Why does Russia reject China's peace proposal?

Question

On 24 February 2023, China issued a twelve-point peace plan outline, calling for a cease fire and peace talks. The same day, Zelenskyy indicated he was willing to consider aspects of the proposal, while Russia's foreign ministry stated that it welcomed the Chinese proposal. Zelenskyy stated that he planned to meet Xi because it would be useful to both countries and global security. However, Vladimir Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected the Chinese peace proposal, saying that "for now, we don't see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Peace_proposal

Russia's spokesperson said Russia rejected the peace proposal because the conditions are not there to bring this whole thing to an end. What are the conditions he's referring to and why exactly Russia doesn't consider the peace proposal fair?

Answer 1

Russia does not want to move out of the annexed territories of Ukraine. And the 12 item proposal by China lists the respect of all countries' territorial sovereignty as the first item, read it at my.china-embassy.gov.cn. Hence Russia is not willing to accept this peace proposal.

It looks like there was some playing around, kind of like maybe Ukraine is somehow not a country or the annexed territories are somehow now rightfully part of Russia, but China does not officially recognize either.

Answer 2

TLDR: China's peace plan is so vague that Putin can easily agree to "most" of it

China's plan, published last month, does not explicitly call for Russia to leave Ukraine.

[...] it calls for peace talks and respect for national sovereignty, without specific proposals.

But Ukraine has insisted on Russia withdrawing from its territory as a condition for any talks - and there is no sign that Russia is ready to do that.

[...] In a joint news conference after talks with Mr Xi ended, Mr Putin said: "Many provisions of the Chinese peace plan can be taken as the basis for settling of the conflict in Ukraine, whenever the West and Kyiv are ready for it."

He didn't exactly say what provisions he likes and which he doesn't in China's plan, but just blamed Ukraine for not being "ready". I.e.: vague plan, vague endorsement. The only thing clear in all of this diplomacy spectacle is Russia laying the blame on Ukraine and the West. Nothing new under the sun.

From an earlier piece, which doesn't have direct quotes on this:

The Russian Foreign Ministry on Friday thanked Chinese efforts but said that any settlement of the conflict needed to recognize Russia's control over four Ukrainian regions.

I managed to find a more extensive coverage of that:

"We appreciate the sincere desire of our Chinese friends to contribute to resolving the conflict in Ukraine by peaceful means... We share the views of Beijing," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement.

"With regard to the Ukraine crisis, Russia is open to achieving the goals of the special military operation by political and diplomatic means," Zakharova said.

However, this would also mean recognising "new territorital realities" in Ukraine, Zakharova said, referring to Russia's unilateral annexation of four Ukrainian regions - Donetsk, Lukhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - as well as of Crimea.

And since that's not explicit in China's plan... it's a case of "we 'like' your plan, but we like ours better".

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BTW/aside: this style of Chinese plan (rather vague talking points) are not really new. Does anyone remember China's 2017 plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians? That too was described by some Israeli academic as a "façade of diplomatic activism while adhering to existing policies of minimal involvement [...] all share three characteristics: they do not contain innovative ideas; they do not reflect Chinese willingness to invest significant resources in the resolution of these conflicts; and no one has taken them seriously." That's quite unlike the [later] Iran-Saudi talks that China was willing to host.

Answer 3

What are the conditions he's referring to and why exactly Russia doesn't consider the peace proposal fair?

It's hard to say with utter certainty, as Russia is not fond of speaking clearly, but Russia's official position is that the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts are Russian territory, and thus the portions of those territories that are held by Ukrainian forces are occupied territory. Obviously, Ukraine isn't going to withdraw from this territory in exchange for a peace treaty, so any peace treaty that Russia would sign at this point would, according to the Russian position, be ceding Russian territory, which is not acceptable terms. It's clear that Russia will not agree to any peace treaty until they either capture this remaining territory or it become manifestly clear that they will not be able to do so. Or Putin is overthrown,

Answer 4

Russia has not rejected the plan, as can be seen from a statement by Putin:

Putin supported China's peace plan for Ukraine, but there is a nuance

The Presidents of Russia and China made a joint statement following Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow. Vladimir Putin, among other things, touched upon the peaceful settlement of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The Russian leader said that China's peace plan "can be taken as a basis for a peaceful settlement when the West and Kiev are ready for it. But so far we have not observed such readiness on their part."

In turn, Xi Jinping said that China "adheres to an objective position, supports the resumption of negotiations."

