Hot answers tagged

30

You seem to fundamentally misread the situation. Turkey does not owe it to the EU to help them save face and solve their problems for them. Erdogan has leverage and the EU is listening to him because they need him to solve their refugee problem for them. If Turkey does nothing, people show up at the border. Turkey is under no obligation to protect EU ...


27

It's probably part of the pressure/negotiation tactics of Ankara, as they have a long history of threatening Europe with this: Turkish government representatives, and even President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself, have regularly threatened to withdraw from the deal and "open the gates" over the past several years. In fact, Erdogan began making such threats ...


18

I'm not sure the Trump administration has explained why. They clearly prefer a more conciliatory tone toward Turkey than the Senate bill on this matter: "The position of the administration has not changed," said State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus in a statement on Tuesday. "Our views are reflected in the president's definitive statement on this ...


15

Can a NATO member call Article 5 after being attacked outside its national borders? The area covered by the treaty is stated in article 6 of the North Atlantic Treaty: Article 6 For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack: on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or ...


15

As far as I can tell, there is no reason to fear a military conflict (NATO), nor any major losses for Europe's economy, if sanctions are set up. Turkey also doesn't seem to have any important allies, who would want to risk an economic conflict with the EU. While Turkey is a NATO member, there's also tension. The migrants are one thing, buying military ...


14

What is “demographic engineering” and how does it differ from ethnic cleansing? Demographic engineering may include ethnic cleansing. Ethnic Cleansing ethnic cleansing : the expulsion, imprisonment, or killing of an ethnic minority by a dominant majority in order to achieve ethnic homogeneity Demographic Engineering Books interview with Paul Morland: “...


14

Denis' comment has a kernel of truth. It's not however that the UK is not allowed to negotiate--after all the UK did conclude some 13 "continuity" deals covering 38 countries or territories. The issue with Turkey seems to be that since Turkey is in a customs Union with the EU, Turkey doesn't know under what terms (most of) UK's exports will go into ...


10

It appears that Erdogan's opposition to interest rates is moral instead of economic. He has previously said: "My belief is that interest rates are the mother of all evils. Interest rates are the cause of inflation. Inflation is a result, not a cause. We need to push down interest rates... If my people say ‘continue on this path’ in the election, I ...


8

The US - Turkey relationship is tenuous at best. And Turkey has been steadfast in its denials of this being a genocide. Erogan had harsh things to say against Germany when it labeled it as such recently. In comments published in Turkish media earlier on Saturday, Erdogan slammed German Chancellor Angela Merkel for failing to prevent the genocide motion ...


8

If Turkey has both the S-400 air defence system and the F-35, it will be able to test the two together. The US is worried that the opportunity to gather extensive data on detecting the F-35 with the S-400 system will allow Russia to improve its ability to detect and track that aircraft, and potentially other US aircraft too.


8

Can a NATO member call Article 5 after being attacked outside its national borders? Not if that attack is in Asia. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty: Article 5 The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an ...


8

Cultural and legal aspects aside, some interesting factoids can be gleaned by looking at the EU-Turkey trade, especially broken down by EU country. Turkey is a large-ish trading partner of the Eastern EU countries. Bulgaria tops the list percentage-wise with a quarter of its exports going to Turkey. Not surprisingly, they are also Turkey's best advocate in ...


8

It depends on the official determination on who is the aggressor. In any but the most blatant attacks, this determination will be a political process. Most EU countries are obliged to defend Turkey against armed attacks on their territory (Article 5 of the NATO treaty, most significant EU members are also NATO members). All EU countries are obliged to ...


7

First, it seems this was not a real/open veto, but what is called a hidden veto, i.e. one or more Permanent members of the UNSC expressing disagreement on the wording, so that no actual voting takes place. Unlike some Turkish sources, the Washington Post does not mention a veto having been exercised, but does note that both the US and Russia disagreed with ...


7

Pence and Pompeo haven’t achieved anything that wasn’t already in the making. Erdogan knew he had a limited number of days to complete his military action as, at least on paper, he was making himself an enemy of everyone. So, time was of essence. Pence’s and Pompeo’s visit was just a PR action for the White House that can now claim they haven’t let down the ...


6

The soldiers mentioned above were released on the 14th of August 2018, 167 days after their apprehension. You can find a full timeline of events about this on here (in Greek). Their release, pending their then trial, came under no conditions, given that the court established no charges could be brought forth for espionage but only for trespassing Turkey's ...


