66

There are a couple of reasons why candidates do this. Firstly, because the Federal Election Commission only considers a campaign as "closed down" for good after a winding down process is complete; including the sale of campaign assets and the handling of debts. Not shutting down the campaign for good also allows campaigns to continue accepting money from ...


55

At least in the case of Pete Buttigieg, his recent statements seem to make pretty clear that he's stopped to provide room for Biden to overtake Sanders. CNN coverage "When I ran for president we made it clear that the whole idea was about rallying the country together to defeat Donald Trump and to win the era for the values that we share," ...


44

In their article, Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage [1] published in the American Journal of Political Science, Lewis-Beck & Rice (1983) investigate the home state advantage using quantitative evidence, and try to explain the phenomenon. They discuss the fact that of all the public offices, the presidency is by far the office ...


42

Most of the answers are good ones, but they fail to acknowledge the political/tactical reason for dropping out BEFORE Super Tuesday. That reason? The 15% threshold. Democratic primary rules dictate that a candidate must receive at least 15% of the state's votes in order to get any delegates at all, and the delegates are proportionately divvied out as if ...


38

The important thing to understand is that betting odds are not a prediction of an outcome. They are a simply a balancing act that aims to ensure the bookmaker will make a profit - no matter what the outcome is. It can be implied that the betting odds reflect the crowd-wisdom, of what people think the probability of the event is - but in no way is the ...


30

In terms of not achieving the nomination of their party due to losing the primary contests directly, no. However, there have been times when the incumbent president seeking re-election has pulled out of the contest early, for example in 1968 when Lyndon B. Johnson pulled out of the race after winning the first primary in New Hampshire by only 7 percent - ...


26

For the purposes of this answer I’ll only look at the rules for the democratic party (mostly because they were easier to find). In short, the DNC will not recognize any primary or caucus held before the first Tuesday in March, with exceptions carved out for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. So if any states tried to leap-frog New Hampshire the ...


23

I'd like to add an additional possible factor to CDJB's excellent answer. Assuming that the candidate actually holds (or held) office in their home state (such as being a current or former representative, senator or governor), they must have already been elected there at least once. They are untested in other electoral markets, with no a priori reason to ...


22

First things first. In the U.S., each party writes its own rules for nominating candidates (and each state writes its own rules for how it's elections are run). This makes for a bizarre primary system where different states have different voting rules. Those rules may further differ based on which party you're voting for. For example, both the Republicans ...


22

Betting markets are not necessarily more accurate than polls. For example, during the Brexit referendum: The political betting markets were far less equivocal, showing a wide lead for remain. In the end, the polling proved more accurate than the political bettors. [...] Andrew Gelman, a Columbia University statistics and political science professor, said ...


21

In addition to wanting to consolidate the "moderate" field, there is the fact that this is also a political favor to the rest of the field that may pay dividends later. Both Biden and Sanders will benefit from the fact that there's new voters in play. In 2016, Ben Carson dropped out after Super Tuesday. He was in much the same boat as Buttigieg and ...


21

It's an interesting question you're raising. In many cases, the V.P. candidate gets chosen from among the other competitors for the party's nomination of a candidate for President who most helped the ultimate nominee to win the nomination (or at least caused him or her the least amount of damage). We saw the beginnings of this just after the South Carolina ...


18

No incumbent president has lost his primary race, but you have to keep in mind that primaries are a 20th century invention basically. The 1976 campaign season was the year in which primaries started to matter more than ever before, and is considered the closest a sitting President has come to losing his party’s nomination in modern history. President ...


14

What you are seeing are probabilities implied by people placing bets on a particular result, and reflects how much people who place bets expect to receive if they win. On BetFair exchange, if you want to place a bet on Mr. Bloomberg winning the primary, you stand to receive $9.40 for every dollar you bet if he does win. This implies, if the bet makers are ...


12

The benefit of dropping out is that senators don't want to be seen losing their home states. It is seen as very humiliating. However, that is not the full story. Both Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren were at risk of losing their home states to Bernie Sanders, but only the former dropped out. And Buttigieg isn't a senator at all so the humiliation factor ...