The Presidents of Russia and China have also announced economic agreements. In particular, Russia promised to continue supplying oil and gas to China, including completing the Power of Siberia—2 gas pipeline project.

In addition, the statement following the visit said that "the Russian side confirms its commitment to the one China principle, recognizes that Taiwan is an integral part of the PRC, opposes Taiwan's independence in any form, firmly supports the actions of the Chinese side to protect its state sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Also the quote by Peskov was taken out of context by the Wikipedia article. As can be read in that article, nothing was said about rejecting the plan. Here is the complete statement:

"We paid a lot of attention to our Chinese friends' plan," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, adding that: "for now, we don't see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace."

Answer 5

Putin may like the Chinese plan, but he may not like the postive PR that China will get due to it. If Chinese mediation is successful, the press will say China has become Russia's equal. While Putin and XI are pragmatic and Russian - Chinese relationship have peaked at the moment, it is still an uneasy alliance. Nevertheless, from the perspective of international diplomacy, Ukraine is the one who is at fault as their diplomatic corps hasn't behaved professionally with the Chinese, while Putin has been smarter.

Seeing that Zelensky hasn't even met the Chinese premiere to discuss the so called "chinese peace plan", while Putin just met and discussed it with the Chinese, it is easy to see why the Russians are dismissive of the Chinese peace proposal - if the Ukranians don't consider the proposal (or China) seriously and aren't even willing to talk about it, what's the point? Unless somebody is willing to talk, even through a third-party, where's the conducive conditions for diplomacy to happen?

When the Chinese presented their plan, it was met with immediate criticism by the Ukranians:

Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office Mykhailo Podoliak voiced Ukraine’s arguments against China's "peace plan." According to him, it means a defeat for Ukraine and freezing of the war ... According to him “Chinese peace plan” contains points that contradict each other. China does not seek to end Russia's war against Ukraine in peace. Instead, it may prolong the war and lead to Ukraine's defeat. - Presidential Office Representative Explains Why Kyiv Is Against China's "Peace Plan"

Zelensky toned it down immediately and publicly claimed that he was willing to discuss it. But other Ukrainians continue shooting their mouths and criticising the plan publicly:

"China is absolutely not neutral," said Merezhko, who represents Zelensky's Servant of the People party and chairs the parliament's foreign affairs committee. "It conducts military exercises with Russia. It openly blames the West and NATO, not the actual aggressor. Russia and China are the core of a coalition waging hybrid war against democracy and undermining the rules-based order."

... Bohdan Yaremenko, also a member of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, said that expectations were already low in Kyiv. "No one was anticipating anything of the Chinese," he told Newsweek. "For a global superpower to take a year's worth of time thinking about the situation and then to deliver what was delivered is very tragic." - 'No Hope': Ukraine Lawmakers Dismiss China Peace Talk After Putin-Xi Meet.

This is amatuerish diplomacy as it even disregards one of the golden rule of diplomacy and etiquette - "If you don't have anything nice to say about somebody then just shut up". (Ukrainian diplomacy has been almost like social media campaign, with knee-jerk reactions attacking anyone who says something the Ukranians don't like or don't want to accept).

At the same time, Ukraine has been claiming that China or Xi has been "snubbing" them and ignoring their "invitation". There are two things to note here:

1. Obviously when you publicly criticise a country or its leaders, should anyone be surprised that they are being cold-shouldered? (Especially when Asians are very sensitive to public criticism).

2. Ukraine is the smaller power in the world order. Ukraine is the one who needs a diplomatic solution to this war. It is not only stupid, but insulting to China, to send "invitations" to Chinese leader asking them to come down to Ukriane to meet Zelensky, when he should be the one seeking a meeting with Chinese leadership, and even be willing to meet junior leaders to show his willingness to diplomacy (even if it may not be fruitful).

It's understandable that Zelensky cannot go against the advise of the US, who have been a very strong and supportive ally of Ukraine. But this is problematic for Ukraine as Zelensky isn't directly talking with the Chinese, and instead indirectly letting the west speak for them with China. To the Chinese, this confirms Russian assertions that Ukraine is now a "puppet of the west".

After mediating between the Iranians and the Saudis, the Chinese leadership want to be more on the world stage and be seen as a powerful player. That need of the Chinese leadership could have been exploited by Ukraine, even if only for PR value. The Chinese only like to publicise their successes, and not failures, and thus do not like to work under public glare. But Ukrainians either don't grasp this, or the western media isn't deliberately helping them by always publishing anti-Chinese perspective.