss how much turmoil such an event could cause. In recognition of that ...


4

In the event of a Presidential candidate's death after the printing of ballots, would the Electors of certain states be able to vote at all? Yes, that votes must be made is mandatory (for both president and vice-president); however, given enough time, each affected state legislature could meet to override such a vote. Whether any such vote, or override of ...


5

They would have to vote as instructed by that state's supreme court, or the SCOTUS if it was appealled there and the SCOTUS decided it had jurisdiction. The likely set of events would be, for example "Biden wins AZ" Biden dies. The DNC announces that Harris is the new candidate. AZ electors vote for Harris. Now if the Republican party sues, then ...


11

The state would break the tie based on the rules it has setup for a tie vote and the winner of the tie breaker would get the votes. While the information I provided pertains to a legislative vote the general principle remains the same in that a winner has to be declared by breaking any ties. https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/resolving-...


5

Why not disconnect the other microphones? Cutting the microphone signal would stop the out-of-turn candidate(s) from being heard directly by the audience (though they may still be heard coming through various other microphones on the stage). This would not prevent the other debate participants from hearing the voice of the person interrupting. Turning off ...


4

TL;DR Party elections would be held to select new candidate(s). Plus, election could be delayed by Congress (specially if both main candidates drop out). Here is an article exploring the case of President Trump or Biden dying of Covid-19 from the point of view of two experts. It says: Dr Richard H. Pildes, professor of Constitutional Law at New York ...


4

I did find this information: If a candidate dies before the general election but after they've secured their party's nomination, it's a relatively simple fix: The deceased candidate's party picks a replacement (who may or may not be the vice presidential candidate from the ticket), and that replacement is on the ballot on Election Day. Both the Republican ...


2

Politics in the USA have become extremely polarized along ideological lines. This is at least partly a result of the rise of the power of social media, but I won't go into that. Because of the polarization, there is a lot of disinformation around and as a result a huge lack of trust in general: in politics, in the media, and everything else. For that ...


6

Ideally, they would be respectful and mature enough that such measures would not be needed. Preferably, there would be precedent for polite, constructive argument exclusively on your turn to be the norm, and a certain amount of shame would be placed upon people who break that precedent. It is debatable whether such precedent exists, and given how the senate ...


51

The debate rules are agreed by the candidates. If a candidate won't consent to giving the moderator an off-switch for his microphone, then it won't happen.


68

It's been done before. It comes off as unfair. Generally the Commission on Presidential Debates tries to keep impartiality, and turning off a candidate's microphone looks like you're favoring their opponent. Not that this would necessarily hurt the person whose microphone was turned off. In Reagan's case, this actually helped him and was even credited by ...


101

Just a theory: previous Presidential debates were conducted with greater civility, and that civility functioned as a sort of automatic inner software mute switch that was already installed (via education) in the conscience of each candidate. There were occasional interjections now and then, but not enough to impede the general flow of the Presidential ...


34

People don't want to see a series of speeches, because yawn. They want debate. They want the cut and thrust, and that means interjections and interruptions. They want to see the politicians being challenged by each other, to see the candidates remain calm under fire. They also want the candidates to have the ability to fail by making too many unnecessary ...


1

Presidential elections are governed by Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution as amended, which states in the pertinent part (prior to amendment): The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, ...


-1

Simple summary Whoever wins the Electoral College is president unless the vote tally is challenged If the tally is challenged, then the tally after the court decision decides the winner If the courts have not changed the tally (eg lower courts did not and supreme court is tied or doesn't overturn the decision) then the winner is president If the tally is ...


0

To add to the other answers: Leaving the supreme court seat open would just as well give the democratic base a firmer reason to show up by raising the stakes. Filling it surely angers and motivates them as well, but arguably not as much as the prospect of an open supreme court seat, beside the fact that it would be a far to risky gamble anyway.


4

Premise: Older Democratic candidates are favored, as they have a larger voter and political base that is likely to support them, when compared to younger candidates. Evidence: Both Wikipedia and the United States Elections Project state that voters who are above 60 have higher attendance at elections (more than 60% attendance vs only 40% at most for 18-24 ...


0

Yes, the need to appoint conservative supreme justices won't be over just because he gets a new one before the election. There are still several justices who are getting up in age in length of service on the court. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States Clarence Tomas: 72 with 29 years of service appointed by Bush in 91 Stephen ...