9

Bloomberg is a late entry, makes the possibility of growth of support more likely; with someone like Biden, if you don't already support him by now, you're probably not going to change your mind in the future. Bloomberg is, AFAIK, also the richest candidate, which gives him more opportunities to increase his support. Also, as a billionaire, he's more of an ...


9

According to fivethirtyeight it only happened once, in 1992, i.e. Bill Clinton won without winning either state, but... the circumstances were unusual. Iowa wasn’t really contested due to the “favorite son” candidacy of Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, and Clinton lost the New Hampshire primary to Paul Tsongas, a former U.S. senator from Massachusetts. But Clinton ...


9

There are two types of delegates who will attend the Democratic National Convention: Pledged delegates (3,979): these are allocated based on the primary results Unpledged delegates (771): these are senior party figures in each state This year, unpledged delegates are not able to vote in the first ballot. In a brokered convention, this opens up 771 new ...


9

Has there been any primaries candidate that has "unsuspended", i.e. resumed the race after previously announcing a suspension? An example when this happened with a suspension of several months is Gary Hart's bid for Democratic nomination in 1988. Hart was the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in the 1988 election. Hart officially declared ...


9

I have a few friends who are very seriously into politics. ... These are not the important voters. There is probably only a small minority of people who are really into politics, know what each candidate exactly stands for and how they held up to their promises in the past. This is a utopian view of democracy that does not stand reality. Most people do not ...


8

No primary results will be released before polls close on Super Tuesday. Under Chapter 65.015(a) of the Texas Election Code (emphasis mine): Subject to Subsection (b), after the polls close and the last voter has voted, the presiding judge may announce the status of the vote count from time to time.


7

In order to nominate a running mate, you must have someone who is willing to accept that nomination. Sometimes, a running mate is a very personal choice (meaning, specific to that person running); but often, it's a person who would be well suited to run for VP on any ticket. That person, then, is not going to be willing to accept until the nomination is ...


7

Unfortunately, your idea would be likely to fall foul of 'sore loser' laws, enacted in most states with the general intention of preventing unsuccessful candidates in one party's primary from running either as a candidate of another party or as an independent candidate. These laws have been enacted by most states in some form - according to Sore Loser Laws ...


6

The purpose of a system is what it does. When some system has been around for a long enough time to have gone through several changes, and people have had time and opportunity to make changes, and nothing has changed, the conclusion is that what the system is doing is what is desired. If the people who could make the changes wanted changes, they would make ...


6

As I understand it, it is conceivable (but unlikely) that a state could be totally represented by uncommitted delegates. Also, keep in mind that between the primary and the national convention there may also be a state convention.


6

Theoretical Limit In theory, a candidate could enter the primary at the national convention, after all primary votes have been cast, and win. Officially, both parties choose their candidate by a vote of delegates from each state, which takes place at the party’s national convention. That is, nominally, the whole point of the convention. However, the state ...


6

In General Elections, Voting For Unopposed Candidates Sometimes Matters In very small municipalities and special districts, an unopposed candidate typically needs at least one vote to be elected, so your vote could make that difference if almost no one else ends up voting. In cases where, contrary to your question, there is a write in possibility and your ...


6

There is no national coordination of primaries, and in some instances the primaries are not run by the states which results in, e.g., different dates for the Republican and Democratic primaries in the same state. So the reason why those states have their primaries today is because that's when the states have decided to do that. Iowa and New Hampshire have ...


5

The only way someone can answer that this is incorrect would be to argue that the proper adverb is "always" rather than "usually". The thing about a sitting president is that in general, they've already shown they can do the job, and can get elected in a general election to do that. None of their primary challengers can say that. In addition, a President ...


5

First, 'why' questions of this sort are misleading, and difficult to address directly. The system the Democrats use for their primaries has built up over generations; their original reasons and rationales for doing things as they do them are now buried in political culture and tradition. You might as well ask 'why' women still (to this day) take the last ...


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