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6

Cutting Social Security checks is political suicide for any party or politician. Cutting it to give a bailout to companies like Boeing is doubly so. Many people that receive Social Security rely on it to survive themselves, so cutting it would cause damage to the economy while trying to help the economy. Those receiving Social Security are by far the most ...


2

The most obvious reason to postpone (and why it is allowed to break the rules) is the current Corona crisis. Although it is estimated to be handled before May is over there is no certainty of it. So this definitely falls under a form of special circumstances (Entire countries are currently on lock down). So it is better to plan ahead in a what more distant ...


1

A candidate with even a moderate level of voter support can use that support to bargain for a better position. Cabinet position, for example. The candidate can use the national exposure to advance the message that their supporters believe in, and get that worked into the party's platform. Or, they can use the national exposure to get name recognition for ...


2

Probably not. The primaries are not under Federal jurisdiction (and in some states, they're actually run by the party and not the state). In practical terms, the Trump line continues to be everything's fine and we'll be back to normal soon so it's hard to imagine him taking such a step (although this could change if he thought it would benefit him ...


7

In order to nominate a running mate, you must have someone who is willing to accept that nomination. Sometimes, a running mate is a very personal choice (meaning, specific to that person running); but often, it's a person who would be well suited to run for VP on any ticket. That person, then, is not going to be willing to accept until the nomination is ...


4

Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign de facto ended on June 6th, when his opponent, Hillary Clinton, attained enough delegates to secure a majority at the Democratic National Convention, ensuring that she would be confirmed as the party's candidate for the presidency. Sanders met Clinton in person on June 14th to privately concede, and then gave a ...


20

It's an interesting question you're raising. In many cases, the V.P. candidate gets chosen from among the other competitors for the party's nomination of a candidate for President who most helped the ultimate nominee to win the nomination (or at least caused him or her the least amount of damage). We saw the beginnings of this just after the South Carolina ...


4

So it seems like 10 of 11 of my random pollees would have no reason to vote for their governor over another candidate were he running for office. You say 10 out of 11 of your random pollees have no reason to vote for your governor, but they don't have any reason to vote for any of the others either. They aren't interested enough in politics to have any ...


9

I have a few friends who are very seriously into politics. ... These are not the important voters. There is probably only a small minority of people who are really into politics, know what each candidate exactly stands for and how they held up to their promises in the past. This is a utopian view of democracy that does not stand reality. Most people do not ...


23

I'd like to add an additional possible factor to CDJB's excellent answer. Assuming that the candidate actually holds (or held) office in their home state (such as being a current or former representative, senator or governor), they must have already been elected there at least once. They are untested in other electoral markets, with no a priori reason to ...


0

The benefit to a candidate of pulling out of the race before Super Tuesday is that their votes in the states that vote in the primaries on Super Tuesday can go to the candidate that is the next most similar to themselves. If a candidate knows that they have no reasonable chance of winning the nomination, then it makes perfect sense for them to drop out of ...


9

Context for Minnesota's results Minnesota switched from a caucus in 2016 to a primary in 2020. Turnout increased from 200,000 votes to more than 700,000, so we can't say that Sanders lost his base of support from 2016 into 2020 (in fact, he got almost twice as many votes in 2020). One theory is that Sanders has a "more enthusiastic" base, and caucuses draw ...


41

In their article, Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage [1] published in the American Journal of Political Science, Lewis-Beck & Rice (1983) investigate the home state advantage using quantitative evidence, and try to explain the phenomenon. They discuss the fact that of all the public offices, the presidency is by far the office ...


2

A secondary reason that Pete dropped out when he did (per staffers posting on Twitter) is that he wanted to give all his paid staffers a month's pay and health insurance to tide them over to their next job.


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