Why Iran does not sell drones to Ukraine instead?

Question

Iran provides Shahed-136 drones to Russia, to launch them into Ukraine. This way, Iran obviously gets into friction with the EU, the US, and other world powers that are standing on Ukraine's side.

Ukraine likely also has money and needs cheap drones. Why would Iran risk conflict with/sactions from the EU and US by supplying Shaheeds for Russia? Why not sell them to Ukraine instead as Turkey does? Even if for some reason Ukraine finds no use for them, buying all the drones and simply trashing them still seems cheaper than shooting them down later.

Is it that this war means something to Iran, and they are seeking more than just money by making and selling weapons to Russia?

Answer 1

Since the Iranian government seems to be reluctant to even admit that they are doing it, not to speak of explaining why they are doing it, we can only resort to (hopefully) reasoned speculation.

First, I don't think the "selling drones to Russia incurs the wrath of the EU/US"-argument is particularly strong here. Iran already has a heavy bunch of sanctions slapped on them anyway. In fact, I have no seen any reports of new sanctions being discussed in this context - the screws may already be as tight as they get.

Second, it is not clear to me that buying Iranian drones would be a feasible option for Ukraine. A lot of the money Ukraine uses to buy weapons comes from the US and the EU. I really don't see the US tolerating Ukraine using US subsidies to pay Iran; and the EU wouldn't be happy with that either. Of course Ukraine could try "We're not paying Iran with the money we got from you, but with this other money we got from taxes/crowd funding/etc" as an argument. But it does seem risky to potentially annoy significant supporters in this way.

Third, there may just be some "the enemy of the friend of my enemy is my friend" Cold War-style logic going on. The Iranian government hates the US, so if the US gives weapons to Ukraine, giving weapons to Russia may feel appropriate. Side benefits are getting real-life data on how well or not the drones operate against a wide range of Western air defences. (With accompanying downside: The West learns how well their stuff works against Iranian drones. We may see Gepards being put back into use or so.)

Fourth, there is more than money Russia can offer. A Russian-Iranian alliance all but eliminates the risk of the UN Security Council passing anything against Iran. Depending on just how desperate Russia is, there might even be some nuclear technology on the negotiating table.

Answer 2

Ukraine likely also has money and needs cheap drones.

Ukraine doesn't really have money. It's mostly NATO, and the US specifically, that have money; even if Ukraine has some money to spend on its own - it would still be subject to US scrutiny. And that money will not buy Iranian products, including drones.

Moreover - military drones are not simply consumer off-the-shelf products: They would require some level of cooperation between the Iranian military-industrial sector and the AFU. Here again, US/NATO control would likely not allow this (if the Iranians were inclined to offer such a thing, which they likely aren't, see below.)

the EU, the US, and other world powers that are standing on Ukraine's side.

Well, it's debatable whether they're actually standing on Ukraine's side, but be that as it may, world states which can be said to be in that category are the US, most EU members, and Australia and Japan, which are strongly US-influenced - if we choose as our criterion sanctions against Russia (see map) ; and other countries are not taking sides strongly, or are neutral, or are supportive of Russia / opposed to NATO expansion.

In particular, Iran is a key member of BRICS - the block of states which could be said to be in opposition to US hegemony (or US-European hegemony). BRICS countries are not supporting the NATO side of the proxy war (i.e. not "standing by Ukraine") - and Russia is one of them. If not a weapons embargo on both sides, it makes strategic sense for Iran to sell drones to its block-ally, Russia, especially since it was, and is, the likely military victor in the war.

Answer 3

buying all the drones and simply trashing them still seems cheaper than shooting them down later

This might not have been the case when you wrote the Q, but nowadays Russia has licensed the production and they're assembling them in Russia, mostly with essential Chinese parts, like the motor. (And yeah the onboard electronics are smuggled 'grey imports' from the West, routed through 3rd countries, like on much of Russia's as well as Iran's weapons.) Later on Russia started to produce closely resembling clones that probably aren't even licensed from Iran. So Iran probably has little say at this point, even if they changed their mind. Which of course they haven't, given the talk of them having also sent ballistic missiles to Russia a bit later. Albeit it's still a mystery why the latter are not showing up on the front line; reportedly Iran hasn't sent any launchers yet, for a rather unclear reason.

Anyhow, conversely Iran expects Russia to deliver them Su-35s jets, S-400 air defense etc. etc. (They've got S-300 but a radar thereof was reportedly knocked out by Israel in April, in response to the Iranian missile attack on Israel of then.) Iran's best spy satellite to date was built and put in orbit by Russia in 2022. So, Iran is also [co-]dependant on Russia, probably more than the other way around. They can't afford to piss off the Russians by selling weapons to Ukraine, given their choice of opposing (USA's ally) Israel at least in a proxy war, nowadays turned more direct.

Yeah, other answers have mentioned the sanctions on Iran. These are probably less of a hindrance than one might think if Iran were willing to accept some quid-pro-quo from the West in exchange for not sending stuff to Russia. However, what they expect is probably a relaxation of the sanctions, which is probably not in the cards given the intensification of the fighting between them (including their proxies) with Israel and even Western countries via the Houthis.