16

Speaking nationally, Democrats currently have a 6%-7% advantage over Republicans in terms of voter representation. In fact, Democrats have a lead among every demographic group except white males without a college education. However, Democratic voters tend to be clustered in urban and suburban areas, which attenuates their voting power somewhat and leaves ...


15

This effect has been fairly well researched, for example by Schaffner, Streb, & Wright in their 2001 paper Teams Without Uniforms: The Nonpartisan Ballot in State and Local Elections in Political Research Quarterly. They examine a number of US elections, including those in the city of Asheville, North Carolina as it switched from partisan to nonpartisan ...


12

The data for this question, and many you ask, is readily available from the MIT Election Lab, specifically here I used the "U.S. President 1976-2020" dataset. The correlation between the figures you ask is r=-.08, p=.6. If you remove Utah, which had a successful third party candidate in Evan McMullin in 2016 (receiving 21.5% of the vote), the ...


5

I do not think that this single image alone supports the title assertion "higher turnout benefits Republicans." Trump stands out as a "Republican," because of his cult of personality, and the fact that he somehow cast himself as anti-establishment. So it's somewhat plausible to think he polled better among non-voters than voters. Remember ...


5

How long ago might this party have started advocating legislation with more restrictions? For the Republican party in particular it began with the Southern strategy to wrest control of southern states from the Democrats by attracting conservative white voters who were afraid of desegregation and the Civil Rights movement. Prior to this, southern states were ...


4

"Why" questions of this type are hard. Many of the trends that can be observed in different demographic "slices" counteract each other. Still, you could gain insight analyzing in terms of the correlations between education, party affiliation, turnout, age, wealth/income, race, and urban/rural location. By default, young voters have ...


3

In the UK, elections, and referendums are decided by those who vote. Those who don't vote are ignored. There is no claim made that the voters form a statistically representative sample of the electorate. Merely that the winner of the election is decided only by the votes that are cast. From the AV election legislation: The Minister must make an order ...


1

I don't think that there is a general answer. It depends upon how credible the pitch is. Online disseminated election boycotts that have had success have occurred abroad in the past, and somebody probably heeds any message out of hundred of millions of voters. But, I'm not aware of scholarly research addressing the question, or even credible quantitative ...


1

TLDR: they estimate turnout rates using data from the British Election Study, which in some cases has validated vote records. The answer to your question is yes, at least for the 2017 election. From their article in the International Journal of Forecasting: For each application, we estimated the conditional probability of turnout p(T_i = 1|X_i) as a ...


Only top voted, non community-wiki answers of a minimum length are eligible