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If one reads France24's vignettes of the young, left-wing voters before the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election, you could almost swear none were going to vote Macron:

  • "Macron or Le Pen, we're screwed in any case. For my first election, I'd hoped for better" [film student]
  • 'Blank ballot or Le Pen vote' [...] "Marine Le Pen is better than Macron on social issues. And Macron, after all, put cabinet ministers in office who conducted far-right policies [...] I find the protectionism that Marine Le Pen is proposing more interesting than Macron's ultra-liberalism" [another 18-y.o. student]
  • "I will cast a blank ballot," [3rd student]
  • [4th student said she would not vote in the 2nd round of pres. election, but] "I'm clinging to the legislative elections to get a left-wing majority."

So did Macron get any votes from young, left-wing voters in the 2nd round? Are there any post-election/exit polls to see how many young left-wing voters stayed home, how many cast blank votes, and how may voted for Le Pen or Macron, in the end?

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  • Is someone who thinks Marine "the headscarf is an Islamist uniform" Le Pen is better on social issues a young left-wing voter, though?
    – Obie 2.0
    Commented Mar 19, 2023 at 16:33
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    Oh, I know that there are people who say that they are left-wing voters who would vote for semi-fascist candidates because they impose more tariffs, I just question whether they really are. That's the same interviewee who implied that Trump was better for immigrants in the US than Obama, of course (never mind that the reason he couldn't deport as many people as he wanted was lack of cooperation from Democratic state and local jurisdictions).
    – Obie 2.0
    Commented Mar 19, 2023 at 16:44
  • @Obie2.0: reasonable criticism of self-labelling, but that still leaves nobody in that little group who was willing to say they considered Macron the lesser evil enough to vote for him. Aside, I see that Melenchon also touted various forms of qualified protectionism. bfmtv.com/economie/… ; rtbf.be/article/…
    – 264 champagne bottles on ice
    Commented Mar 19, 2023 at 16:53
  • And fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_M%C3%A9lenchon#Commerce
    – 264 champagne bottles on ice
    Commented Mar 19, 2023 at 17:02
  • Some definition of "left wing" would help - Melenchon supporters? Socialist Party members? Voters of all candidates left of Macron in the first round? Including those who didn't vote or have never voted? There were polls on who people would switch to for the second round based on who they voted for in the first round, although not seeing data by age.
    – Stuart F
    Commented Mar 21, 2023 at 15:12

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I can't find anything related especially to the young left wing voters, but left wing voters in general have more voted for Macron than for Le Pen.

Among people who voted for Melenchon (far left) at first round, 42% voted Macron at 2nd round, 17% Le Pen, 17% voted blank, 24% did not vote. Among people who voted for Jadot (green, centre left) at first round, 65% voted Macron at 2nd round, 6% Le Pen, 13% voted blank, 16% did not vote.

Vote carryover

Source (in French): https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2022/second-tour-profil-des-abstentionnistes-et-sociologie-des-electorats

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  • The margin of error on these seems pretty big. According to the IFOP poll linked by Stuart F in a comment those proportions for the Melenchon voters were 33/23/44 for Macron/LePen/null-blank-or-abstention in the 2nd round... 33 [IFOP] vs 42 [IPSOS] is like 9pps. So like 5pps margin of error per poll to explain such a difference. Interestingly French pollsters don't seem to be in the habit of publishing any info/claim on a margin-of-error in such polls.
    – 264 champagne bottles on ice
    Commented Apr 12, 2023 at 6:52
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    The difference between the two polls is in the moment they were made: the IFOP poll was made between the two rounds, asking on voting intentions, while the IPSOS poll was made after the second round, on the votes made. But I agree that the margins of error are probably huge.
    – Gwen
    Commented Apr 12, 2023 at 7:32

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