1

A. It wasn't just the Supreme Court, but the other federal courts as well. Those will continue to be relevant. B. There aren't any obvious SCOTUS vacancies in the next four years, but there could be. (Perhaps Thomas retires.) C. While unlikely, Trump could prevent court packing schemes. Though the odds Trump wins the White House and the Republicans lose the ...


1

I attempted to construct a scenario where election law breaks down because the supreme court can't issue a ruling. Normally, the result would be either the lower court stands or status quo ante; but we can avoid these cases. If we have a broad-scope issue on a presidential election, so that two cases can begin at the same time in different appellate circuits,...


0

A. The Constitution requires the President and Vice President take office on January 20 (used to be March 4). If that doesn't happen, it's a "constitutional crisis" and we're outside the bounds of prescribed law. As you mention, this could be a tight deadline for disputed elections. B. Within certain parameters, states fully control the selection ...


12

No. However no one ever asked that question until 2016 (EDIT: for a sitting president, 2020), so the available sample size of sitting Presidents' intentions is essentially one. And while a sitting President has never done so, there have been a number of Presidential hopefuls or their supporters that have disparaged or at least contested results. 1824 In ...


4

In addition to what Joe W said, it's possible that it's not just poor sample selection. Online polling, especially on Twitter, is extremely easy to sabotage. Many votes are likely cast by bots or people with multiple accounts. In addition, neither bots nor people with multiple accounts are likely to post comments. It's not just selection bias, but ...


5

This is just a random twitter poll where anyone can vote regardless of being able to vote regardless of their actual voting status for the election. There is nothing that stops anyone from voting especially bots and the voters are all self selected which means the votes are not reliable. The other poll you mentioned has procedures in place to make sure they ...


3

The word you're looking for is Faithless Electors. As far as I know, what you describe has never happened. To be clear, I mean that faithless electors changing the outcome of an election, not faithless electors in general. According to Wikipedia, there has been only 165 faithless electors total in the history of the United States: Over 58 elections, 165 ...


0

What happens if presidential elections were not fair (in some states)? GovTrack, in response to, “He commits to a peaceful transfer, as long as it’s a fair election.” — Mark Meadows, chief of staff to President Trump and former representative, on the end of President Trump’s term as president. Sep 25, 2020 opines that, The United States Constitution does ...


2

In a nightmare scenario where the popular vote cannot be certified or cannot be certified in time, the realistic option would be for the state legislature to appoint a slate of Electoral College delegates instead. The date the Electoral College meets (December 14 this year) is specified by Federal law so that cannot realistically be moved. Federal law sets ...


56

Most cases never go straight to the Supreme Court; it only has original jurisdiction over a very small subset of cases, as described in the US Constitution. Outside of those areas, they are always heard by at least one other court first before being appealed to the Supreme Court. If there is a tie in the Supreme Court, the ruling of the lower court stands, ...


22

The decision of the lower court stands. The Supreme court acts as the final court of appeal in such matters (it is not a dispute between states, for example). Therefore a lower court will already have made a judgement, and it is has been appealed to the Supreme court. For the appeal to succeed, there must be a majority in the court. If the court splits 4-...


9

No, the one vote per state rule comes from the 12th Amendment and could only be replaced or superseded by a new constitutional Amendment. See the bolded portion of the Amendment below: ... if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of ...


4

The bottom line is that a campaign is going to highlight an issue if they think it will resonate. Trump clearly believes this one does. The question then becomes: why might he think that? Biden has scaled back his public appearances to limit gaffes, and the article says that Democrat donors are concerned that he has "lost his mojo". This has ...


5

An executive order isn't that complicated: it's basically just the president telling people to do something. Executive orders are simply presidential directives issued to agents of the executive department by its boss. Brian R. Dirck (2007). The Executive Branch of Federal Government: People, Process, and Politics, p.102 So could the President issue an ...


4

First, a lawsuit alleging some violation of a federal election law or the constitution would have to be brought in a state or federal court with jurisdiction over the state in which an irregularity was alleged. This is because the U.S. Supreme Court does not have jurisdiction to review questions of state law. Then, that case would be appealed from the trial ...


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