I seem to remember such predictions, though obviously they are lost in the noise of the reverse situation that actually happened. But Does anyone have links to any notable predictions/analysis/commentary on Gore winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote?

  • 1
    While the question is undoubtedly ontopic, I would posit that its answer is wholly irrelevant; as any conclusions anyone (including yourself) can draw from any such answer would be irredeemably tainted by survivorship bias (and due to a severe lack of data points, namely only two elections that had this occurrence; you can't draw a meaningful statistical analysis such as hits vs. misses for any single source's predictions).
    – user4012
    Sep 11, 2017 at 19:45
  • I'm not attempting to draw any information from the accuracy or not of the prediction. The ultimate use of the answer is in a paper I'm writing showing flip flopping of positions due to political expediency. If my memory serves correctly, prior to Bush/Gore, the general opinion was that Democrats had an electoral advantage. I'm looking for examples of the GOP saying "this is unfair", and examples of the DNC saying "deal with it" (or leaning commentators), which have now been flipped. Sep 11, 2017 at 19:51
  • I see where you're coming from. I'm not sure random predictions would fulfill your need; as opposed to straight out examples of high level GOP complaining of unfairness of EC advantage (for any reason); but that's just a personal opinion.
    – user4012
    Sep 11, 2017 at 19:59
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    @user4012 It happened 4 times, not 2: 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016
    – Federico
    Sep 11, 2017 at 20:03
  • @Federico - I suspect pre-fourth-electoral-system examples wouldn't exactly work in modern political science paper, but you are indubitably correct.
    – user4012
    Sep 11, 2017 at 20:04

1 Answer 1


Google has a Tools tab with options that allows to restrict results up to whatever date (up to a point, and this was in Google's early days, but it works pretty well then nonetheless). If you set it up to e.g. Oct 31 2000, and google >Bush Gore "popular vote"<, and weed out the numerous false positives, a few interesting links show up. For instance:

You might get better insights by refining the date range somewhat. But from the looks of it, it's a clearcut no. The prediction that was usually being put forward held that Bush would win the popular vote and Gore the electoral vote, rather than the other way around.

  • I tried this before I posted. I could find a date range for news (which returned no hits) but could not find one for web. How did you get those records you linked? Sep 11, 2017 at 21:21
  • @JasonCoyne: click the Tools button to the right, and use then head off to the "Any time" dropdown on the line beneath it. Sep 12, 2017 at 7:05
  • I'm not sure if you're aware (i don't think you're from USA) but SNL is a comedy show, not a respectable news source. Great answer otherwise
    – user4012
    Sep 12, 2017 at 13:22
  • Also (this is the problem with the question more so than with the answer, as i noted to OP in comments on the question), "prediction" isn't really useful to OP's stated purpose which is to write about examples of hypocricy from politicians whining about "unfairness" of EC.
    – user4012
    Sep 12, 2017 at 13:24
  • @user4012: I'm aware it's comedy, but for some reason the couple of times I ran into it on YouTube gave me the impression it was more of a satirical commentary more than pure comedy - like e.g. the Daily Show. Sep 12, 2017 at 13:45

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