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I know that such data is hard to find, due to the clandestine nature of irregular migration, but is there approximate but reliable data (e.g. from government or UN sources or from well-known think tanks) on how many illegal immigrants each country hosts?

I'm not asking about any specific country like the US, just interested in the general trend around the world.

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  • Official numbers do not exist for Germany at least, only inofficial calculations that basically say 850,000 at the end of 2023.
    – Philip Klöcking
    Commented Sep 2 at 22:36
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    @PhilipKlöcking, does that number include those "required to leave, but not required to leave," i.e. no Duldung, no Gestattung, but also not vollziehbar ausreisepflichtig?
    – o.m.
    Commented Sep 3 at 4:58
  • "reliable data (e.g. from government or UN sources or from well-known think tanks)" Reliable probably means small error but even renowned sources may have a hard time coming up with such a thing. Even the UN would probably sometimes simply cite questionable numbers.
    – NoDataDumpNoContribution
    Commented Sep 3 at 6:14
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    Ideally, ever data point has two components: a best estimate and estimates of the uncertainty in the best estimate. Also, if what you are really concerned about is relative rates between countries, a consistent method is more important than actually accuracy in absolute terms. Relative measures often don't measure the numbers directly but instead measure a proxy for them. Also "illegal" in one country may have wildly different consequences than "illegal" in another country (the source country matters too), e.g., an American violating immigration laws in Canada v. N. Korea.
    – ohwilleke ♦
    Commented Sep 3 at 17:45
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    Illegal immigrant isn't a category used in research on this topic as far as I know. What you will find is estimates of the number of undocumented or irregular migrants. Beside a different connotation, one difference is that many undocumented migrants are people who may have immigrated through a legal path but do not presently have a properly documented right to stay where they are. Depending on the specifics, they also may or may not have a path to become documented migrants. Conversely, not every irregular border crossing necessarily implies “illegal immigration” (cf. refugees).
    – Relaxed
    Commented Sep 4 at 19:31

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I found some estimates, collected by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, but they're a bit dated (2013):

The United States of America is one of the few countries with relatively accurate estimates of undocumented migrants. Using a “residual methodology”, the number of undocumented migrants in the United States of America was estimated at 11.7 million in March 2012 (Pew Research Center, 2013). For the 27 countries of the European Union in 2008, the CLANDESTINO Project estimated 1.9–3.8 million undocumented migrants (CLANDESTINO, 2009). In Australia, the Government estimated that in 2012 about 61,000 persons were in irregular situation (Australia, Department of Immigration and Border Protection, 2013). The Federal Migration Service of the Russian Federation estimated the number of undocumented migrants at 3 million in 2013 (RIA Novosti, 2013), whereas the OECD had estimated a total of 5–6 million undocumented migrants in Russia in 2012 (OECD, 2012).

I don't think the UN regularly collects such info/stats on the legal status (unlike for migrants in general). UN DESA has updated publications of the same kind on International Migration published in 2017 and 2020, but those two [unlike the 2013 one] don't have any stats on irregular migrants. If you have a lot of patience, you can check out the sources cited there and perhaps find more updated info from at least some of those sources.

Terminology note: the UN prefers the term 'irregular' to 'illegal', just in case you want to search UN's website for possibly more such info. (They even have a poster/note why they prefer that term.)

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  • Is there some simple explanation what the US does different compared to EU countries that gives it so much more accurate estimates?
    – quarague
    Commented Sep 6 at 13:30
  • (+1 a while ago) The MirreM project might also be interesting.
    – Relaxed
    Commented Oct 7 at 5:59
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The term 'illegal immigrant' can be used to describe many different situations, including people who crossed the border illegally and managed to avoid notice by the authorities, people who crossed the border illegally, claimed asylum, and received permission to stay while that claim is evaluated, and people who received an order to leave and did not comply. The first of these groups obviously has no official count.

There are approximatelyly 12 million immigrants in Germany who have not gained citizenship, and depending on the categories approx. 0.5 million, 0.8 million, or 1.2 million could be counted as 'illegal.'

  • As of 2020, Germany had 5.2 million immigrants under EU freedom of movement. For these migrants registration is mostly a matter of tax law, and they can enter first, register only later when they find housing and work. These are legal immigrants.
  • 2.5 million immigrants had permanent residence status without EU freedom. That count is somewhat more certain. Some might have left without de-registering. These are legal immigrants.
  • 600 thousand had non-permanent residence status. e.g. student visa. Again a reasonably certain number. These are legal immigrants.
  • 2.0 million had various kinds of recognized refugee status. These are now legal immigrants.
  • 410 thousand had their immigration status under review.
  • 780 thousand had their immigration request denied, but
    • 450 thousand of those were permitted to stay temporarily and
    • 330 thousand were required to leave, yet approximately 80% of those were not required to leave immediately for various reasons. This source gives 45 thousand required to leave for 2020, which does not quite match 20% of 330 thousand but comes close.
  • Then there are those whose presence is unknown to the authorities. For 2016 there was an estimate of half a million, but that number is highly controversial.
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    This answer answers the question basically only in the first sentence and starts with obviously. But why is it obvious? If you are for example a surveillance state, counting people might be doable with enough cameras. Or some random sampling and then extrapolation, which would carry an error. Why is the number given in the last sentence highly controversial?
    – NoDataDumpNoContribution
    Commented Sep 3 at 6:12
  • @NoDataDumpNoContribution Because by definition it is based on estimates and different people got to very different numbers.
    – quarague
    Commented Sep 3 at 6:21
  • @NoDataDumpNoContribution, the second-to-last bullet point gives the number of people whom the government could deport (no legal stay, all legal appeals exhausted, counted in official statistics) and the last bullet point gives the number of people who are thought to be illegal-and-not-counted. The bullet points before that are necessary because categories like "illegal entry, legally permitted to stay during asylum application" are necessary for context. Not mentioning those would be misleading, simlply adding them to the total would also be misleading -- they get a bullet point.
    – o.m.
    Commented Sep 3 at 10:14
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    @NoDataDumpNoContribution It seems pretty obvious because illegal immigrants can generally be expected to make themselves as inconspicuous as possible to authorities, which will seriously interfere with accurate counts. The US Census, IIRC, has special dispensations assuring illegals that they will not be hassled on the basis of their census info. But an illegal would have to be fairly comfortable and trusting with American society to fully believe in that (even if it is likely true in practice).
    – Italian Philosopher
    Commented Sep 3 at 22:10
  • You're confusing accuracy and precision and precision is relative. There are errors bars around any national statistics (yes, even in surveillance-happy countries with extensive bureaucracy and mandatory registration like Germany). There are also specific challenges in measuring the number of undocumented migrants but it doesn't really make sense to proclaim that one type of measure is “accurate” while the others are not.
    – Relaxed
    Commented Sep 4 at 19:24

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