Why do people believe that if Putin ceases to be Russian president, the Russo-Ukraine war will cease?

Question

It seems like quite a lot of people think that the current war in Ukraine is entirely down to Putin, and if Putin dies / is assassinated / is replaced in a coup etc, then the war will end. Examples:

WASHINGTON -- South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is facing intense pushback from all corners of Washington after calling for the Russian people to end the Ukraine war by assassinating President Vladimir Putin.

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The only way out of this crisis is to make Putin’s failure in Ukraine so disastrous for Russia and its genuine interests that his own elite will have no choice but to remove him.

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Some protests say "Stop Putin" instead of "Stop Russia".

The implication is that 1) the current war is entirely because of Putin, and Putin only; and 2) if Putin loses power somehow then the war will cease because his successor will not continue the war.

How do we know that Russian foreign policy will change (and by how much) should Putin lose power?

Related: Why do news articles often refer to the leader as opposed to the country? However, the current anti-Putin (but not anti-Russia) news seems more precisely targeted on Putin than the answer to that question would indicate.

Answer 1

I think this question answers itself.

1. Opposition to the war in Ukraine — and the sanctions placed on prominent players and the nation as a whole — is the main reason anyone in Russia would want to risk an assassination or coup attempt. Putin has been in power a long time (and secured power for the foreseeable future) without any such efforts; the only thing that's changed is the war.
2. Anyone who successfully wrests power from Putin is going to face internal struggles and the need to consolidate his new position of power. In that kind of transition a foreign war would work against interest. The new leader would want to stabilize the international situation quickly in order to focus on internal problems.

It's extremely unlikely (and I suspect impossible) that any new leader would be more hawkish and expansionist than Putin. Can you imagine a group staging a coup because they think Putin is not warlike enough?

Answer 2

Because the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine is a war of choice. There were no imperatives leading to the war. There was no immediate threat. There was no attack being waged against the Russian Federation. The decision to start the war was driven solely by the desire to step in a certain historical direction by Putin. Regardless of whether he was right or wrong (and he was wrong) in evaluating the historical trends, there was no immediate cause of action other than Putin's opinion.

Can a different leader have the same opinion? Sure. But even Putin wouldn't start the war today if he knew how it would turn out. But, unlike Putin, a new leader (even one who shares all of Putin's historical views) would not be burdened with all the responsibilities arising out of having made the decision to start on a path to what turned to be a disaster.

Answer 3

Because, whenever there is a dictator in power, they create a vacuum in the hierarchy of intellect. Most of the time, it is created automatically. Other times, it is created deliberately. Therefore, when a dictator dies or is removed by revolutions, the system of the country takes a long time to regroup and to start functioning in its full power.

This is observed times and again throughout history.

For instance, the USSR plunged into chaos on multiple occasions because of this.

The recent examples are Iraq and Libya.

Answer 4

You've really presented three cases: Putin dies, the Russian people assassinate Putin, and the elite remove him from power. The first case, in which Putin merely dies, is the least conducive to the ending of the war. There's little indication that there was a push from the Russian elite for the war, so once Putin is removed, whoever takes power may decide to withdraw, but that's not as strong as in the other cases.

An assassination of Putin by Russian people would require either someone to be very lucky, or to have broad support. The assassination would both be an effect of broad support, and evidence of that support, emboldening further dissent. It could easily trigger a revolution and/or civil war, and if the anti-Putin side wins that conflict, they would end the war in Ukraine.

If Putin is removed by the elites, it would signal a turn from Putin's policies, of which the war is the most prominent. It, similar to an assassination, would signal the ascendancy of anti-Putin factions, and may cause people to jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon, as that side would then appear to by the side winning. Generally speaking, coups succeed once everyone thinks they will succeed, and assassinating Putin would be a strong sign that the coup will succeed. Anyone thinking of not joining the coup would have to wonder, "If they can assassinate Putin, why wouldn't they be able to assassinate me?" It would also provide cover for a withdraw, by purging the Putin loyalists, blaming them for it, and claiming to have been against the war from the beginning.

Answer 5

During the history of the Soviet Union, change of the leader quite often resulted significant changes in the country. This is also when the leader simply died from the old age (J. Stalin, L.Brezhnev).

It is not very clear, why. Theoretically kings and dictators should not matter much in the history and be replaceable, if not him then somebody else. It must be strong social forces behind every dictator: he though he is leading them, actually they just pushed him in front of themselves.

But this view contradicts the experience, or maybe death of the current leader initiates changes that are long mature.

Answer 6

Why do people think that if Putin ceases to be Russian president, the Russo-Ukraine war will cease ?

By people, you surely mean people in Western Europe and the Western Hemisphere.

And I often ask myself the same question when I read supposedly educated people, people old enough to remember WW2 and even past students of modern history making the same foolish speculation on TV.

Every dog will bark at its own doorstep, the saying goes. And the Russian dog has so much more vigilance than most given its appalling losses (~ 30 million people) in World War 2. It may be "politically incorrect" to say so these days but Russian people in general - not just Putin or whoever preceded/succeeds him - will object to having a NATO country in a neighboring state, moreover one that, though distinct in culture and language, has such long ties with Russia. They will also be mindful of Hitler's viewing the plains of the Ukraine as merely a lebensraum for the Greater Germany.

That is the realpolitik of the current situation. And it will have to be considered in depth before we are likely to have a permanent cessation of war and full withdrawal by Russia. Sanctions will hurt Russian people but not deter their determination to defend what they feel as the threats around them.

It is a great pity that someone of international stature was not invited to mediate a solution acceptable to this situation before it boiled over some years ago. Many political cruxes involving conflicting rights have been resolved around concord wordings respecting the rights of all concerned but in the shared context of the common right of all: to simply live.

So I doubt if ordinary people in the West think removing Putin will really remove the war. But people in Western media like journalists and commentators are simply afraid to express an officially unpopular - and admittedly very tough - truth. I wish Fisky was still around.

Answer 7

This belief is based on historical experience. Only in the last century Russia got defeated 2 times after the leader of the country was overthrown. So if it was posible to defeat Russia 2 times this way, why should it not work again. There are even more examples from an earlier history of Russia, but the closest example is 1917 when Russia got defeated in World War 1 after the tsar was overthrown and killed.

Some people also might think if Putin dies there wil be something like Second Miracle of the House of Brandenburg when the Empress Elizabeth of Russia had died and her nephew Peter signed peace treaty.