@JonathanReez I think you wanted to say 'Might is Right', but yeah, I agree. ;)

@Evargalo Removed the more colorful language and added more references. ;)

@Obie2.0 Oh, you know, that's why long discussions are - very rightly - erased by moderators. The answers to answers of answers of comments deviate from the original discussion. This was just an answer to the last comment by JoeW about the Cuban Missile Crisis being about nuclear weapons and not military alliances, implying that the USA would never start a war over a country joining a military alliance, which, if you also believe, I have a beautiful long red bridge in San Francisco I'd love to sell to you.

@JoeW So what? The USA can start a blockade about nuclear weapons or obliterate a whole country about fictional WMDs, why do you think they won't find alliance membership not enough to start a war for, when non-existent weapons of mass destruction were?

If Ukraine's bid for NATO membership represents a choice by a sovereign NATO, then surely preventing Cuba for joining the Varsovia Pact was an aggression that violated Cuba's sovereignity. Or only pro-Western countries are allowed to chose their military alliances? And it's not only nuclear missiles who could pose a threat. If China tries to build an antimissile-shield in Cuba like the one NATO has tried to build in eastern Europe, you can bet a second cuban missile crisis unfolding.

@JoeW In the Angela Merkel autobiography, recently published, she states that Putin told her “You won’t be chancellor for ever. And then they’ll be a Nato member". You can call it a excuse, but I see his point. A change of governments in those members who had been vetoing Ukraine's membership could lead to Ukraine's admission to NATO, and once voted in, a subsequent return of goverments opposed to its admission wouldn't change anything. Once in, it's permanent status, they won't be kicked out.

And remember that after Trump v. United States (2024), as long as it can be slyly constructed as an official act, Trump can do whatever he wants to, without legal repercussions.

I think you have a good argument in saying that the chasm was already present in the last election, and it was nearly as wide as current polls reflect, but you should cook a little bit more the answer to gain an upvote. While a 3% of margin of error could account for the differences in gap measurements between the 2020 and 2024 elections, for the 2020 election gap to be wider than the current one (so your answer of 'Yes' could be right) it needs the 2020 poll to have underestimated the gap to the max of that 3%, and the 2024 to have overestimated equally. That's unlikely.

It has been long settled (this article is from 2011) that it was Israel - and particularly Netanyahu - who derailed the Oslo accords. Netanhayu has even publicly boasted about it in later years. Clinton was just lying there.

@Jacob3 Fox News, for example. But it also happens with israeli newspapers. I do think Obie2.0 should distinguish between sources from the Gaza Health Ministery and those from Israeli sources, as in, the former has been proven time and again quite reliable, while the latter had been caught lying many times. Quoting a US presidents famously known for his veracity, "there are very fine people of both sides of this issue".

I'm not voting to close since we don't have a specific "too naive for this world" reason but the answer to the question is "because real world is not like a Brandon Sanderson novel".

@o.m. In many countries in the EU, it's not that easy. Just like buying cocaine, it's not only that you have to pay a hundred times more than its producing price, is that you have to know someone who sells it. With drugs, it's relatively easy, but you don't bump into shady people offering AK47 for sale in the outskirts of a pub or disco. You must have contact with gangs or terrorist organizations. Almost anyone owning an illegal weapon here had also served some time in jail already - prison is a great place to know gun sellers. But someone without antecedents wouldn't know where to look for.

I like the answer, but I concur with the comment by NoDataDumpNoContribution: both of the attempts against Trump were carried by the type of people that wouldn't get a license in a saner country than the USA. Sure, in Germany two people of very similar profiles managed to strike at politicians using knives, but that's just because in Germany, being much more safer, politicians usually walk around without bodyguards.

@Obie2.0 Well, they aren't the same UN workers, so... But I agree with the sentiment.

I’m voting to close this question because it is not even clear if the premise is correct. I suggest to wait for clarifications and reopen later if needed.

The fact that Reagan, the man that dismantled the unions and put an end to the era where working hard meant earning more money, giving birth to the actual days of billionaires and beggars and extreme unequality and polarization, is credited with being a great president, both from Reps and Dems, will tell you everything you need to know about polls and politics in general. This is a popularity contest, it's not based on merit or facts, just on how well different personalities connected with the average american.