6

8 years ago (in 2012) when this refugee crises started, the streets of cities in Turkey were full of Syrians. They were cutting your way asking for money, collecting food from trash. Today (in 2020) you can not see anybody in the streets. Somehow they were absorbed into the system. The official number is 4.7 million people. And Turkey is not a rich country. ...


5

I heard that Turkey has launched strikes against Syrian Kurds. Why is Turkey is doing that? It's part of a longer conflict between the Turks and the Kurds. From Wikipedia's article on Kurdish–Turkish conflict (1978–present): The Kurdish–Turkish conflict is an armed conflict between the Republic of Turkey and various Kurdish insurgent groups, which have ...


4

The Wikipedia article on Operation Olive Branch makes it quite clear that the Turkish state has no tolerance for criticism. To the extent that they might acknowledge security problems do exist in Afrin, I would be surprised to find them taking any responsibility for causing this and can find no evidence that they ever have. They blame all problems in the ...


4

"Good friends" may be an exaggeration, but "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" probably explains some of that. Turkey (or rather Erdogan) sees itself/himself as the leader of the Islamic/Sunni world (and this puts it at odds with Iran somewhat) but even more so with Iran's other Islamic/Sunni enemies, namely Saudi Arabia and the UAE. For example, Turkey and ...


4

Turkey accuses Russia of encroaching into territory they consider their own Idea of agreement was pretty much straightforward: Russia and Turkey would force their respective proteges (government for Russia, and rebels for Turkey) to withdraw from designated demilitarized zone (this goes especially for heavier weapons) and establish ceasefire. Both Russia ...


3

It seem unlikely Erdogan will change his stance toward the EU over simple declarations. The EU has become somewhat accustomed to calling his bluff in such contexts. E.g. in 2016 Angela Merkel’s top adviser on Europe dismissed threats by Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to pull out of the EU’s refugee deal with Ankara as "bluster," according to leaked ...


3

Russia and NATO aren't on good terms The BBC has an article on Turkey's purchase and it contains a section on US concerns. This follows from the fact that NATO and Russia aren't on friendly terms. From the BBC article: So why is Washington so concerned about Turkey buying the S-400? For a start it is almost unprecedented for a Nato country to buy ...


3

According to news.com.au: Mr Trump issued a brief statement overnight saying that America “does not endorse this attack”. The Independent has that in more detail: The comment was made in a statement released by the White House, in which he claimed Turkey is committed to ensuring the safety of civilians, in spite of concerns that the country will ...


3

According to the Guardian: A crackdown on migrants in Turkey, home to more than 3.6 million displaced Syrians, and renewed fighting in Syria appear to have spurred the jump. In August, Turkish authorities reported a sevenfold increase in those making the crossing into Greece. Nearly half of the 56,000 refugee and migrant arrivals in Europe this year have ...


3

The expat Turkish site Ahval offers the following commentary: Erdogan’s theories on the relationship between inflation and interest rates may come partly from his experience in business. Before entering politics as mayor of Istanbul in 1994, Erdogan used to run a food company. Turkish CEOs tend to borrow heavily to cover their operating expenses. ...


3

Turkey has some number of United States made planes. The natural way to set up the S-400 anti-aircraft system is by flying planes above it and targeting them with the system (without firing, just aiming). The people who will be doing this targeting will be from Russia. They will then train Turkish personnel to do it. See the problem? The US doesn't ...


3

A modern weapon system consists of hardware, software, organization, and training. A new SAM would have to be integrated into the NATO-wide air defense system. If Turkey were to work with the Russians to integrate S-400 into the Turkish part of the NATO system, they would have to explain to the Russians how the NATO air defense works. In theory, they could ...


3

Countries can only do so much, short of war, before they run out of worthwhile means of applying pressure. That is one of the reasons not to jump to sanctions. The EU commission, as has already been said, is rather legalistic and appears to have a genuine institutional commitment to liberalism and the principle of supranational institutions, and the ECJ ...


2

I'll begin by stating that the details regarding this issue are highly classified, and corruption and arresting for personal and political gain are very common. For instance, in smaller communities, those with known ties to the Gulen movement or other charities are more likely to be reported by other citizens, with the imprisoned having a much slower and ...


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