87

This is a great question, but it's really impossible to answer for certain at this point in time. Trump's current success is defying a lot of "conventional wisdom" about how primaries go. That said, the odds are good that your reason #2 is the most likely: "Donald Trump supporters fall under a category of people with whom I have little ...


72

It would seem a reasonable assumption that the Democratic-controlled California legislature would have implemented this system in order to help elect more Democrats. There are few things more consistent than politicians favoring changes that benefit their own political interests. However, both in California and Washington, a top-two system was put in place ...


66

There are a couple of reasons why candidates do this. Firstly, because the Federal Election Commission only considers a campaign as "closed down" for good after a winding down process is complete; including the sale of campaign assets and the handling of debts. Not shutting down the campaign for good also allows campaigns to continue accepting money from ...


55

At least in the case of Pete Buttigieg, his recent statements seem to make pretty clear that he's stopped to provide room for Biden to overtake Sanders. CNN coverage "When I ran for president we made it clear that the whole idea was about rallying the country together to defeat Donald Trump and to win the era for the values that we share," ...


54

LA Times had an insightful article on the topic: "Polls may actually underestimate Trump's support, study finds", which contradicts the accepted answer's theory to an extent, and is much closer to your question's theory #1 (Having said that, I agree with @bobson that at this point we probably don't have enough hard data to be sure what the ...


49

No, Trump is not the official nominee until the Republican National Convention says so. A number of things could go wrong (or right, depending on your politics) to prevent Donald Trump from becoming the Republican party presidential candidate. The first thing to realize is the rules for "pledged" delegates vary by state. In the Republican Party system ...


44

In their article, Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage [1] published in the American Journal of Political Science, Lewis-Beck & Rice (1983) investigate the home state advantage using quantitative evidence, and try to explain the phenomenon. They discuss the fact that of all the public offices, the presidency is by far the office ...


42

Most of the answers are good ones, but they fail to acknowledge the political/tactical reason for dropping out BEFORE Super Tuesday. That reason? The 15% threshold. Democratic primary rules dictate that a candidate must receive at least 15% of the state's votes in order to get any delegates at all, and the delegates are proportionately divvied out as if ...


38

The important thing to understand is that betting odds are not a prediction of an outcome. They are a simply a balancing act that aims to ensure the bookmaker will make a profit - no matter what the outcome is. It can be implied that the betting odds reflect the crowd-wisdom, of what people think the probability of the event is - but in no way is the ...


30

Did you know who Jim Gilmore and George Pataki were before they ran for president? Unless you happen to be living in Virginia or New York or are a huge politics buff, you likely haven't. But now you know them. See? Running for president makes them better known to lots of people outside of their usual circle. This enhances their celebrity status and ...


30

In terms of not achieving the nomination of their party due to losing the primary contests directly, no. However, there have been times when the incumbent president seeking re-election has pulled out of the contest early, for example in 1968 when Lyndon B. Johnson pulled out of the race after winning the first primary in New Hampshire by only 7 percent - ...


29

A substantial factor were white primaries during the defining civil right struggles and the case law that followed from that. From a law paper on the topic "Developments in the State Regulation of Major and Minor Political Parties" (which is 74-pages long, by the way): If political parties were truly private organizations, they could exclude whomever they ...


26

For the purposes of this answer I’ll only look at the rules for the democratic party (mostly because they were easier to find). In short, the DNC will not recognize any primary or caucus held before the first Tuesday in March, with exceptions carved out for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. So if any states tried to leap-frog New Hampshire the ...


25

According to this website, today is the Hamilton Co. Municipal Primary Election, the General Election is scheduled for November 5th, 2019. On the surface, Indiana is an open primary state, so you do not have to register for a party in order to participate in that party's primary. However, there is a law IC 3-10-1-6 that reads like this: A voter may vote ...


23

I'd like to add an additional possible factor to CDJB's excellent answer. Assuming that the candidate actually holds (or held) office in their home state (such as being a current or former representative, senator or governor), they must have already been elected there at least once. They are untested in other electoral markets, with no a priori reason to ...


