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The Calais refugee camp ("Camp de la Lande" or "Calais Jungle") existed from January 2015 to October 2016, coinciding with the peak of the European migrant crisis. The camp drew global media attention and became a significant local issue.

Marine Le Pen became a member of the French Parliament in 2017 by winning the election in Pas-de-Calais's 11th constituency. Prior to 2017, this constituency consistently elected representatives from the left-wing Socialist Party (PS) and the French Communist Party (PCF). Similarly, in 2017, the 7th Constituency, which included the Calais camp, shifted from the left-wing PS to the right-wing LR party.

How big of a role did the Calais refugee camp play in Le Pen's 2017 election victory? I've tried doing my own research but couldn't locate a definitive answer.

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  • Do you mean if people voted for FN because of it, or if it featured prominently in FN's campaign? Commented Sep 14 at 0:13
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    There is basically no (geographical) connection. The strength of the RN in some former left-wing industrial districts in the North but also the East of France is a general (and much commented) development over the last 20 years. To the extent that what was happening in Calais influenced the results at all, it would be by making the topic salient and increasing media coverage, not because people in this particular district are anywhere close to the place where migrants were staying.
    – Relaxed
    Commented Sep 14 at 0:57
  • @MakeStackExchangeGREAT4ever both? Commented Sep 14 at 3:42
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    There's footage here from her 2015-2016 campaign youtu.be/Kgy0reHmY8k?t=285 Footage of her is interspersed with that from critics, so you have to jump around a bit. Commented Sep 14 at 9:04

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Note that it is a common tactic of political parties to send their leader to a safe constituency for parliamentary elections.

This is not a coastal riding and is apparently 120km away from the Calais Jungle.

So, if the camp runs from 2015 to 2016 and she gets elected in 2017...

She already ran there in 2012, cuz best score in presidentials.

In the 2012 election, Le Pen, now leader of the FN, stood in Pas-de-Calais' 11th constituency, which now contained Henin-Beaumont following redistricting, where she had got her best results in the presidential election

In 2012, one opponent was our dear Melenchon, so it's probably a high dissatisfaction area (see the 2007 note).

So, she already had it as her safe haven before the Calais crossings became a large-scale thing.

In fact she ran there in 2007 as well

Wiki gives another reason for picking that riding:

In the 2007 election, Le Pen and her substitute Steeve Briois[clarification needed] stood for the FN in the Pas-de-Calais' 14th constituency, Hénin-Beaumont, a former coal mining area with high unemployment. Le Pen expressed the view that due to unemployment, offshoring and insecurity, the constituency symbolised the major problems of France. Le Pen's campaign committee was led by Daniel Janssens, who had previously served for 24 years as the socialist deputy mayor of Leforest.

Following their link - dated June 6, 2007

“This constituency is symbolic: unemployment, délocalisation, insecurity, it brings together the major problems of France”, says the vice-president of the FN who refutes the term “parachuted” by recalling that she was elected for the first time in 1999 in the regional elections in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region.

Marine Le Pen was present in the 2002 legislative elections and was one of four frontist candidates from Pas-de-Calais to reach the second round.

In the 13th constituency (Lens) it achieved 24.2% in the first round then 32.3% in the second.

She decided in 2007 to slip into the neighboring 14th which includes the town of Henin-Beaumont with a view to the 2008 municipal elections. Her deputy, Steeve Briois, achieved 32.1% in the 2002 legislative elections.

In a constituency marked by an unemployment rate higher than the national average and the closures of large companies such as Metaleurop (870 job losses) the National Front candidates have for several years achieved scores higher than their national average.

She doesn't even talk about immigrants there - "délocalisation" means offshoring.

Don't get me wrong. I am sure the camps don't hurt her voting prospects. But she picked that riding before the camps and the crossings became an issue.

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  • Thanks, I'm convinced. But what about the 7th district which had the Calais jungle? Is my theory correct that it switched to a right-wing party due to the refugees? Commented Sep 14 at 3:51
  • @JonathanReez: a much broader area on the coast started voting for RN in 2024. The camp had been gone for almost a decade now. The yellow vests etc. probably had much more to do with it. Commented Sep 14 at 7:37
  • @JonathanReez: see e.g. connexionfrance.com/news/… Commented Sep 14 at 7:44
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    "Towns where RN scored well also have higher rates of home ownership, attract less new house construction and have longer commuting distances, which means those workers have been more vulnerable to the fuel price shocks of the last two years. The average commute was more than twice as long in areas where RN came first as in areas where Macron's party led, according to Reuters calculations. Despite RN's anti-immigrant rhetoric, the areas where it did best have a far smaller proportion of immigrants in the local population, on average." Commented Sep 14 at 8:00
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    Of course, one might also surmise that those areas also want to keep things that way, i.e. not see a surge in immigrants. Commented Sep 14 at 8:01

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