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In the 2002 French presidential election, Jacques Chirac from the centre-right Rally for the Republic won with a large margin against Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front.

I have a suspicion that the National Front, if they reach the run-off election for the 2017 French presidential election, may have a better chance if they face a left wing opponent rather than a centre-right opponent. What does polling currently indicate the influence National Front's opponent has on how many people would vote for the National Front, vote for the National Front's opponent, or abstain from voting?

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    I think it is quite unlikely that a left wing opponent will make it to the run-off. – fedorqui Nov 21 '16 at 10:10
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    Oh, now I see wikipedia has a full article on this: Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2017 →Opinion polls for expected second round of voting. According to this, Marine Le Pen would just defeat Hollande. – fedorqui Nov 21 '16 at 10:14
  • @fedorqui that was silly of me! They've been polling for this stuff since 2014. – Andrew Grimm Nov 21 '16 at 10:18
  • @AndrewGrimm - asking for "how are these future events looking according to the polls" in general is a very good fit for the site, imho. – user4012 Nov 21 '16 at 15:33
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    Of course yes, that's common sense. Marine Le Pen was almost guaranteed to pass second round if she was against either Hollande or Sarközy (and that no matter the scores on the 1st round) Now, both of those seems more and more unlikely, so it also means her chances to win the 2nd round are significantly dropping, all moderate people would be willing to vote for anyone against her to stop right extremism, even if they're no better than either Hollande or Sarközy, because French people doesn't hate that other candidate yet. – Bregalad Nov 21 '16 at 18:39
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No, not really, or not that much anyway.

But on the other hand, if the left and right in France screw up and not "connect" with regular folks, then all bets are off.

If the FN gets into the 2nd round of the presidential elections, then all the left and right will join against them like they did in 2002.

See : https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_r%C3%A9publicain_(Ve_R%C3%A9publique)

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  • I like to think that a majority of French dislike the FN, no matter what, and will vote against it in a likely second-run opposing it to anybody else. Regarding your answer, it's not clear what you mean by "if the left and right in France screw up and not "connect" with regular folks". Do you mean that they make mistakes during the campaign or while in office ? And at this point, it may be better to say (according to polls…) "If the FN doesn't get to the second round", sadly – SdaliM Nov 21 '16 at 19:35

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