22

If a candidate wins 1237 or more delegates, then that candidate will become the Republican nominee. Delegates are bound through the first ballot and that would be enough for a win on the first ballot. However, there are two paths where the leader from the primaries might not be the "Republican supported candidate". First, it's possible that no candidate ...


22

Why nonpartisan blanket primaries The seats where the Republicans do not have at least one candidate are generally the seats where the Republicans weren't going to win. Taking the example from the other answer, consider a seat where the Republicans only get 35% of the two party vote. The chances of that seat electing a Republican are minuscule. The last ...


22

Betting markets are not necessarily more accurate than polls. For example, during the Brexit referendum: The political betting markets were far less equivocal, showing a wide lead for remain. In the end, the polling proved more accurate than the political bettors. [...] Andrew Gelman, a Columbia University statistics and political science professor, said ...


22

First things first. In the U.S., each party writes its own rules for nominating candidates (and each state writes its own rules for how it's elections are run). This makes for a bizarre primary system where different states have different voting rules. Those rules may further differ based on which party you're voting for. For example, both the Republicans ...


21

Even though it is "probable" even above the 99% level, he is still not officially nominated by the Republican convention. Even after he has 1,237 delegates committed to vote for him (no matter which ballot), that would only make him the presumptive nominee. That is, we assume that he will become the nominee, but he has not yet become so. Google "Republican ...


21

In addition to wanting to consolidate the "moderate" field, there is the fact that this is also a political favor to the rest of the field that may pay dividends later. Both Biden and Sanders will benefit from the fact that there's new voters in play. In 2016, Ben Carson dropped out after Super Tuesday. He was in much the same boat as Buttigieg and ...


21

It's an interesting question you're raising. In many cases, the V.P. candidate gets chosen from among the other competitors for the party's nomination of a candidate for President who most helped the ultimate nominee to win the nomination (or at least caused him or her the least amount of damage). We saw the beginnings of this just after the South Carolina ...


19

Where I am nearly everyone I know around me is planning to go for Trump. I have only one friend not in the Trump camp. It sounds like Donald Trump supporters fall under a category of people with whom I have little contact, at least of the type that would be likely to talk politics. applies to you. The Joker's line in Batman applies to D.C.: "This ...


18

No incumbent president has lost his primary race, but you have to keep in mind that primaries are a 20th century invention basically. The 1976 campaign season was the year in which primaries started to matter more than ever before, and is considered the closest a sitting President has come to losing his party’s nomination in modern history. President ...


15

The donations you cite are made to the DNC, not to a Bernie SuperPac. He doesn't have one. They are for the purpose of obtaining special favors from the DNC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Congressional_Campaign_Committee Part of Sanders' agenda is to break this cycle of indebtedness so his historic donations are from people, not corporations. ...


14

Absolutely, it happens all the time. An incumbent losing to a challenger in their own party's primary election is sometimes called "getting primaried". Search for "getting primaried" or "primaried out", you can find lots of articles and books: Getting Primaried, The Changing Politics of Congressional Primary Challenges by Robert G. Boatright We unlucky ...


14

What you are seeing are probabilities implied by people placing bets on a particular result, and reflects how much people who place bets expect to receive if they win. On BetFair exchange, if you want to place a bet on Mr. Bloomberg winning the primary, you stand to receive $9.40 for every dollar you bet if he does win. This implies, if the bet makers are ...


13

Everyone Or to be more accurate, everyone who voted, as your own link suggests, Mr Jones was the ONLY candidate in the Republican primary. This Article from the New York Times may put it in more context Mr. Jones, 70, unsuccessfully sought the nomination five times before, and his victory on Tuesday was a foregone conclusion after the Republican Party ...


12

The benefit of dropping out is that senators don't want to be seen losing their home states. It is seen as very humiliating. However, that is not the full story. Both Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren were at risk of losing their home states to Bernie Sanders, but only the former dropped out. And Buttigieg isn't a senator at all so the humiliation factor ...


11

Yes. James K Polk, from North Carolina, lost his home state but won the election of 1844. He was also the only president to have served as Speaker of the House. For other interesting (and/or ridiculous) electoral firsts, see xkcd's Electoral Precedent.


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